000
FXUS63 KMPX 260517
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1117 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE AFTERNOON TURNED OUT PRETTY NICE WEATHER-WISE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST CENTRAL WI...THE TWIN CITIES AS WELL AS FROM HUTCHINSON ON
NORTH THROUGH LITTLE FALLS. A DRY NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO
THESE AREAS HAS LOWERED DEW POINTS INTO THE TEENS. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
TURNING AROUND AND RISING DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE TURN
AROUND IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING IN. MODEL
TRENDS TODAY HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING SNOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MN LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN SPREADING SOUTHEAST
INTO FAR EASTERN AREAS OF MN AND ALL OF WESTERN WI DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR A TIME IN WESTERN WI
MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN OUR FAR EASTERN WI COUNTIES BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY (RICE LAKE TO EAU CLAIRE ON EAST). FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS
DWINDLE TO A HALF INCH OR LESS IN EASTERN MN.

COMPLICATING MATTERS TONIGHT IS A WARM LAYER ALOFT SPREADING INTO
WESTERN MN THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF ICE ALOFT TOWARDS
DAYBREAK ACROSS EASTERN MN AND THEN EVENTUALLY ACROSS ADJOINING
AREAS OF WESTERN WI MONDAY MORNING. VARIOUS WRFS TODAY HAVE
BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE LOOKING WITH THE SIMULATED RADAR
REFLECTIVITY IN WESTERN MN WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
INDICATED WITH THE PTYPE. THEREFORE...EXPANDED LOW CHANCE POPS
FARTHER WEST TO THE SD BORDER AND SOUTH TO IA TO HANDLE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. COVERAGE IS SPOTTY AND THE
DURATION AT THIS POINT IS A COUPLE OF HOURS. NAM BUFKIT PROFILE
DATA SHOW MORE OF A LOW LEVEL SATURATION (SFC-800MB) AND STRONGLY
VEERING WIND PROFILE ACROSS EASTERN MN AND FAR WESTERN WI EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...SWITCHED PTYPE TO A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY
LOW CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

ITS NOW LOOKING LIKE MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT BE FAR BEHIND.
USED PRETTY MUCH BC RAW BLEND FOR GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTED IN
HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 40S IN SW MN...THE UPPER 30S FROM KSTC
THROUGH KMSP WITH MIDDLE 30S AT KEAU.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

PICKING UP THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT...WE`LL BE DEALING WITH PUSHING
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP OFF TO THE EAST OF THE WESTERN WI.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL ALREADY BE DRY BY THIS TIME.  MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE WE COULD LOSE MID LEVEL SATURATION...A RECIPE FOR
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.  SO THAT REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

HEADING INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVERHEAD WILL DRIFT
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA AS THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE PUSHES EASTWARD.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH
WARMING WILL OCCUR WITH THE RIDGE THROUGH MIDWEEK. TUESDAY WILL BE A
QUIET WEATHER DAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STILL BE UPSTREAM DURING THE DAY...SO WE WON`T
SEE MUCH WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LACK OF SNOW COVER...SUNSHINE...AND
MODEST LOW LEVEL TEMPS.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION INDICATED...THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE ADVECTION WAS DIALED BACK IN THE MODEL RUNS LAST NIGHT...AND
THIS HELD CONSISTENT TODAY. SO...LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED FOR THE
HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CLOUD COVER WERE
QUICKLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL HINDER
ADDITIONAL WARMING DUE TO SOLAR RADIATION.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.  THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA AT THIS TIME...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TOWARD
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.  SO...STUCK WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. ONCE THIS FEATURE SLIDES BY...COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL ENSURE...BUT WON`T BE OVERLY STRONG AS THE TRUE
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

INDICATIONS REMAIN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FURTHER FOR NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE POLAR JET BUCKLES AND ARCTIC AIR ADVANCES SOUTH.  THE
FORECAST ISSUE THOUGH IS WHERE DOES THE CORE OF THE COLD LINE UP.
THE GFS HAS SHIFTED THE CORE OF THE COLD JUST EAST OF OUR
AREA...WHICH WOULD BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW.  THE EC HOWEVER
INDICATES A COLDER SOLUTION FOR OUR AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE FINE
TUNED OVER THE COMING DAYS.  REGARDLESS...WE CAN EXPECT AN OVERALL
COOLING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LOOK FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE ACROSS MANY OF THE TAF SITES
EARLY IN THE MORNING. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN COULD MIX IN
WITH THE SNOW AT TIMES...BUT DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN JUST WHEN AND
WHERE THAT WILL HAPPEN. WE`LL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL IT GETS CLOSER TO
THE RADAR AND SOME OF THE LOCAL AIRPORTS START GIVING US A FEEL OF
THE WEATHER TYPE. MVFR CEILINGS LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

KMSP...
WE REMOVED THE FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE TAF...ONLY BECAUSE WE
THINK THAT SNOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE PRECIPIATION TYPE. DRIZZLE
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT IF IT DOES OCCUR WE THINK IT
WILL BE QUITE BRIEF. IN THESE CASES...WE HAVE A HARD TIME KNOWING
SPECIFICALLY WHERE/WHEN THE PRECIP TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM SNOW TO
DRIZZLE. IT CAN ALSO SWITCH BACK AND FORTH. THE ~2000FT CEILINGS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MAKE IT TO THE AIRPORT...BUT THEY WILL
EVENTUALLY ARRIVE EARLY THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
OBSCURING OUR VIEW OF THE LOW CLOUDS...SO IT`S TOUGH TO GET A
FEEL FOR HOW THE MVFR CEILINGS ARE EVOLVING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND LIGHT/VARIABLE.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR. WIND SE 10 KT.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR WIZ015-
     016-025>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...CLF