Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 031930
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
330 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH NRN
MANITOBA INTO THE NRN LAKES. AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH OVER NW
ONTARIO WILL BE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM AS MODELS
FCST IT TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THE SFC...WEAK RIDGE HAS MOVED SE IN ADVANCE OF
TROUGH/COLD FRONT FROM NW ONTARIO. SOME MID-LVL WAA CLOUDS AHEAD OF
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE SPILLED INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN
UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...MODELS SHOW THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER NW ONTARIO WILL MOVE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SUPPORTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 250-300 MB
JET MAX NOSING INTO MN. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES INTO THE 200-500 J/KG
RANGE WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7C OR GREATER MAY
ALSO SUPPORT SOME ISOLD/SCT TSRA...OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF
UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF
SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHRA MAKING IT
INTO THE CNTRL AND EAST CWA BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE PCPN ARRIVES...TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...GUSTY SW WINDS TO 20-25 MPH ALONG WITH RH VALUES
INTO THE 25-35 PCT RANGE COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS FOR
MAINLY THE WRN/CENTRAL INTERIOR. ALTHOUGH FACTORS ARE MARGINAL FOR
MEETING LOCAL CRITERIA DECIDED TO ISSUE A WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
STATEMENT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF ELEVATED WILDFIRE
CONCERNS/POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA AS FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY E OF THE
REGION. CAA WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASED MIXING AND GUSTIER NORTH WINDS. COULD
SEE NORTH WINDS GUST 25-30 MPH OVERNIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FM
KEWEENAW EAST TO WHITEFISH POINT. LOWERING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
WITH ADVECTION OF INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR BEHIND FRONT COULD ALSO
ALLOW SOME LIGHT -SHSN TO MIX IN WITH -SHRA/-DZ MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NCNTRL. EXPECT COVERAGE OF -SHRA TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
MID-LVL DRYING AS SHALLOW MOISTURE CONFINED BELOW -10C ISOTHERM WL
SUPPORT MORE -DZ.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY GIVES WAY TO RISING
HEIGHTS THU INTO FRI AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST. SFC
HIGH MOVES ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH DRY WEATHER. BLO FREEZING
TEMPS LIKELY OVER INTERIOR WEST BENEATH RIDGE AXIS ON WED NIGHT.
ONCE THE SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST...WEAK SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES
WILL EXTEND A WARM FRONT TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. WILL
BEGIN TO WARM AWAY FM THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH READINGS INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S INTERIOR WEST. MIN RH WILL DROP BLO 30 PCT...BUT
WINDS LOOK LIGHT. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTN. DEEPER MIXING AND H85 TEMPS 14-
16C WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
DESPITE THE WARMTH...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS SFC-
H85 DWPNTS WILL BE ON THE RISE SO MIN RH SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN THU
AND LIKE THU THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

SUMMERTIME WARMTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CRASHES THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI NIGHT. BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED
WITH THE FROPA. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF TSRA WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY /H7-H5 LAPSE RATES CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE
AT 6.5C/KM AND MUCAPE UP TO 250 J/KG/...BUT SINCE STRONGEST PVA AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DO NOT EXPECT
STRONG TSRA. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS BUT
MOSTLY DRY. GUSTY NNW WINDS 20-30 MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND UP TO 20
MPH INLAND. IF WATER TEMPS WERE WARMER ON LK SUPERIOR SETUP WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED SWIM RISK. CURRENT WATER TEMPS AROUND 40 IN
THE NEARSHORE SO NOT AN ISSUE QUITE YET.

WARMING TREND THROUGH REST OF EXTENDED /DAYTIME HIGHS 60S AND MAYBE
SLIGHTLY WARMER/ AS UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST CONUS TO
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER GREAT LAKES.
DIFFERENCES ARISE MON INTO TUE ON HOW QUICK UPPER TROUGH BRINGS SFC
LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS QUICKEST WHILE GEM
IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. ECMWF IS A COMPROMISE.
REGARDLESS...WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TOO HIGH IMPACT AS EVEN WITH
GFS IDEA BULK OF HIGHER INSTABILITY BOTH SFC AND ELEVATED REMAINS
TOO FAR SW TO BRING ANY STRONGER TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS UPR MICHIGAN.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TUE SHOWS MORE CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
ATTM...BUT IF THE SLOWER IDEA WORKS OUT...DRY WEATHER WOULD HOLD
UNTIL LATE TUE AND TUE WOULD BECOME MORE OF A FIRE WEATHER ISSUE
WITH TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES...LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND
MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT KSAW WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO WED
AFTERNOON. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED AT KSAW LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
RESTRIC VSBY. KCMX AND KIWD WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LESS LIKELY THERE. IN
FACT...THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AT KIWD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT OR
ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WSW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
AND ASSOC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL
BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT AND INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE
EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH
WINDS TO LESS THAN 20KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS
TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS



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