Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000
FXUS62 KGSP 251944
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
244 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler high pressure will build into the region from the west
through Sunday. Warmer air should return during the first half of
next week. A warm front lifts north through the area around midweek
as a cold front approaches from the west bringing showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM: Low pressure now over Ontario/Quebec continues to
drive a cold front across the Eastern Seaboard. Winds have shifted
to NW across the mountains and foothills, and begun such a shift
over the upper Piedmont. A few gusts upwards of 35 mph have occurred
in isolated locations near the wind shift line. Expect frequent
gusts of 20-25 kt in all areas until late afternoon. Convective
coverage ahead of the front has peaked within our CWFA, and while
a few congested cu remain in the I-77 corridor, it appears safe to
remove all PoP from the near term forecast. There no longer appears
to be enough moisture to expect upslope showers in the mountains.

Once the wind gusts diminish, clear and much cooler weather will
return to the area tonight as high pressure builds in from the
west. Min temps actually are expected to dip about a category below
normal in the Piedmont, and perhaps two in the mountains. This
will be followed by near-normal maxes Sunday.

The only impactful weather remaining in the period is the
elevated fire danger associated with low afternoon RH and
ever-drier fuels. This is particularly concerning today given
the brisk winds. We will maintain a Fire Danger Statement thru
600 PM. However, for Sunday, winds will be much lighter; we will
simply highlight low RH in the Fire Weather Forecast product,
and the evening or midnight shifts may re-evaluate.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM EST Saturday: General west/southwest flow aloft will
dominate the short term, with embedded shortwaves pushing through the
area. We begin the period with surface high pressure off the NC
coast, with southerly flow around the western periphery of that
surface high, slowly bringing another warm and moist airmass to the
region. Monday should see morning lows and afternoon highs fairly
close to seasonal averages, maybe a degree or two above, before the
low-level WAA really kicks in Monday night into Tuesday.

The first shortwave will bring increasing precipitation chances
during the day on Monday as isentropic upglide increases across the
Deep South and Southeast, and if the moisture arrives early enough,
there might possibly be enough cold air-moisture overlap for some
light snow in extreme western zones, but generally seems unlikely.
The low-level shortwave splits Monday afternoon, with the northern
wave damping. Precipitation falls apart over the Southern
Appalachians Monday night as moisture flow is temporarily cutoff by
an enhancement in precip along the SC coast with the southern
shortwave (this can also be seen in vorticity fields as the southern
vort stream intensifies as the northern one weakens Monday evening).
Another weak shortwave/vortmax gets lifted over the region Tuesday
morning ahead of a stronger upper level jet (to impact us at the
beginning of the extended). The upglide pattern looks messy with
lack of synoptic lift, but as usual generally favors the upslope
areas of the SW NC mountains. Overall not much to write home about
for QPF, but WAA increases Tuesday night ahead of the next system,
with overnight lows closer to seasonal highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Saturday: During the short term, a longwave trough
will be pushing through the Rockies and into the Plains, to affect
our area at the start of the extended. Primary surface low over the
Great Lakes at the start of the period will connect to a secondary
surface low lifting from the OK/TX Panhandles toward the Mid-
Mississippi Valley at the start of the period, with the cold front
approaching the Appalachians Wednesday evening. Thankfully guidance
is in much better agreement today, with the GFS much slower and
lined up with the ECMWF and both depicting the frontal passage after
00z Thursday. This helps reduce severe potential as instability will
be limited, and what little may be leftover across the area
Wednesday night will be a little farther removed from the strong
deep-layer shear. Still, the best chance for thunderstorms across
the area will be with the frontal passage as mechanical lift adds
its oomph to the convective instability lingering from the
unseasonably warm temperatures on Wednesday (though frankly it`s the
seasonal temperatures that are starting to feel abnormal). Still
cannot completely rule out a strong to isolated severe storm (more
of a HSLC situation with <500J/kg sbCAPE with 50-70kt deep layer
shear, though the environment becomes decreasingly favorable after
00z Thursday).

Will see another battle of invading cold air across the mountains
pitted against retreating moisture, though with the help of some
weak moisture attendant with the upper trough axis behind the
surface front, and with this some light snow showers will be
possible early Thursday across the mountains before the moisture
completely dries up. Snowfall totals for now are less than an inch
but will continue to refine with later forecasts. The end of the
period will sport near-to-just-slightly-above average temperatures
as mean upper trough remains over the area. A shortwave rounding the
base of the trough may bring a clipper to the northern mountains
Thursday night; GFS is farther south with this feature than the
ECMWF. Have included very very light pops in the northern mountains
just to hint at this possibility, with cool Canadian high pressure
building into the area late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT:  Cold fropa expected within the first couple hours of
the TAF period. Isolated to scattered SHRA will accompany the
front thru the Piedmont, but the chance of restrictions or direct
impacts is small enough to only mention as VCSH. If a shower does
pass overhead some pea size hail may also occur at the field. WSHFT
to NW expected by 21z with gusts picking up and persisting until
sunset. SKC tonight with winds gradually tapering off.

Elsewhere:  The cold front has pushed through all sites leaving
only brisk NW gusts as the impact weather for the aftn/evening;
the influx of much drier air will result in VFR lasting thru Sunday,
with the few clouds that persist being associated with upslope over
the NC mountains. Winds will take their time to really diminish
but should be of little consequence by daybreak.

Outlook: A dry continental airmass will maintain VFR thru Sunday. A
shortwave exits the lower Mississippi Valley on Monday, once again
increasing chances for precipitation/restrictions which may last
into Tuesday. Somewhat unsettled weather will last until the passage
of a cold front associated with another Midwest low late Wednesday.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Gusty W to NW winds continue over the area in the wake of a cold
front this afternoon, as a much drier airmass builds into the
area. Minimum RH of 15 to 20 percent is expected across much of the
SC Upstate and Northeast GA, and 20 to 25 across western NC. Red
Flag conditions will be met sporadically in SC/GA through late
afternoon, until wind gusts taper off after sunset. Thus a fire
danger statement has been issued for all of northeast GA minus
Rabun County, as well as all of Upstate SC, valid through 6PM.

The area of high pressure will sit atop the region Sunday, and
though temperatures will be notably cooler (not breaking out
of the 50s in most areas), RH values will still dip to near 20
percent during the afternoon. However winds are not expected to
be much of a factor. A fire danger statement still may be issued
overnight in coordination with other agencies.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Fire Danger Statement until 6 PM EST this evening for GAZ017-
     018-026-028-029.
NC...None.
SC...Fire Danger Statement until 6 PM EST this evening for
     SCZ001>014-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...Wimberley
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...Wimberley
FIRE WEATHER...Wimberley


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