Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KMPX 262051

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
351 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Main concern in the near term is timing of drizzle/light rain exiting
the far eastern area this evening and extent of clearing into

Radar continues to show some light drizzle dropping to the southwest
associated with weak inverted surface trough. We expect to gradually
wane into early evening as the upper trough moves farther to the
east. Vestiges of the upper trough/weal forcing exiting to the east
with some deformation over northwest Wisconsin. We expect this to
collapse shortly after 00z...ending any significant rain threat.
Clouds should hold firm through the night with light winds under the
surface ridge moving across the area. Some short term HIRES models
were indicating the possibility of a few breaks developing over the
south and east during the night. If indeed that does occur...stratus
and some fog should quickly fill back in.  If we maintain the
uniform stratus deck...significant fog should not become a problem.

Slow clearing into Thursday as the high retreats and southerly flow
develops. Temperatures should remain in the 50s where clouds linger
longest...and perhaps a few lower 60s to the far southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

There are a few chances for rain between Thursday night and
Wednesday. The first is Saturday, but mainly across southern MN.
Sunday will be dry, but a stronger system is forecast to move across
the Upper Midwest on Monday. Additional chances for rain can`t be
ruled out for Wednesday, but confidence is low that far out into the

On Friday and upper level shortwave will ride a ridge and develop a
surface low over northern MN, with a trailing cold front forecast to
move through. In the warm sector expect southerly flow across the
rest of MN/WI, which will lead to warm and breezy conditions on
Friday. H850 temperatures are 15 to 20C across the region, but
timing difference introduce some uncertainty as to how warm
temperatures will climb. In addition mid level clouds could hold
back the heating potential as well. None-the-less Friday will be
warm and breezy, but as of now not anticipating record warmth.

On Saturday a shortwave trough will move across the region and lead
to an area of light rain near the I-90 corridor. This wave`s origins
can be traced back to Hurricane Seymour, but despite this there is
no threat for heavy rain or flooding. The reason being very little
moisture is able to cross the Mountains of the desert southwest, but
more importantly the aforementioned cold front that will pass
through on Friday will not allow for the true source of our
moisture, the Gulf of Mexico, to reach the Upper Midwest. Also, the
shortwave is entering a confluence zone, so it will get sheared out
and weaken, which is the exact opposite of what happened to the
system from Tuesday night which amplified and strengthened. The end
result for Saturday is around a 0.10 to 0.25 inches of light rain,
which pales in comparison to the 2-3 inches that fell last night.

Looking ahead, a powerful upper level trough will move across the
northern CONUS with a 980mb surface low forecast to develop over
southern Canada. This will bring another round of warm southerly
winds across the region on Monday ahead of a passing cold front.
There is also a chance for rain showers on Monday. For Monday
evening, depending on the timing of the front, Southerly winds will
become westerly in the evening, but temperatures should remain mild
before falling off later that night.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

High confidence in the continuation of IFR/MVFR ceilings through
the afternoon...into the evening. Not until winds shift to the
south do we expect ceilings to begin to lift. With light winds
under the surface ridge...ceilings may drop to LIFR with best
chance of that occurring into central MN. Some mvfr vsbys/br may
also occur but not until mainly after 06z. May see some light
rain/drizzle yet over eastern MN/west central WI into the evening
before the trough exits fully.

High confidence in lower end MVFR ceilings through the night.
Expect cigs to return to vfr after 14z-15z Thu. Patchy drizzle
possible early in the period then becoming dry.

Thu night...VFR. Wind S 5 kt.
Fri...VFR. Wind SSW 10-15 kt becoming West.
Sat...VFR with MVFR/Showers possible. Wind N at 5-10 kt.


.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


AVIATION...DWE is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.