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000
FXUS63 KMQT 101058
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
558 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 557 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

MAIN CONCERN IN SHORT TERM IS ANOTHER BOUT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LES
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE THIS MORNING WEST AND TOWARD EVENING FAR
EAST. EXPECT THE PROLONGED LES EVENT TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF WED
FOR THE WEST AND THROUGH WED NIGHT FOR FAR ERN SHORELINE
AREAS.

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS NOAM.
THERE ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WITHIN THIS BROAD TROUGH. ONE
SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS MN WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE WAS
FARTHER UPSTREAM DIVING DOWN FROM SASKATCHEWAN. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WAS STILL RESULTING IN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
DROP INTO SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A FEW
DOUBLE DIGIT BLO ZERO READINGS ALONG THE WI BDR. ASSOC FORCING AND
WEAK WAA AHEAD OF MN SHORTWAVE HAS BROUGHT SOME CLOUD COVER INTO
AREAS ALONG THE WI BDR. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA
THE REST OF THE MORNING BRINGING TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TOWARD
SUNRISE. WIND CHILLS HAVE HOVERED JUST BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY
THIS MORNING...GENERALLY FROM 15 TO 25 BELOW. WINDS BACKING SW AHEAD
OF APPROACHING TROUGH FROM MN HAVE ALSO PUSHED LES BANDS FM KEWEENAW
OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE MODERATE TO STRONG Q-VECT CONV ASSOC WITH MN
SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY BRING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
(LESS THAN HALF AN INCH) TO MAINLY THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN FROM SASKATCHEWAN WILL
SPREAD MODERATE 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH
WILL PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF ENHANCEMENT TO LES BANDS SETTING UP IN
STRONGLY CONVERGENT WRLY FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE LAKE.

WINDS VEERING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV SHOULD BRING ANOTHER STRONG
AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONV INTO NW UPPER MI AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH AROUND 18Z. EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LES
OVER WRN UPR MI BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING OVER KEWEENAW/NRN
HOUGHTON AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SRN
HOUGHTON/BARAGA AND GOGEBIC COUNTIES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
BRIEF 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL RATES AS DOMINANT LES BAND LIKELY TRAVERSES
THE AREA. STRONGLY CONVERGENT WNW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY INTO HOUGHTON...ONTONAGON AND BARAGA COUNTIES
AS POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BAND COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. ALTHOUGH DGZ DOES COMPRESS INTO THE LOWEST
2KFT OF ATMOSPHERE UNDER FAIRLY STRONG CAA (8H TEMPS LOWER TO AROUND
-25C BY WED MORNING)...THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL OMEGA NOTED WITH
THIS LAYER. STRONG WINDS HOWEVER COULD RESULT IN FRACTURING OF
DENDRITES LEADING TO LOWER SLR THAN OTHERWISE EXPECTED. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP WITH THE NEAR 20/1 SLR FOR FIGURING SNOW ACCUMS. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED LES EVENT IN STRONGLY CONVERGENT WNW
FLOW...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE LES ADVISORIES FOR THE 4 WRN COUNTIES
AND WILL ALSO INCLUDE BARAGA COUNTY. SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY
FROM TWIN LAKES THROUGH PELKIE TO ROCKLAND WILL LIKELY EXCEED A FOOT
OF TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WINDS VEERING OVER THE ERN LAKE THIS AFERNOON WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A
DOMINANT LES BAND ONSHORE OVER THE FAR ERN CWA THIS EVENING. STRONG
CONVERGENCE SETTING UP OVER THIS AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FROM
LAND BREEZES OFF ONTARIO AND UPPER MI WILL ALSO LEAD TO PROLONGED
PERIOD OF HEAVY LES AS INVERSIONS FROM 8-10 KFT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF PD ALONG WITH FAIRLY FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT COULD EXCEED 18 INCHES FROM
GRAND MARAIS TO TWO HEART ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A LONG TERM LES ADVISORY FOR ERN ALGER COUNTY
AND A LES WARNING FOR LUCE COUNTY.

WINDS CHILLS TONIGHT COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE WI BDR INTERIOR WEST AS ACTUAL TEMPS DROP NEAR
-10F.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 534 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

CONTINUED COLD WITH PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN A TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE
WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DEEP TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEND MULTIPLE WAVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE FIRST TROUGH AXIS CROSSING UPPER MI AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD. MODERATE TO HEAVY LES WILL BE ONGOING FOR WNW SNOW
BELTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LUCE AND FAR EASTERN ALGER
COUNTIES WHERE A SFC LAKE-ENHANCED TROUGH WILL BE ASSISTING WITH
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE SHORT
TERM FORECASTER AND WFO GAYLORD...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING WAS
ISSUED FOR LUCE COUNTY THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEE THE
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS ABOUT THE LES POTENTIAL
TONIGHT.

