Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 140938
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
338 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Quick moving clipper moving into northeast MN this afternoon is
still on track to drop south along the MN/WI border this evening,
with maybe 1.5" of snow coming down for Ladysmith down to Eau
Claire. Models have remained fairly consistent with the handling of
this wave and only change made to the existing forecast for this
snow was to delay its arrival by a couple of hours.

Beside the snow, there also looks to be a 3 or 4 hour period behind
this systems cold front where winds could get a bit strong,
especially for western into south central MN. CAA in the wake of the
front will result in steep lapse rates with a mixed layer getting up
to between 850 and 800 mb. NAM shows top of the channel winds
immediately behind the front getting into the mid 40 kts, so did
boost winds above blended guidance, with some 40+ mph wind gusts
not out of the question. Beside the winds, forecast soundings also
show any post frontal stratus being located directly within the
dendritic growth zone, so it shouldn`t be tough developing
flurries/light snow through the night.

Big question for Saturday is how quickly do we loose the low clouds.
Even if we do lose the clouds though, we will be placed squarely
within the temperature gradient between the cold trough to the east
and warm ridge to the west, so any way you slice it, our Saturday
will have more clouds than sun. Not much spread in guidance for
highs tomorrow, so stuck pretty close to a mean of blended guidance.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

An upper low over northwest Ontario will drive a stream of weak
shortwave energy across the area Friday into Saturday. The best
forcing looks to occur along and north of Interstate 94, where
30-40 POPs have been included.

On Saturday night and Sunday another wave follows on its heels,
as an inverted surface trough noses into central Wisconsin. Could
see some light snow over west central Wisconsin.

The first half of the upcoming week looks dry with mid level
ridging dominating locally. By the end of next week the western
shortwave trough looks to kick out and reach the area late in the
week. Large scale features and timing are still uncertain with
GFS/ECMWF models currently pointing toward higher snowfall
chances/amounts north/east of the area.

Overall high temperatures will run above normal, with the
exception of over west Central WI where more clouds and cyclonic
flow will keep temps slightly below normal. Meanwhile, low
temperatures will average 5 to 15 degrees above normal.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1041 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Backdoor cold front continues to slide SSW out of MN and WI, with
MVFR ceilings in close proximity to the front and some splotchy
VFR across central MN into western WI. Overall, will look for all
sites to go MVFR through the overnight period and much of
tomorrow with VFR ceilings likely to develop late tomorrow
afternoon. NW winds will remain in the 5-10kt range through
tomorrow.

KMSP...MVFR ceilings to prevail throughout tonight and tomorrow
with VFR ceilings likely to hold off until late tomorrow afternoon
or tomorrow evening. No precipitation expected and no visibility
restrictions expected.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...Chc MVFR. Wind WSW 5-10 kts.
Sat...Chc MVFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
Sun...Chc MVFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC



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