Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 250553
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1253 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

A cold front that caused another round of heavy rainfall last
night along the Iowa border, had moved into central Wisconsin
this afternoon. Much drier air has filtered into the region behind
this front with dew points in the 40s and 50s in western
Minnesota.

Some high cloudiness (dense cirrus) has moved northward out of
the central Plains this afternoon and limited full sunshine for
the eastern half of the state. These clouds were associated with
thunderstorm blow-off across Kansas. However, other than high
cloudiness, southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin will remain
dry overnight.

A storm system along the Canadian border, north of North Dakota
this afternoon, will move slowly eastward along the border
overnight. This system will increase the boundary layer boundary
across central Minnesota late tonight and Thursday, but any
precipitation chances will remain across northern Minnesota.
Temperatures Thursday afternoon will be 5 to 10 degrees below
normal for late August.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

The long term concern remains timing of next upper level trough for
the weekend.

Initially...cooler and dry period in store as high pressure follows
front through Friday. Temperatures should range a few degrees below
normal with pleasant dewpoints.

Th next trough moves into the western Great Lakes Saturday and
Sunday and should bring another shot of rain and thunder to the
region. Appears warm front lifts northeast over the region later
Friday night with a weak surface low traversing the area Saturday
night toward the UP of Michigan. Will continue higher end likely
pops over the eastern areas for Saturday and we may have to include
parts of the far east into Saturday night as the frontal system
exits the area.  PW`s increase to around 1.80 inches over the east
during the period so any organized convection will likely generate
heavy rain once again.

Following this trough...flow becomes more zonal aloft. High pressure
moves across the region once again through at least Monday
night...perhaps into Tuesday before the approach of the next short
wave by midweek. Along with the increasing threat of showers
into next week...we expect a slow warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Fairly straight forward TAFs here with high pressure moving across
the Dakotas today that will settle over southern MN tonight. We
will see a BKN-OVC stratocu field work into central MN today.
There are indications with the HRRR/RAP that we could see MVFR
cigs down into AXN, but deeper moisture for MVFR cigs looks to
remain just north of MPX terminals, so maintained VFR TAFs. NAM
soundings for eastern MN and western WI show gust potential up to
25kts this afternoon, so did go a bit above LAMP guidance for wind
speeds. With high pressure moving in tonight, we will see skies
clear out and winds quickly diminish with the setting sun.

KMSP...Went with wind speeds a bit above LAMP guidance based on
forecast soundings from the NAM and RAP, but is a high confidence
forecast with VFR conditions prevailing.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...VFR. Wind SSW 5 kts.
Sat...MVFR psbl. TSRA likely. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
Sun...MVFR psbl early. SHRA early. Wind SW 5 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...MPG



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