445
FXUS64 KHGX 121804
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
104 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

-Isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon should
gradually end this evening, though spotty/light rain will continue
tonight.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday with some
localized heavy downpours and strong storms capable of producing
gusty winds.

- Hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms are expected next week,
especially in the afternoon along the sea breeze.

- Hot and humid conditions are expected after mid-week with heat
index values reaching or potentially exceeding advisory levels.
Practice heat safety by staying hydrated, taking breaks in shade/AC
areas and wearing light-colored, lightweight clothes.

&&


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

The main concern in the near-term revolves around thunderstorm
chances and any localized heavy downpour potential. Early afternoon
analysis shows a mid-upper lvl trough moving across the TX
Panhandle, with a surface high-pressure system across the
central/eastern Gulf bringing persistent warm air advection inland.
Areal soundings and obs also show a corridor of 925-850 mb moisture
transport from the Gulf, bringing PWs at or above 2.0 inches at most
areas. As a result we are seeing widespread Cu clouds beginning to
develop across SE TX, setting up the scenario for increasing
instability and thunderstorm chances. In fact, current radar is
already showing showers and storms moving inland early this
afternoon. Overall, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms
through early evening with the higher chances in areas along and
north of I-10, which is where more forcing aloft and instability
will persist. Most of this activity will gradually end near sunset
with the loss of daytime heating. However, low rain/storm chances
remain tonight as persisting southerly surface flow continues to
bring pockets of moisture further inland from the coast.

A similar weather pattern is expected on Sunday with isolated
showers and thunderstorms in the morning, becoming more scattered in
the afternoon. Moderate to high uncertainty remains in terms of
coverage, given the amount of drier air that is filtering in at
mid- levels. However, models and latest analysis keep pointing at
higher chances in areas north of I-10 through early evening. Given
the amount of dry air aloft, any strong storms will be capable of
producing wind gusts up to 40 mph. Localized downpours will also
be possible.

A weather pattern change is expected next week with near to above
normal temperatures, resulting in heat indices near advisory
criteria and lower precipitation chances.

By Monday, the weather conditions remain entrenched in a typical
summertime regime. Expect another warm and humid day as persistent
southerly flow continues to usher in more moisture from the Gulf.
As result, scattered convection is anticipated in the afternoon,
particularly along the sea/bay breeze. After Monday, the high to
our west strengthens, creating more stable conditions across the
region through at least, early Friday. Given persistent onshore
flow, isolated afternoon storms cannot be ruled out, especially on
Tuesday. However, a drier airmass looks to prevail by mid-week,
lowering any precipitation chances. In addition to low PoPs, hot
weather comes along. Ridging aloft and surface high-pressure
could potentially bring back above normal temperatures after mid-
week. Highs are progged in the mid to upper 90s with heat index
values reaching or exceeding advisory criteria. Stay weather
alert, stay hydrated and don`t forget to practice heat safety even
when you are acclimated to this type of hot weather pattern!

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

VFR conditions across the area currently. TSRA firing up outside
the vicinity of terminals. Chance of TS remains possible at all
sites with the exception of CLL (chance too low to warrant a
mention in TAF). Brief MVFR CIGs anticipated overnight into the
mid-morning hours for CLL/CXO. Low end VFR CIGs anticipated
elsewhere overnight through mid-morning. Winds generally out of
the south through the period. Similar conditions expected for
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Surface high pressure centered across the east-central Gulf
continues to bring light to moderate south to southeast winds, with
gusts up to 20 knots the rest of today and tonight. Seas will also
remain 3 to 4 ft with occasional higher heights through Sunday. The
remainder of the week looks similar with light to moderate onshore
winds and seas up to 4ft. Keep in mind that gusty winds and elevated
seas are possible near thunderstorms. Speaking of thunderstorms,
we`ll continue with a daily risk of isolated showers and
thunderstorms. Next Wednesday and perhaps Thursday are progged to be
the driest days of the week as the surface high moves overhead. A
coastal trough will develop along the north-central Gulf coast
towards the end of the week, increasing rain and storm chances.

Beach conditions: There is a Moderate to High risk of rip current
along all Gulf-facing beaches today and Sunday. Use extra caution!
Always follow beach flag systems, swim near a lifeguard and away
from piers and jetties.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  91  75  92  75 /  50  10  30  10
Houston (IAH)  91  77  93  77 /  60  10  50  10
Galveston (GLS)  90  83  90  83 /  50  10  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...JM