Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 190445

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1045 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Issued at 1040 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Updated to include 06z aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Little concern in the short term. Some high clouds streaming in
over the ridge over the over the Dakotas. This will continue
through tonight into Friday. That along with the southerly wind
will help hold temepratures up some. After some mid 40s to the
west today, we should be able to warm through the 40s again over
the south and west. Only limiting factor will be the opaqueness
of the mid/high clouds expected into the day.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

The main long term concern remains the snow storm potential
developing Sunday and continuing into Monday.

The GFS and Canadian models remain the farthest north with the
potential heavy snow band. The trend in the models has been to
slow the movement of the system and lift the snow band a little
farther to the north. The GFS is currently favoring a Montevideo,
Little Falls line with the potential 6 inch plus line as far
south as New Ulm, the northern metro into northwest WI along
Highway 8. This is about 60-70 miles farther north than
yesterdays run. The 12z GEFS probability plots are similar with
this depiction. The ECMWF is farther south with the heavy snow
band, along a KRWF- KMSP-KRCX line. With the system still off the
western coast, we continue to expect some fluctuation in the
overall snow band until it comes ashore Friday evening.

Leading up to the system, we will likely see stratus and some fog
develop later Saturday night into Sunday morning as low level
moisture increases. The models continue to trend at least a chance
of snow developing later Saturday night across central MN as lift
develops over into the area. By Sunday afternoon, we should see
snow over the northwest cwa with a possible rain/snow/sleet mix
developing into southeast MN. The GFS being farther north lifts
warmer air into the southeast, resulting in the possible mix. The
ECMWF is farther south and colder for most of the area, and all
but the far southeast would be snow. Hopefully the deterministic
models will come into better agreement as the system moves ashore
over the west.

Following the storm we should trend colder and dry, but only
slightly below normal through the end of the work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1040 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

VFR conditions will prevail throughout this TAF set. Upper level
ceilings will gradually lower to the mid-levels through the next
24-30 hours but otherwise no concerns. Winds will steadily swing
from S to WNW over this TAF period with speeds mainly in the 7-12
kt range.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

Sat...VFR. Wind light and variable.
Sun...VFR early, IFR or lower with SN or wintry mix likely Sunday
afternoon and night. Wind NE 5-15 kts.
Mon...IFR or lower most of the day with SN/BLSN. Wind N 15-25 kts
gusting to 35 kts.




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