THE MAIN SFC TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT WILL BE PUSHING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE A WEAK
LAKE-ENHANCED TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE VEERING
OF WINDS BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO DISRUPT DOMINATE
LES BANDS AND SHOVE THEM FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTO LUCE AND ALGER
COUNTIES. A QUICK BURST OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS
AS THIS OCCURS. MEANWHILE...MULTI-BAND LES WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN UPPER MI FOR WNW SNOW BELTS AS -25C H8 AIR CONTINUES TO
FILTER INTO THE CWA. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT A MORE DOMINATE BAND MAY
EXIST INTO CENTRAL HOUGHTON COUNTY AND FAR NORTHERN ONTONAGON
COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HIGHEST THERE.
INVERSION HEIGHTS FALLING TO BELOW 5KFT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND
BACKING WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SFC RIDGE WILL REDUCE LES
INTENSITY GREATLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A VERY COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE IN STORE...THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HINGING ON THE GRADIENT FLOW TO LAX BEFORE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
BRUSH THE AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. A SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DRIFTING
ACROSS NORTHERN WI THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...THOUGH CONTINUED MODEL
SUPPORT OF A LAKE-ENHANCED TROUGH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.
HOWEVER...SOUNDING FORECASTS FROM THE INTERIOR WEST SHOW DECENT
ENOUGH SFC DECOUPLING TO ALLOW FOR APPRECIABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS MUCH OF WI LATE IN THE
NIGHT AS A VERY WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS SE TOWARD THE AREA. THIS
TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED BY THE
MODELS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL IMPACT OF CLOUD-COVER ON
TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. WITH ALL THAT SAID...JUXTAPOSITION OF BEST
COOLING FACTORS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR CWA WHERE TEMPS COULD
BOTTOM OUT BELOW -20F. WITH GRADIENT FLOW OF 5-10 MPH...WIND CHILLS
WILL APPROACH -35F. ADVISORY/WARNING DECISIONS WILL BE TRICKY WITH
WINDS EXPECTED BELOW THE 10 MPH CRITERIA. HOWEVER...IF THE SFC DOES
NOT DECOUPLE ENOUGH...THE IMPACT OF HIGHER WINDS ON THE WIND CHILL
WILL BE GREATER THAN HAVING COLDER TEMPS...SO WIND CHILL HEADLINES
WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION QUITE YET.

THURSDAY...WAA KICKS IN RIGHT AWAY THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL RESULT
IN A RELATIVELY WARMER DAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT WITH THIS WAA MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG THE WI BORDER...BUT DRY SUB-CLOUD AIR AND WEAK SUPPORT
WILL LIKELY LIMIT MOST PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK CLIPPER WILL BE
ENOUGH TO DISRUPT REMAINING LES.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS
DID NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO DEVOTE TO THIS PERIOD AND MODEL
VARIABILITY HAS BEEN MORE THAN DESIRED. NW MID-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AHEAD OF THIS MAIN TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AND BRING A BOUT OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW. ONCE
AGAIN...DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH MORE THAN A
DUSTING OF SNOW.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO PICK UP ON A STRONG SFC LOW DEVELOPING
ANYWHERE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW THE APPROACHING NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE
IMPACTS THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH. A SECONDARY LOW IS ALSO PROGGED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ON THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET. OVERALL...FORECAST OF THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN HIGHLY FLUID FOR THE COMING DAYS UNTIL THE
PHASING OF THE TROUGH/UPPER JETS IS WORKED OUT BY THE MODELS. WITH
THAT SAID...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOW WOULD BE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...LIMITED MOISTURE WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE AN ISSUE AND MAY RESULT IN MAINLY A LAKE-ENHANCED SNOWFALL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

KIWD...WILL BE VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW
RETURN TUE MORNING WITH APPROACH OF NEXT DISTURBANCE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THIS REMAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

KCMX...IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR LATER TONIGHT AS THE WIND BACKS TO THE SW AND THE HEAVIER LES
BANDS SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA. AS WINDS GO BACK WEST BY TUE
AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN TO VLIFR WITH BLOWING
SNOW AND HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS AFFECTING THE TAF SITE
THROUGH TUE EVENING.

KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA TUE MORNING WILL BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES INTO EARLY
TUE AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 557 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

AFTER A DECREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING...ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND COULD PRODUCE
GALES FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
CONTINUED MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL PUSHES OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE
LAKE. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
     EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ002-003.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ004-084.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MIZ009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ007.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ245-248>251-265>267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     LSZ266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS