Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 191204

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
700 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

A change in the recently static forecast for aviators today. A
storm system passing across northeastern Texas this morning may
spit out a gust front ahead of a weak larger scale frontal
boundary that will be entering our northern counties just as late
morning temperatures warm into the upper 80s. Lift from a outflow
boundary into a near 90 F and moist air mass will increase the
odds of near noon thunderstorm development across the northern
terminals. Further advancing sea breeze boundary into the
second tier counties by early afternoon may generate late morning
towering cumulus/showers that could transition to more metro area
early to mid afternoon thunderstorm behavior. Late afternoon through
early evening convection will be all mesoscale-driven and northern
storm southern-propagating gust fronts may interact with sea
breeze-driven cells. Inland activity should dwindle down by late
evening with the short range higher resolution models developing
evening (near) coastal county precipitation ahead...or along this
aforementioned larger scale boundary as it becomes more diffuse on
its southern trek to the coast. 31


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017/

Early morning radar imagery shows Northeast Texas area showers/
thunderstorms developing and moving southward, and some of this
activity and/or its remnants/boundaries should work their way into
our area during the day today. Could also see some development
near the coast along a possible sea breeze boundary this afternoon.
Will continue to go with only 20% to 30% POPs and adjust upward if
needed as we see how everything unfolds. It is possible that some
of this activity could linger on into the evening hours. Have low
rain chances near the coast beginning on Tuesday, then gradually
raise the chances (lowest northwest and highest southeast) for the
remainder of the week as we wait to see how everything unfolds with
the broad area of low pressure near the east coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. The National Hurricane Center`s most recent Tropical
Weather Outlook continues to say that gradual development of this
system is expected when it moves over the southern or central Gulf
of Mexico later today and Tuesday where a tropical or subtropical
cyclone is likely to form (80% chance of formation through 48 hours
and a 90% chance through 5 days). Models continue to show different
scenarios on how this will all evolve, and this will probably persist
until we get better system organization for the models to handle,
hopefully some time later today if the reconnaissance flight can
investigate. There could be significant changes to our forecast over
the next several days.  42

Still much uncertainty concerning the evolution of the area of
disturbed weather over the Yucatan Peninsula region today. The
majority of the models take either a tropical wave or tropical storm
into the central Gulf by tomorrow then slowly move the system
towards the central Gulf Coast. This is the scenario that this
morning`s wind and wave forecast is based upon. After a day of light
east northeast winds over 2 to 4 foot seas...northeasterlies will
begin to strengthen to Caution levels Tuesday especially over the
far offshore waters. Wednesday`s northeasterlies will reach Advisory
levels and average seas will build from 4 to 5 feet late Tuesday to
as high as 7 to 9 feet across the 20-60 nm waters by Wednesday
afternoon. Light onshore winds will veer around to onshore by
Thursday afternoon. The onshore pressure gradient will tighten late
in the work week and aid in producing Caution level winds going into
next weekend. Churned up seas and a slightly higher period swell
from the early to mid week tropical system will be slow to subside
and should remain fairly elevated through the week. 31


College Station (CLL)      93  75  94  73  95 /  20  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              95  75  95  73  94 /  20  10  20  10  20
Galveston (GLS)            90  80  90  79  89 /  20  10  20  20  30




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