Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 280016
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
616 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS TIMING OF SNOW AND THE ATTENDANT HEADLINE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA.

MODELS TREND A BURST OF WAA SNOW ACROSS THE CWA DEVELOPING OVER
WEST AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...AND SPREADING INTO WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES STOP THEIR DECLINE...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE RAPID TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.

BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES INTO EASTERN MN BY 06Z AND THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN.  SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 3
INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART ALONG AND NORTH OF I94 AND
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 8 IN WISCONSIN. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY END
OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...PERHAPS
LINGERING A BIT INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADDED
ANOTHER COUNTY EAST/RUSK COUNTY/IN WISCONSIN FOR NOW...BEGINNING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD. THERE MAY
BE A BOUT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAA WING OF
SNOW AND ELEVATED WARM LAYER MOVES THROUGH. CONTINUED TO MENTION
THAT POSSIBILITY AS WELL.  MODELS ALSO GENERATED A SMALL CHANCE OF
SLEET...WHICH COULD BE POSSIBLE IF THE WATER DROPLETS REFREEZE IN
THE COOLER AIR NEAR THE GROUND. AGAIN...THIS WOULD OCCUR ON THE WEST
END OF THE SNOW AREA...AS IT MOVES EAST INTO WISCONSIN FRIDAY
MORNING.

FRIDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR THE MOST
PART...PERHAPS SOME READINGS AROUND 30 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE STRONGEST WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT
WILL BE NORTH OF THE FA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOME WEAK WAA ALOFT STILL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER 900-700H DRYING WILL INHIBIT ANY
VERY LIGHT PRECIP THAT MAY TRY TO REACH THE GROUND.  CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE...SATURATED SOUNDINGS WITH INCREASING DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
STILL INTRODUCE THE CONCERN FOR FOG...AT LEAST IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. 850H TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO +8 TO
+12C BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY MORNING.  DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MOVING OVER THE SNOWPACK SHOULD PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRATUS DECK ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
LOCATIONS...WHICH COULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY.  THE GFS AND NAM
ALSO DEVELOP SOME SPOTTY, VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF OUR
REGION DURING THIS TIME...BUT THE ECMWF HAS NOTHING. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION...WILL NOT INTRODUCE PRECIP INTO
THE GRIDS.  CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS WARMING...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD DECK AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT SOME
SOUTHERN AREAS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOW FROM WEDNESDAY`S
STORM.  A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS ONCE AGAIN UNLIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH SOME GUSTY NW WINDS POSSIBLE IN WESTERN MN.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THE SEE-SAW OF TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES
FROM THE OVERNIGHT FROPA MENTIONED ABOVE. TEMPERATURES WILL HARDLY
RECOVER SUNDAY AND BE A SOLID 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY AT
LEAST. GOOD AGREEMENT ON A VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD START TO THE WORK
WEEK.  SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY TO THE LOWER
TEENS ACROSS THE REGION. THAT TYPE OF COLD WONT LAST LONG THOUGH AS
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH DELIVER SOME
MODIFICATION TO THE REGION TUESDAY.

THE GFS HAS BEEN ADVERTISING A LARGE CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  IT HAS BEEN SPORADIC WITH
ITS OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AND THE ECMWF INDICATES DRY
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST AT THE SAME TIME.  SO CONFIDENCE IS SO
LOW IN ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURRING FOR OUR AREA...DECIDED TO KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL AT LEAST SOME AGREEMENT OR CONSISTENCY IS
SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

SNOW WILL SPREAD SE FROM ND EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND
IFR VSBYS MOVING DOWN THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL AFFECT ALL OF
THE TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KRWF. THE TIMING WITH THE
ONSET OF SNOW LOOKED ON TRACK WITH THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS AND FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE. THE CONCERN IS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE BAND OF SNOW. WE LOSE ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT WITH
JUST LOW CEILINGS OVER THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE WIND
PROFILE FOR A FEW THOUSAND FEET IN THE VERTICAL COULD YIELD SOME
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST TO CONTINUE THE
MENTION AT KMSP AND MAY INTRODUCE -FZDZ AT KSTC AND KRNH WITH THE
06Z ISSUANCE. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND LOW CEILINGS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THE FRONT NEVER REALLY
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...SO CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON TRYING TO IMPROVE CEILINGS THIS TAF PERIOD. SE WINDS 6-12
KNOTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

KMSP...BAND OF SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE AIRFIELD BETWEEN 06Z-12Z
WITH UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. A THREAT FOR -FZDZ FRIDAY
MORNING AS INDICATED IN THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
IMPROVING CEILINGS TO ABOVE 020 THIS TAF CYCLE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR CIGS. WINDS S AT 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW AT 15G20 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW AT 5-10KTS...BECOMING S LATE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CST
     FRIDAY FOR MNZ042>045-050-052-053.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CST
     FRIDAY FOR WIZ014-015.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM CST FRIDAY
     FOR WIZ016.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...RAH







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