Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 250856
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
356 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF THE LOW HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT...AND A DRY
SLOT IS ADVANCING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MN. THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS SRN MN THIS MORNING
AND AM EXPECTING BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER IN THOSE AREAS. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S WHILE DEW
POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 50S. THE WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM WILL PRODUCE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.
AFTER DEVELOPMENT ON/NEAR THE FRONT...THEY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
COLD SECTOR AND WEAKEN. FORCING WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE TRACK...WHICH IS WHERE POPS REMAIN HIGHEST. A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MN WHERE
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE TIME OF DAY THIS IS OCCURRING...NOT EXPECTING MUCH SEVERE
THREAT. THE LOW WILL BE TO THE EAST BY THE TIME PEAK DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS. THE LOW WILL SHIFT WELL EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH A
FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-94.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THE THREAT OF THUNDER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
ALONG WITH THE PERIODIC RAIN....TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES SOUTH
INTO THE REGION. FORCING IS WEAK...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA IN THE
MORNING. THE NEXT TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. WEDNESSDAY APPEARS TO
THE WETTEST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS IOWA. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY WORKS INTO FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MN...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY. THE QPF
FORECAST HAS OVER AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THIS REGION AS WELL. THERE
STILL IS A QUESTION HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN SHIELD WILL LIFT AS THE
LOW LIFTS OUT...AS RIDGING ALOFT REMAIN OVER A SMALL PART OF
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS WILL PROVIDE SOMEWHAT OF A BLOCKING PATTERN FOR OVERALL
EXPANSION OF THE RAIN. WE COULD SEE A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA WITH A RELATIVELY DRY EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED.


FINALLY...ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH THE MODELS PAINTING AN OVERALL SIMILAR SCENARIO. TEMPERATURESWILL
RESPOND TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO RANGE
COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

SURFACE LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SITES TO THE NORTH OF THAT
BOUNDARY ARE SOCKED IN WITH IFR OR EVEN LIFR CIGS AND IT WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY ALL NIGHT AND THROUGH AT LEAST PART OF MONDAY.
THIS INCLUDES AXN...STC...AND POSSIBLY RNH. MSP IS SITTING ON THE
EDGE OF VFR CIGS TO THE SOUTH...AND MVFR/IFR JUST TO THE NORTH.
WENT WITH VFR THROUGH 09Z WITH A TEMPO FOR LOWER CIGS...THEN
EXPECT THE LOW STRATUS TO SAG SOUTH AND TAKE OVER. RWF IS FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH THAT VFR IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT
MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE
LIKELY INITIALLY...BUT AS THE NIGHT GOES ON LOOK FOR A TRANSITION
TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A LACK OF THUNDER.

KMSP...WEAKENED STORMS APPROACHING NEXT HOUR TWO. THERE MAY NOT BE
ANY THUNDER AT ALL BY THE TIME THEY REACH MSP...BUT CONTINUED TO
MENTION VCTS. VFR COULD LAST LONGER THAN THE TAF INDICATES AS THE
EDGE OF THE LOW CIGS WILL MOVE LITTLE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS E 10-15KTS.
WED...MVFR LATE IN THE DAY. SHRA LIKELY. WIND E 15-25KTS.
THU...MVFR PSBL. CHANCE OF SHRA. WIND E 10-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...SPD


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