Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 191638
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1138 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A FEW CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH CLEARING
SKIES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE GRADUALLY
BECOMING WESTERLY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

A LOOK AT AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP40 500MB
HEIGHTS AND WINDS REVEALED A COMPACT SHORTWAVE ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND MOISTURE WERE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...SO CONTINUED
WITH A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP
ON RADAR ACROSS WESTERN WI...BUT THESE WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND.
MEANWHILE SUBSIDENCE LED TO CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST...AND BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUPPORTED DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. THE END
RESULT IS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A RATHER SHARP SHIFT FROM THE CURRENT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATER THIS EVENING.
GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING...500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATE UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION WILL BE
EAST OF US BY THEN /OVER THE GREAT LAKES/. WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM THIS LOW FOR A
PORTION OF MONDAY...BUT OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. THE OVERALL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY
TUESDAY...WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AND THE
RIDGE EXPANDING AND MOVING OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST ACROSS
WESTERN MN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE THERMAL RIDGE WHICH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WELL IN TO THE
60S ARE EXPECTED OUT WEST...BUT JUST LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
COMING ASHORE OVER THE WEST COAST AND WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
AS IT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD...AMPLIFY...AND PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
HOWEVER...WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ITS EVOLUTION. THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND CUT OFF ALONG THE COAST AND STALL THERE FOR
INTO FRIDAY. WITH ITS PRESENCE... THE LOW TO OUR WEST WILL BE
STEERED NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR REGION FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND BOTH THE GFS
AND EC AGREE IN A DECENT SHOT OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES SO STUCK WITH CHANCE
POPS IN THIS PERIOD FOR NOW. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE
WE`LL SEE MORE UPPER RIDGING AND DRY AIR TAKING OVER. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG A COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT
SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOST OF THE EFFORT SPENT ON TRYING TO TIME THE
WINDS TODAY. THE DEEPER MIXING SHOULD KEEP A WESTERLY COMPONENT IN
THE WINDS...BUT EXPECT MORE NORTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNSET.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SSE AT 15G20KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JRB





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