Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 191002

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
402 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Early this morning an elongated 500mb trough stretched from the
Tennessee Valley across the Big Bend and into west cntl Mexico. A
well defined vort was noted just west of the area in scntl TX. At
the surface, a coastal trough has set up along the Texas coast.
Expecting an increase in precip coverage, especially south of I-10
and offshore this morning and afternoon as the upper trough &
vort advance eastward. A few thunderstorms are possible offshore.

Northeast winds across inland areas this morning will gradually
veer to the southeast late today into Saturday bringing areas of
fog/drizzle/-ra typically associated with an advancing warm front
off the Gulf. Nearshore water temperatures have cooled substantially
as of late (mid 40s bays, low 50s 20nm offshore) so would also
anticipate sea fog development as the warmer airmass moves

The next trof now situated off the west coast will make its way
into the Plains late in the weekend. Its associated front should
push through se TX late Sunday night and off the coast by early
Monday morning. A band of shra/tstms will probably be associated
with the frontal passage, but overall instability is limited so
threat of strong/severe cells appears low. Sea fog will clear out
in its wake and dry, seasonable wx should then persist into mid
to late parts of next week. 47


Light/moderate east winds this morning will continue to slowly veer
to the southeast throughout this afternoon. Wind speeds will likely
be increasing as well today/tonight as an area of low pressure dev-
elops over the coastal waters of the lower TX coast. This system is
expected to slowly drift east/remaining offshore, but its proximity
should help to increase rain chances across the region. Between the
periods of unsettled weather, expect patchy sea fog to develop late
tonight as much warmer air is drawn across the cooler shelf waters.
This fog threat is likely to persist into Sun night...when the next
strong cold front is forecast to push off the coast. SCEC/SCA flags
are expected for Mon morning. 41


Forecast expected to become messier as the day wears on as moisture
continues to move back into the area...along with lower CIGS/precip
from the SW. Based on the ongoing trends, will likely keep with the
MVFR CIGS for this afternoon/IFR CIGS for tonight...then timing the
bouts of showers with VCSH. With sea fog expected to be an issue at
GLS...will probably have to keep an eye on VIS there. 41


College Station (CLL)      51  49  69  60  74 /  20  30  20  20  50
Houston (IAH)              56  53  71  60  74 /  40  30  30  20  30
Galveston (GLS)            57  55  64  58  68 /  50  50  30  20  20




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