000
FXUS63 KMPX 110001
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
701 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

THIS AFTN TEMPS ARE A SIGN THAT SPRING IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER. IT
WOULD HAVE BEEN A LOT WARMER IF THE SNOW PACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MN WAS
NOT AS DEEP AS IN PREVIOUS YEARS.

THE MAIN CHG IN THE SHORT TERM IS TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN NORTH OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY...UP TO THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF THE
TWIN CITIES. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWARD WITH THE
QPF AMTS SINCE YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH A BROAD AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN MT/WESTERN ND...IT
SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE STATE WILL SEE SOME FORM
OF PRECIPITATION BY TUESDAY MORNING. MAX WET BULB TEMPS IN THE
LOWEST 1KM REMAINS WARM ENOUGH FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL 9-12Z TUESDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN. THE MAIN REASON FOR THE
INCREASE IN PERCENTAGES OF RAIN/SNOW BY MORNING IS THE 25H JET
ENTRANCE REGION IS MUCH MORE VIGOROUS BY LATE TONIGHT WHICH
TRANSLATES TO BETTER FORCING AT MID LEVELS. EVEN SOME OF THE SHORT
TERM MODELS AND ASSOCIATED FORECAST REFLECTIVITY RETURNS HAVE BEEN
LESS ENHANCED PRIOR TO TODAY/S RUN WHICH IS MUCH MORE ROBUST. ONLY
THE INITIAL DRY N/NE FLOW MAY INHIBIT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION TO
REACH THE GROUND UNTIL 9-12Z. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHEN
THE PRECIPITATION FINALLY REACHES THE GROUND BASED ON WEB-CAMS AND
SFC OBS...AND SEE IF THE DRIER AIR IS STRONGER OR WEAKER. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO HIGHER QPF/SNOWFALL AMTS ONCE THE CHGS OVER TO SNOW
OCCURS TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN WHEN THE PRECIPITATION CHGS OVER TO
SNOW...SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN AOB FREEZING LEADING TO LITTLE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

LONGER TERM ISSUES REMAIN TEMPERATURES TRENDS AND SMALL THREAT OF
SNOW OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
INTO THE WEEKEND.

COOLER START IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SYSTEM WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AND CAA ADVECTION. RESIDUAL SURFACE TOUGH EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE EASTERN CWA INTO THEE AFTERNOON...HOLDING CLOUDS LONGEST
HERE. THIS IS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS AND 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME SATURATION POTENTIAL OVER THE
EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD A SMALL CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD POTENTIAL WARM UP BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY...AND MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH. THE LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE/NOHRSC MODELS SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW TEMPERATURES SHOW GOOD
RIPENING OF THE SNOW PACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. GOOD COMPACTION OF THE
SNOW PACK OCCURRING TO THE CENTRAL AND EAST. WE WILL SHUT DOWN
THE MELT WEDNESDAY...WITH A BRIEF WARM UP AGAIN INTO THURSDAY...AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT APPEARS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURN FOR THAT TIME.

LONGER TERM MODELS REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE NEXT WESTERN TROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECWMF IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE HUDSON BAY LOW AND DRIVES THE PACIFIC TROUGH
EAST. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW INTO SUNDAY OVER THE
WEST. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MODELS AS TO DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF
THE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

A VIGOROUS AND QUICK MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN
INTO WEST CENTRAL MN TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AND INTO EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST
CENTRAL WI DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF KAXN AND KSTC WITH ONLY PROB GROUPS USED.
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES WILL START WITH RAIN THEN
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND THEN TO SNOW DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THE TAF SITE THAT HAS
THE GREATEST IMPACT FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION TUESDAY MORNING IS KRWF
WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. CURRENT TRENDS WOULD
HAVE AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW FOR KMSP...KRNH AND KEAU. MUCH OF
THE SNOW WILL BE OVER BY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING NW WINDS
OF 12-15 KNOTS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED DURING
THE SNOW WITH VSBYS MVFR OR LESS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THE
MVFR CEILINGS LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING A
POSSIBILITY.

KMSP...LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED AROUND 09Z WITH A TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW BY 13Z. LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY WITH
ACCUMULATION AN INCH OR LESS. CEILINGS BECOMING MVFR AROUND 12Z
AND PERSISTING THEREAFTER. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THE
MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDINESS
POSSIBLE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. N WIND 8 KTS BCMG W.
THU...VFR. SW WIND 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. W 10-15 KNOTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH