Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 231154

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
654 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

So far all of this morning`s convection has been consolidating
under the upper low positioned off the Louisiana coastline.
Anticipating that this low will slowly meander a bit more west
and...when this very weak feature does shift west...that the
higher precipitation chances will be focused over the eastern half
of the forecast area today. Most terminals will experience VFR
decks today with mid to upper ceilings beginning to fill in
latter in the period. Causation will be a weak upper low/shear
zone setting up just east of western Texas ridging...along the
upper Texas coastline through Monday. 31


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017/

Skies are generally partly cloudy early this morning across much
of Southeast Texas. Temperatures at 4 AM range from the upper 70s
inland to the low to mid 80s at the coast. There are only a few
showers across the offshore waters at this hour. With a mid/upper
level weakness still across the area and precipitable water values
lingering around 2 inches, think we`ll see possible shower and
thunderstorm development today with the highest chances east and
lowest chances out west. Much lower rain chances are in store for
the upcoming week as upper level ridging builds into the area.
Temperatures will be warming up, eventually ranging from the
lower 90s near the coast to the upper 90s and close to 100 well
inland, and this will help to boost heat index values a little
closer to our heat index criteria of 108 degrees (will continue to
highlight this in our Hazardous Weather Outlook). Some late July
heat relief might come toward the end of the week and/or on into
next weekend as large upper level ridging out west and a deep
upper trough to the east helps to drive a frontal boundary
southward into our area.  42

Disturbed weather caused by a weak northwestern Gulf circulation
will again flare up early day scattered shower and storm activity.
Generally more active convection during the morning hours with
quickly strengthened winds and agitated seas in the vicinity of any
thunderstorm. A tighter onshore pressure gradient has strengthened
south(west)erly winds to caution levels through shortly past
sunrise. Slightly higher winds will maintain average 2 to 3 foot
sea heights. 31


College Station (CLL)      96  77  98  76  97 /  30  30  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              91  78  95  77  95 /  50  50  10  10  20
Galveston (GLS)            88  83  90  83  91 /  50  40  10  10  20


     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.



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