000
FXUS63 KMPX 270859
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
359 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW NOTED ROTATING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING.

07Z RADAR IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW ARE ALREADY BLOSSOMING ACROSS NORTHERN MN. THE LOW CENTER
IS FORECAST TO DROP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI TO
SOUTHERN WI THIS MORNING. THEREFORE EXPECTED TO SEE SCATTERED COLD
POOL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MN ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI WHERE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE IS THE
HIGHEST...WITH SPOTTIER ACTIVITY TO THE WEST. SCATTERED ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY LINGER THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN AS A
TRAILING LOBE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRIFTS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75 DEGREES. A BRISK
NORTHWEST WIND WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MAKING IT FEEL LIKE A COOL
LATE-JULY DAY...AS SUSTAINED SPEEDS REACH 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KTS.

TONIGHT BRINGS CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS. COULD SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY FROM
EASTERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE THEME OF THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS SEASONABLE AND
SUNNY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO A NEARLY STATIONARY
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. A
STRIP OF H500 POSITIVE VORTICITY OWING TO THE SPEED CHANGE WILL
SET UP OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE A SECOND AREA OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY WILL RESIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION OWING
TO THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE PARKED OVER JAMES BAY CANADA. THIS
LEAVES MN/WI IN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR DRY WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRAY LITTLE FROM THE LOWER 80S
EACH DAY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR A ROGUE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO TRAVERSE THE REGION AND BE THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT APPEARS
THURSDAY WHEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT THAT SCENARIO.
THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP...BUT
FEEL THIS IS A VERY WEAK SIGNAL/LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE ZERO PRECIP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI AND SE
MN. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KEAU WITH A THUNDERSTORM HAVING MOVED
THROUGH IN THE PAST HOUR. DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS
ON SUNDAY...A COMPACT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS INTO CENTRAL MN
AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI (KAXN-KSTC-KRNH). KEPT
KRWF-KMSP AND KEAU JUST ABOVE VFR MINIMUMS. ACCOMPANYING THE LOW
ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
VSBYS TO STAY VFR IN THE SHOWERS AS THEY WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 14-18 KNOTS. DIMINISHING WIND AND CLOUDS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

KMSP...BKN-OVC035-045 IMPACTING THE AIRFIELD ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH
SOME SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AIRFIELD. WNW
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING NW 15-18 KNOTS
SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR. WINDS N 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH