Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
226 FXUS64 KHGX 020526 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1226 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 - Isolated showers and storms possible through Thursday, mainly west of I-45. - A thin plume of Saharan dust remains over SE TX, resulting in hazy skies. - Hot and dry conditions are expected for the 4th of July and into the holiday weekend. - Heat index values up to 107F are expected this week and into the weekend. Remember to practice proper heat safety. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Latest satellite imagery and mesoanalysis show the mid-level ridge building over our region while remnants of Barry continue to move across the South/Central Texas. Locally, the influence of the ridge is bringing a drier airmass that will persist through the rest of the week. In fact, part of this dry airmass is due to Saharan dust that will remain over us through at least late Wednesday. This is a thin layer of dust; therefore, minimal impacts are expected other than some hazy skies. Despite a drier airmass over us, we cannot rule out a few showers and storms on Wednesday and Thursday. Moderate PWs remain over the region with values into the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range, which is close to the daily mean of climatology. Therefore, an isolated storm or two will be possible, especially in the afternoon with the combination of peak daytime heating and sea/bay breezes. The best rain/storm chances will be across our southwestern counties/areas west of I-45. Hot conditions and low rain chances will continue through the holiday weekend. Ridging aloft also means hotter conditions. 850mb temperatures show values into the 18 to 22 degC, suggesting surface highs in the mid to upper 90s. With south to southeasterly surface flow bringing warmer and more humid Gulf air, afternoon heat index reaching up to 107F can be expected through the weekend. With the holiday weekend coming up, remember to practice proper heat safety by staying hydrated, staying cool (taking breaks in A/C), and wearing light- colored clothes. Please, don`t forget to check on kids, the elderly, and pets. Ridge aloft weakens/shifts to the west early next week as a sfc trough develops across the northwestern Gulf. This pattern will bring back increasing rain and storm chances early next week. JM && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 604 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Despite the dry air, a lone thunderstorm was able to develop just north of the Ship Channel that slowly drifted towards IAH this afternoon. Luckily the storm has rained itself out before reaching the terminal itself, so will take VCTS mention out of the IAH TAF. VFR conditions will prevail through this evening, then some patchy fog late tonight through the early morning hours on Wednesday will develop for areas generally north of I-10 bringing periods of MVFR conditions. Fog will dissipate within an hour or two after sunrise with VFR conditions then prevailing through the rest of the day. Light, variable winds are expected through Wednesday morning becoming more predominately southerly Wednesday afternoon. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Surface high pressure to our east continues to bring light onshore winds and low seas early this week. Drier and hot conditions are anticipated through the week with only a few storms possible through Thursday. Rain and storm chances increase late Sunday into early next week as a disturbance moves through the region. Hazy skies due to Saharan dust remains over the region at least through late Wednesday, before returning into the area early this weekend. Beach conditions: Use caution heading to the beach as a moderate risk of rip currents along all Gulf-facing beaches continues through Saturday. Always swim near a lifeguard and avoid swimming near piers and jetties. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 95 75 93 75 / 10 0 20 10 Houston (IAH) 96 77 94 77 / 10 0 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 90 81 89 82 / 10 0 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$