Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 230903

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
303 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Early morning surface analysis shows a surface ridge stretching
from southern Texas northeast into the Ohio Valley, with calm to
light northerly winds in place across Southeast Texas as a result.
Save for a few high clouds associated with an upper level jet
streak diving south across Texas, GOES-16 infrared imagery shows
clear skies around most of the state. With excellent radiational
cooling conditions in place, temperatures will continue to fall
into the mid 30s to lower 40s with a few locations in the Piney
Woods possibly touching freezing for an hour or two around
sunrise. Despite the cool start this Thanksgiving morning, a very
dry airmass (precipitable water values less than 0.5 inches) and
sunny skies today will allow for temperatures again to climb back
up into the mid to possibly upper 60s again today.

Dry north to northwest flow aloft will persist across the region
today through this weekend with a gradual warming trend beginning
Friday as upper ridging over the Desert Southwest nudges towards
the east. Lows in the 40s to low 50s on Friday morning will
quickly warm into the lower 70s Friday afternoon. A mid/upper
trough skirting the northern CONUS states on Friday is expected to
drag a cold front across Southeast Texas on Saturday. Onshore
flow ahead of the front on Saturday is expected to result in
temperatures anywhere from 5-10 degrees warmer than Friday as lows
start out in the upper 40s to low 60s and highs climb into the mid
70s to near 80. Near record temperatures may be possible along the
coast, with Galveston`s record high for November 25 set at 78
degrees in 2010. The cold front will move across the region
Saturday evening and night, but will only have a minor impact on
temperatures Sunday with highs in the low to mid 70s. Currently
expecting a dry frontal passage with the front as precipitable
water values remain under 1 inch this weekend.

Upper ridging will shift farther east over the region at the
beginning of next week, ahead of a trough moving across the CONUS
from the Pacific. Temperatures will rise back into the mid to
upper 70s as a result before the passing trough brings another
cold front into Southeast Texas on Tuesday or Wednesday. Medium
range guidance has lost some of the agreement it was displaying 24
hours ago, with the European now advertising a slower and weaker
frontal passage that hangs up closer to the coast than the
GFS/Canadian. Due to this recent inconsistency and the trend the
past few weeks for more progressive frontal systems across the
region, have trended closer towards the GFS/Canadian for the front
during the mid-week period. Expect at least low rain chances
during this time as onshore flow advects moisture back into the
region ahead of the front.



High pressure ridging into S TX will produce light to moderate
offshore winds through Friday morning. Seas will remain slightly
elevated early this morning but are expected to decrease by
afternoon. Onshore winds will develop Friday as the high moves
east and low pressure develops over N TX. Another cold front will
cross the coastal waters Saturday night with an offshore flow
expected Sunday. Onshore winds are expected to return on Monday as
low pressure develops over the central plains. A moderate onshore
flow is expected Mon night and Tuesday as another area of low
pressure moves across the plains. 43


Still some minor concern wrt to fire weather. A dry airmass has
filtered into Southeast Texas with minimum RH values between 20-25
percent expected this afternoon but winds have weakened and are
expected to remain light today. Some concern that fine fuels like
grasses will be very dry later today and outdoor cooking could
spark some grass fires. 43


College Station (CLL)      66  42  73  48  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              66  42  72  51  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            65  51  69  60  76 /   0   0   0   0   0


     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.



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