Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 221146
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
646 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.AVIATION...
Anticipating a more active day with early day (near) coastal showers
leading to a higher areal coverage of afternoon thunderstorms.
Other than tempo MVFR conditions within visibility-reducing high
rainfall and gusty winds as storms pass through...VFR cats will
prevail under partially cloudy skies and light S-SW breezes. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Increasing Louisiana area shower and thunderstorm coverage early this
morning in association with the northern Gulf of Mexico upper level
low will gradually work its way westward and into our area over the
weekend as the low continues heading westward. We`ll generally carry
increasing increasing rain chances today through Sunday as both
instability and moisture levels rise. The extra cloud cover should
cool high temperatures down a couple degrees for a large part of
the area. Models continue to indicate lowering precipitable water
values during much of the upcoming week as mid/upper level high
pressure attempts to build into our area, but for now we`ll need
to keep some low mainly daytime rain chances in the forecast. The
main weather story might end up being rising heat indices as the
upcoming week progresses. Area dew points stay in the 70s while
mid 90s to around 100 afternoon high temperatures become more
common, and this could have the potential to bring heat indices
closer to our 108 degree heat advisory criteria.  42

MARINE...
A weak circulation moving across the northern Gulf today will
increase areal shower and storm coverage through the weekend.
Generally more active convection during the overnight hours with an
anticipation for quickly strengthened winds and agitated seas in the
vicinity of any thunderstorm. A tighter onshore pressure gradient
over the next few days will increase south(west)erly winds to near
caution levels across the far offshore Gulf waters during the early
morning hours. Today`s 1 to near 2 foot seas will lift to 2 to 4
foot seas by tomorrow morning. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      96  76  96  76  98 /  30  20  30  20  10
Houston (IAH)              93  78  93  78  96 /  50  20  50  30  10
Galveston (GLS)            90  82  90  83  91 /  50  30  30  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...42
Aviation/Marine...31



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