000
FXUS63 KMPX 170950
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
414 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THE TAIL OF THE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW WILL SINK ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST TODAY...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT BACKS
INTO WESTERN WI AND EASTERN MN. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT BY MID MORNING AS CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
WORK IN UNISON WITH DIURNAL HEATING. BY 17Z...MID LEVEL SATURATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT IS ILLUSTRATED BY PROGGED
700-600MB OMEGA AND A TONGUE OF MUCAPES FROM 1000-2000 ALIGNED
ALONG/NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. SHOULD SEE COVERAGE OF
STORMS DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...ALTHOUGH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z
TUESDAY WILL RENEW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE GIVEN A DECENT HEAD START...CONSIDERING
THE MILD LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S AND 60S. A 20-25 DEGREE DIURNAL SHOULD
BE FAIRLY EASY TO ACCOMPLISH...EVEN GIVING THE INCREASING CU DECK.
ANTICIPATE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S TO BE COMMON...WITH MID 80S ALONG
THE IA BORDER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...WITH MID 40S
TO MID 50S ANTICIPATED.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO PRESENCE OF
50H SHORT WAVE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT EASTERN HALF OF FA. NEW WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL PROGGED TO ENTER SOUTHWESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY
BECOMING CATALYST FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. VERY WEAK
SIGNATURE NOTED ON GFS40 305K ISENTROPIC ANALY...SO CHANCE POPS
SEEMED REASONABLE AT THIS JUNCTURE. VERY SLOW PROGRESSION OF NEW
INTERMOUNTAIN STORM SYSTEM EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS BY THURSDAY
MORNING WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHTLY INCREASING THREAT OF CONVECTION
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  ALTHOUGH
BOTH GFS40 AND EUROPEAN MAINTAIN 50H CUT OFF LOW OVER PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY
...DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH PLACEMENT OF SFC CYCLONE BETWEEN
THE TWO. GFS40 HAS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND SOMEWHAT FATHER SOUTH
SOLUTION BY FRIDAY...AS COMPARED TO THE EUROPEAN. AT THIS JUNCTURE
IT APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MN LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO ENCOUNTER SEVERAL OF THE SEVERE
CATEGORY OVER PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN...WHERE BEST THETA E
ADVECTION AND NOSE OF 85KT JET CORE ARE LINING UP ATTM. DUE TO
PLACEMENT OF MOST THUNDERSTORMS OVER REGION NOTED ABOVE...
DECIDED TO BUMP UP HIGHS ON SATURDAY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS
ENTIRE FA. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES PAN OUT WE COULD EASILY ENCOUNTER
LARGE SWATH OF TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S SATURDAY AFTN...AS 1000-500MB
THICKNESS VALUES INCREASE INTO THE 579-582DAM RANGE. OF COURSE
PRESENCE OF ANY LONG LIVED CONVECTION PRECLUDED RAISING TEMPS INTO THIS
RANGE FOR NOW. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR LIKELY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PIVOTS SE FROM NE MN INTO NE NEBRASKA. POSSIBILITY FOR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL OVER SOUTHERN MN/WEST CENTRAL WI SUNDAY AFTN
INTO EARLY NEXT TUESDAY...ENHANCING THREAT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS TIME PERIOD. COOL FRONT WILL FINALLY SLIDE SOUTH INTO
IOWA BY LATE TUESDAY AFTN. COOLER AIR FUNNELING IN BEHIND LARGE 50H
VORTEX OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL RETURN HIGH TEMPS BACK TO MID 70S
TO NEAR 80 RANGE NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING CU LATE MONDAY
MORNING AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN MN AND
WRN WI BY AFTERNOON. MOST COVERAGE WILL BE NORTH OF I-94 AND EAST
OF I-35. MAINTAINED VCSH FOR THE TAF SITES BESIDE AXN AND RWF.
COULD HAVE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE MONDAY EVENING.

KMSP...VFR UNTIL AT LEAST LATE MONDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BRING MVFR CONDS. WINDS WILL
VEER NORTH BEHIND A FRONT MONDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. ESE WINDS 5 KTS.
WED...VFR. S WINDS 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. SSE WINDS 10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...BORGHOFF