Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 120440
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1040 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1034 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

Updated to include 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

The upper level shortwave/vorticity max continues to lift quickly
through western WI, with a band of snow pivoting along the
westward flank. As of mid afternoon, the wave is beginning to
quickly lift out, and the band is beginning to weaken and the
western edge is now marching eastward. This precip band will
quickly lift out of the area over the next couple of hours.

The main concern then becomes the cold. Have issued a Wind Chill
Advisory for much of southern MN, but warmer temps and lesser
winds will allow the metro into western WI to remain warmer than
advisory criteria tonight. As the arctic air pours in behind
today`s system, skies should clear out overnight and temperatures
should fall below to the teens below zero across western and
central MN, to the single digits below zero elsewhere.

Friday will be dry and mostly sunny. With the arctic airmass in
place, highs will only reach the 0 to 5 above range. There will be
a wave passing through the Dakotas tomorrow, but high pressure
pushing in form the north will keep any snow to the west of our
area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

The main story in the long term is the cold.  Through at least
midweek, subzero lows are expected every night, and daytime highs
will be in the single digits except for a slightly warmer day on
Sunday.

Canadian high pressure will slowly slide through the region from
tomorrow night through Saturday. Clear and cold conditions are
expected during this time but winds should generally be light.

For Sunday, a quick moving upper wave will drop southeast through
Canada and likely bring light snow to the area, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures should warm into the
teens ahead of this precip thanks to southerly winds developing
ahead of the wave. Given the thermal profiles with this clipper,
snow ratios look to be around 20:1, so a light fluffy snow. There
won`t be strong winds with the falling snow, but northwest winds
will increase behind this wave which could lead to some blowing
and drifting.

Arctic high pressure will build back in for early next week so
expect more cold and dry weather for Monday and Tuesday.  A zonal
flow pattern looks to develop toward the middle of next week which
will lead to warmer temperatures to finish out the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1034 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

VFR conditions expected throughout this TAF set. Any lingering
high clouds will gradually diminish overnight through Friday
morning. NW winds will settle down to around 10 knots late tonight
through tomorrow.

KMSP...Other than wind chills dropping to around -25 degrees F
overnight through daybreak Friday morning, no significant weather
impacts expected.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts.
Sun...MVFR with -SN likely. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for WIZ014-023-024.

MN...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for MNZ041>045-
     047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC



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