Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000
FXUS62 KGSP 011736
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
136 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM...UPDATED THE FCST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. ALSO UPDATED THE
DEWPTS/RH FOR THIS AFTN. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS THIS MAY STILL NOT
BE LOW ENUF...AS DEWPTS MIX OUT INTO THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S IN SPOTS
(DRIER THAN ANY OF THE GUIDANCE). WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN MARGINALLY
GUSTY ACRS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.

AS OF 950 AM...ADDED A SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP ACRS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY...WHERE RADAR IS SHOWING POPCORN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. A DRY N/NE FLOW SHUD SHUNT MOST OF THAT MOISTURE AND
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH...SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THAT
AREA BY AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...UPDATED SKY COVER TO MATCH UP
WITH VIS SAT IMAGERY. THE NAM FCST SNDGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE AROUND
800 TO 700 MB MIXING OUT BY MID AFTN. SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SKY
COVER. TEMPS/DEWPTS/WIND LOOK ON TRACK.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN USA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH DOES LIKEWISE OVER THE EAST. THE BULK OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS WELL OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SE OUR AREA...WHILE A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS
NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUITE PERIOD FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
LEE TROF DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THAT SAID...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS WEST
OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE NRN MTNS ON MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE EAST COAST TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND A WLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BUT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LIMITING
INSTABILITY...AND POP TO ISOLATED NRN MTN CONVECTION. HIGHS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROP TOWARD THE AREA WED CARVING OUT A SHORT
WAVE TROF WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THU. THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA FRI...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DROPS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE AREA WED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE CWFA THU.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRI...BUT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU...WITH A DECREASE ON FRI...BUT POP REMAINING IN THE CHC
RANGE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WED...THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES THU
AND FRI...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. THERE IS JUST ENUF MOISTURE FOR A FEW CUMULUS OUT
THERE WITH BASES AROUND 7000 FT. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE WINDS (AND THAT SHUD NOT BE MUCH). WINDS SHUD FAVOR A N DIRECTION
THRU THE PERIOD (MAINLY NW THIS EVENING...THEN NE SUNDAY MORNING).
THEY WILL BE GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN
AROUND DAYBREAK TO AROUND 8-10 KTS.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. UNUSUALLY DRY AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS SETTLED
IN ACRS THE REGION. WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SO FAR
TODAY...AND GUST POTENTIAL SHUD GRADUALLY END LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. N
TO NE WIND WILL INCREASE AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH A FEW
LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE MID MORNING WHEN MIXING STARTS TO DEEPEN.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK



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