Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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763
FXUS63 KMPX 242352
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
652 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Typical March weather underway here with all the summer
temperatures to the southeast. Stratus and northerly flow have
kept temps only in the 30s and 40s, but Chicago managed to reach
the low 80s south of the front. Drier air will work into western
MN this evening and clouds should clear nicely, which is already
evident on satellite. The precip band has weakened and shifted
southeast but the upper low across the southern Plains will eject
northeastward to the Mid Mississippi Valley Saturday/Saturday
night which will bring the clouds and precip band back
northwestward. Amounts will be light and the precip should be
confined to southeast of a Fairmont to Eau Claire line through the
day.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The weather pattern that we are currently in is difficult to
predict. That is the bottom line, so thought it best to temper
expectations and acknowledge that there will be little change in
the forecast and not anticipating any drastic uptick in confidence
until this highly amplified, split-flow pattern changes. The
reason being, amplified waves eventually end up breaking and
getting cut off from the main flow. Predicting a cut-off waves
movement is difficult, especially when there are multiple waves
that interact with each other.

Within these upper level lows are areas of enhanced vorticity which
end up producing precipitation. For example, on Saturday night
models indicate a band of light rain lifting northward, but the
positive vorticity advection is weak, the precip is light, and the
confidence in receiving measurable rainfall is low, so only have a
25 to 35 percent chance of rain through Sunday. On Monday a northern
stream wave will move through and subsidence on the back side will
bring an end to the precipitation chances, but forecast soundings
show residual boundary layer moisture, so should see increasing
clouds driven by daytime heating.

Tuesday will end up being the sunniest day of the forecast with
highs in the lower 50s expected. On Wednesday another occluded
cyclone over the southern plains will spread mid level moisture and
clouds over the Upper Midwest. Confidence tapers off considerably
after Wednesday, so continued with the blended guidance and slight
chances for precipitation. One thing is highly likely, and that
is the month of March will once again be above normal at MSP and
STC, possibly at EAU as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

We are now stuck in a situation with ample low level moisture
being trapped beneath a strengthening inversion. Though rain is
south and east of the area, it will start drifting back northwest
toward us tomorrow, which will help reinforce the low level
moisture and clouds. Given this pattern, hard to get too excited
about any clearing. We have seen some clearing out west, though
not yet at AXN, though with sites to their north, west, and south
all VFR, so think AXN should go VFR quickly, but easterly
component to low level winds will help advect stratus to the east
back west overnight. Light rain should start moving into SE MN
after 18z, with scattered showers getting back into MSP/EAU late
tomorrow afternoon into the evening.

KMSP...Doesn`t look like the stratus we have now goes anywhere
until Sunday night at the earliest. Expect showers in the area
after 00z Sun, but will be light and diminishing, so only went
with a vcsh to end the taf.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...MVFR. Chc -ra. Wind NNE 5 kts.
Mon...Chc MVFR Early. Wind N 5 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind NE 5 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...MPG



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