191
FXUS63 KMPX 101723
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Clusters of showers and thunderstorms possible through Friday.
  Predictability for any of these rounds is low, but heavy rain
  and gusty winds are possible with said clusters.

- Warm and mainly dry Saturday-Monday, then the next system to
  bring organized showers and storms arrives Tuesday-Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

A decaying line of thunderstorms has reached western Minnesota
early this morning. Earlier gusts of 45 mph at Madison and Canby
with the gust front have since become much lighter. Showers and
a few thunderstorms continue to bubble up along and behind the
gust front within an axis of deep low level moisture. This axis
will continue eastward through the morning which should keep
the threat for these going for at least a few more hours. An
extensive cirrus canopy shrouding the eastern Dakotas and
Minnesota should eventually scatter, although some CAMs do have
shower activity lingering into mid to late morning. Should
skies clear, daytime heating coupled with dew points increasing
into the upper 60s to low 70s beneath fairly steep mid level
lapse rates, especially across western Minnesota, will allow
instability to build fairly substantially this afternoon with
little capping. Weak disturbances could spark isolated to
scattered thunderstorms at any point. Outflows from those storms
could spark additional storms and eventually they may congeal
into clusters with time. Wind shear is rather weak which will
leave this activity disorganized, but some gusty winds and heavy
rain are possible into tonight. A cold front will approach
from the northwest Friday. A similar scenario is expected to
unfold with the development of clusters of storms through the
day and into Friday night.

High pressure will move in Saturday and make for a pleasant
weekend ahead with near normal temperatures, lower humidity and
sunny skies. The next weathermaker to watch is a positively-
tilted trough over the northern Rockies early week that will
work east to the northern Plains and Upper Midwest in the
Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe. A surface front will nearly stall
for a time from the central Plains to northern Great Lakes while
a mid level disturbance rides northeast along it. Showers and
thunderstorms developing within this corridor could bring heavy
rainfall amidst pwats possibly north of 2 inches.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Lingering light rain showers stretching from south-central MN to
southeastern MN/western WI will continue to slowly move east and
decay through this afternoon. Though, isolated thunderstorms may
develop near EAU this afternoon as heating uncaps the
environment ahead of a weak low circulation. Have kept the
PROB30 for -TSRA at EAU from 20-23Z today. Otherwise, have kept
prevailing conditions mostly VFR through Friday morning. Though,
EAU may be an issue again during the morning hours as increased
low-level moisture causes cigs to drop to at least MVFR. There
is a chance of another area of rain Friday morning also (similar
to this morning) but thinking rain chances should be confined
to southern MN. Thus, have included PROB30s for
-SHRA at RWF, MKT, and MSP. South-southeasterly winds will
 lessen and turn more easterly tonight. Winds begin to turn more
 westerly across western MN towards the end of the TAF period
 as the cold front nears.

KMSP...Some light showers will linger near MSP this afternoon
but no impacts are expected. Thinking Friday morning could be
similar to this morning, so have added a PROB30 for -SHRA. Added
another PROB30 later Friday afternoon for thunderstorm chances
with the arrival of the cold front.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Chc AM MVFR/SHRA. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind S 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...CTG