Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 250722
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
322 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOG THAT COVERED MUCH OF UPPER MI THIS MORNING HAS BEEN QUICKLY
DIMINISHING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR FROM W
TO E. EXPECT THE FOG TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT
AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SRN MANITOBA MOVES OVER FAR
NERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ADJACENT PARTS OF ONTARIO BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
TONIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE
CROSSES TO THE NE...BUT WITH MOISTURE QUITE LIMITED AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAINLY NE OF THE CWA...PRECIP WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE IN MOST
LOCATIONS. DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER FAR NERN
LUCE COUNTY CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE PATH. ONLY EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE MAINLY OVER THE ERN/NERN CWA.
HOWEVER...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY
SPREADING FROM SERN MN INTO WRN WI WILL ADVECT INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL UPPER MI TONIGHT BEFORE BEING SWEPT SE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

NOW FOR THE WINDS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE
TIGHT BETWEEN THE 987MB SFC LOW OVER JAMES BAY AND THE 1020MB RIDGE
STRETCHED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND IA...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF
AN ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
WNW 925MB WINDS OF 38-45KTS ACROSS SRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NRN UPPER MI AT
18Z...STRENGTHENING TO 40-50KTS AT 00Z SUN. IF COLDER AIR WAS MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT /SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE 0C AT 850MB/ AND THERE
WAS MORE OF AN ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT...WINDS WOULD LIKELY GUST TO
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE KEWEENAW AND POSSIBLE NERN UPPER MI
NEAR THE SHORE ON SAT. HOWEVER...ONLY EXPECT GUSTS TO 40MPH MAX IN
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FAVORED AREAS. DO THINK WINDS JUSTIFY A
GALE WATCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WAS COORDINATED WITH THE LONG
TERM FORECASTER TO BE ISSUED WITH THE AFTERNOON LAKE PACKAGE.

OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S ON SAT UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 12Z
SUN FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z MON. THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MON AND MON NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME MOISTURE AND 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SUN NIGHT AND THIS MOVES OUT ON MON BEFORE
BOTH RETURN FOR MON NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
AND THEN BRING IN POPS SUN NIGHT INTO TUE WITH CHANCE POPS
PREVAILING MOSTLY. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST. DID KEEP IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. THIS TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST 12Z WED.
MORE ENERGY DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU WITH A DEEP
TROUGH BEING CARVED OUT OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA 12Z FRI WITH COLD
AIR OVER THE AREA. ACTIVE PATTERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
COOLING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE
END OF IT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
NO DRY PERIODS SEEN. HAD TO ADD IN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WED THROUGH FRI AS ECMWF AND GFS SHOW 850 MB
TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN ENOUGH TO CAUSE LAKE EFFECT PCPN WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW -6C AND WITH LAKE SUPERIOR
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 6C...THAT WOULD JUST BE ENOUGH FOR LAKE CLOUDS
AND WITH TROUGHING IN THE AREA...LAKE ENHANCED PCPN. ENDED UP GOING
CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERLY LAKE EFFECT SNOWBELT PRONE AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS A SURGE OF DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE
SFC WILL LEAD TO LLWS OVERNIGHT AT KSAW. WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
AND CLEAR SKIES/SUNSHINE RESULTING IN GOOD MIXING...WINDS TODAY WILL
BE GUSTY TO 25-35KT AT ALL TERMINALS...STRONGEST AT KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A LO PRES OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL DEEPPEN AND TRACK E TO FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES BAY BY SAT EVENING...DRAGGING ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. UNDER THE TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT WNW GALES TO 35-40 KTS TO
DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE E HALF. ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR SAT MORNING
THRU SAT EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT A HI
PRES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SAT TO MOVE TO THE OH RIVER VALLEY
ON SUN. THE CLOSER APPROACH OF THIS HI WILL DIMINISH THE GALES.
ANOTHER LO PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL TRACK E...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUE. AS
THE LO TRACKS NE TO JAMES BAY ON WED...ANOTHER W GALE IS LIKELY FOR
TUE INTO WED UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ON ITS SW FLANK. A
WEAK HI PRES RIDGE WILL THEN DRIFT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WED. THE APPROACH OF THIS HI WILL
DIMINISH THE GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     LSZ265>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC






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