Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 221735
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
135 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

REMOVED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR ALL EXCEPT THE FAR EAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...AND THE LINE OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IS QUICKLY EXITING THE AREA. MODELS ARE HINTING AT ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING THIS IS OVER DONE SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR
NOW. INCREASED THE WINDS AS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE
LOW/ AND A DECENT PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET MOVING THROUGH THE CWA
HAVE LED TO WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 40KT AT KCMX...AND IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOW 30S WEST AND CENTRAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SEVERE MCS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN CWA...WHICH PUTS THE FOCUS IN
THE SHORT TERM ON THE NEXT 12 OR FEWER HOURS.

EXPECT THE MCS TO CONTINUE E IN LINE WITH NCEP HIGH-RES WRF ARW/NMM
AND NSSL WRF. SHOULD SEE OVERALL INTENSITY/SEVERITY OF STORMS
DECREASE AS THEY MOVE E DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE ERN
CWA. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE WRN HALF OF THE
CWA /WHAT PORTION THAT IS STILL AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE/. MAIN
THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A MARGINAL HAIL
THREAT ALSO POSSIBLE. HAVE BULK OT PRECIP OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z
WED...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS UNTIL 06Z WED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RIDGE WILL BUILD N THRU THE ROCKIES INTO
NCNTRL CANADA...FORCING A TROF TO DEEPEN OVER ERN N AMERICA. FOR
UPPER MI...THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER THOUGH
TEMPS WILL ONLY BRIEFLY FALL BACK BLO NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. FLOW
WILL RELAX/DEAMPLIFY A BIT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR
SOME WARMING...AND THEN THE ERN TROF WILL REAMPLIFY SIGNIFICANTLY
NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...TEMPS NEXT WEEK WILL FALL BACK MORE NOTABLY
BLO NORMAL AS WE WRAP UP JULY. AS FOR PCPN...DRY WEATHER DURING
THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ERN TROF WILL
TREND MORE UNSETTLED OVER THE WEEKEND AS FLOW RELAXES AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRACKS ESE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT WEEK...PCPN CHANCES
WILL REVOLVE AROUND WHERE AXIS OF AMPLIFYING TROF SETS UP AND HOW
AMPLIFIED THE TROF BECOMES. WITH RECENT ECMWF RUNS INDICATING A
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD LINGER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING WED/THU...A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS
UPSTREAM MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES TO NCNTRL CANADA
SUPPORTS SFC HIGH PRES SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE THRU NRN ONTARIO INTO THE ERN TROF THU WILL
PUSH A SFC TROF S TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURE
WILL STAY N AND E OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS SHORTWAVE WILL BE TOO FAR TO
THE N AND E OF FCST AREA. WED WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE TWO
UNDER WEAKENING GRADIENT NRLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH. IT
WILL BE COOLEST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR E OF KMQT WHERE TEMPS LAKESIDE
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S WITH LONG FETCH OF WIND ACROSS
THE LAKE. IN THE INTERIOR...MIXING TO 850-800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS
YIELDS MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 70S. 850MB TEMPS RISE A FEW
DEGREES FOR THU...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INTERIOR MAX TEMPS
RISING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F. UNDER A DRY AIR MASS
(PRECIPITABLE WATER 40-50PCT OF NORMAL) WITH LIGHT/CALM WIND...WED
NIGHT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT. FAVORED MIN TEMPS AT OR BLO THE LOWEST
AVBL GUIDANCE. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS MAY SLIP JUST BLO 40F.

SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET ONE MORE DRY DAY IN ON FRI THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF A SHORTWAVE PUSHING THRU THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE.
GIVEN RATHER WEAK 850MB FLOW/WAA INTO UPPER MI...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST FRI.

OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON INTO MON...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRACK ESE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY REAMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN
TROF. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCT SHRA...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER AT TIMES SAT/SUN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR/VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW PUSH THROUGH. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR ALL THREE SITES...FINALLY CALMING AFTER THE 00Z/6Z
TIME FRAME WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT
CMX TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO 35-40KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN
TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 15KTS LATE TONIGHT. KIWD/KSAW WILL SEE GUSTS
UP TO 25-30 MPH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED OVER ALL BUT FAR EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING FROM NORTH CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO QUEBEC OVERNIGHT WILL BRING GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY IN LATER TONIGHT WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCD
SHORT TERM...TITUS/MCD
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...MCD
MARINE...TITUS






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