Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 230918

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
418 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Skies are generally partly cloudy early this morning across much
of Southeast Texas. Temperatures at 4 AM range from the upper 70s
inland to the low to mid 80s at the coast. There are only a few
showers across the offshore waters at this hour. With a mid/upper
level weakness still across the area and precipitable water values
lingering around 2 inches, think we`ll see possible shower and
thunderstorm development today with the highest chances east and
lowest chances out west. Much lower rain chances are in store for
the upcoming week as upper level ridging builds into the area.
Temperatures will be warming up, eventually ranging from the
lower 90s near the coast to the upper 90s and close to 100 well
inland, and this will help to boost heat index values a little
closer to our heat index criteria of 108 degrees (will continue to
highlight this in our Hazardous Weather Outlook). Some late July
heat relief might come toward the end of the week and/or on into
next weekend as large upper level ridging out west and a deep
upper trough to the east helps to drive a frontal boundary
southward into our area.  42

Disturbed weather caused by a weak northwestern Gulf circulation
will again flare up early day scattered shower and storm activity.
Generally more active convection during the morning hours with
quickly strengthened winds and agitated seas in the vicinity of any
thunderstorm. A tighter onshore pressure gradient has strengthened
south(west)erly winds to caution levels through shortly past
sunrise. Slightly higher winds will maintain average 2 to 3 foot
sea heights. 31


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017/

An upper low over the western Gulf will meander near the coast
into Sunday and some showers will be possible along the immediate
coast toward sunrise Sunday morning. Daytime heating will trigger
another round of afternoon storms...impacting mainly the Houston
terminals and KCXO and KSGR. Convective temps on Sunday are around
89 degrees and PW values will reach 2.15 inches by 21z with
soundings showing a weak capping inversion developing near 850 mb
but this looks breakable during peak heating. Shra/Tsra will
dissipate quickly Sunday evening with the loss of heating. A
fairly thick mid/upper cloud deck will linger over the area Sunday


College Station (CLL)      96  77  98  76  97 /  30  30  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              91  78  95  77  95 /  50  50  10  10  20
Galveston (GLS)            88  83  90  83  91 /  50  40  10  10  20


     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.



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