Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 040926
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
426 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO
EXTREME NORTH TEXAS. SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST HAS HELPED
TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THESE WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AT 850 MB...A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS NORTH ARKANSAS INTO SOUTH
OKLAHOMA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND A SECOND
AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A 700 MB
TROUGH EXTENDED INTO NE TEXAS WITH SUBTLE WARMING AT BOTH LCH AND
CRP. AT 500 MB...A TOUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. WINDS AT 250 MB WERE SPLITTING OVER EAST TEXAS AND
MODELS KEEP A DIVERGENT WIND FIELD IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY.

FCST SOUNDINGS PROG PW VALUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY PEAKING
BETWEEN 1.9 AND 2.3 INCHES. CAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 3000 J/KG AND LI`S ARE -7 TO -10. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
BETWEEN 86 AND 90 DEGREES SO DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH THE
WEAKNESS AT 700-500 MB AND A DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD
SHOULD YIELD A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
MODELS ARE NOT AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TODAY BUT THINK
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY AFTN. SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL BE ON THE STRONG/SEVERE SIDE WITH CAPE AOA 3000 AND AN
INVERTED V SIGNATURE EVIDENT ON FCST SOUNDINGS. HAVE ADDED SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE TO THE WX GRIDS/ZONES FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CONDS SHOULD CLEAR IN TIME FOR AREA
FIREWORKS TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTING EAST.

ON SUNDAY...THE TROUGH IS FURTHER EAST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE STATE. PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.7-1.9
INCHES WITH LITTLE CAPPING IN PLACE. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
CONSIDERABLY DRIER MOISTURE PROFILE AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND
90. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER TOMORROW BUT AM
HESITANT TO COMPLETELY PULL POPS SO WILL MAINTAIN THE 20 POPS
ALREADY IN THE GRIDS. THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH PW
VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1.4-1.5 INCHES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
TRY TO DEVELOP MID WEEK BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FEATURE REALLY
DOESN`T DEVELOP UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
CLIMO EARLY IN THE WEEK AND GRADUALLY WARM TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. MID 90S LOOK LIKE A POSSIBILITY BY NEXT THU/FRI WITH WARMER
TEMPS POSSIBLE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. 43

&&

.MARINE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE GULF WATERS MOVING NORTH OR NORTHEAST WITH
TIME SHOULD WANE BY 8-9 AM. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND LEE SIDE TROUGHING
THAT EVENTUALLY MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS BY EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS
SHOULD MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 12-17KT RANGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS OF 2-4 FEET NEARSHORE AND 3 TO 6 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE. THE SHOWERS SHOULD RETURN AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING BUT AFTER
THAT EXPECT DECREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS. ONE POSSIBLE FLY IN THAT
OINTMENT WOULD BE A DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE AND NUDGING
STORMS OUT OF LA INTO THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MORE
LIKELY THE STORMS WOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BUT
WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY. TROPICS LOOK QUIET
THROUGH THE WEEK.
45

&&

.AVIATION...

PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING A COMBINATION OF LIGHT FOG
AND BKN ST AT 2000-3000FT. SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD STRUGGLE TO
PENETRATE INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING BUT AS LL FLOW BACKS WITH
HEATING THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN THE INLAND CREEP OFFSET BY CAPPING.
WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE COASTAL SITES THROUGH 15-16Z THEN TRANSITION
INLAND SITES TO VCSH/VCTS. EXPECT THAT AROUND 17-18Z MOST SITES
SHOULD NEAR CONVECTIVE TEMPS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WINDS IN PULSE TYPE STORMS A DECENT THREAT AND PLAN TO KEEP
THE GUSTY WINDS IN THE TERMINALS ACCOMPANYING TSRA. AT THE MOMENT
THINK THAT 20-23Z SHOULD BE THE GREATEST CHANCE AT IAH...AN HOUR OR
SO EARLIER FOR HOU AND HOUR LATER FOR CXO AS SEABREEZE NOSES INLAND
AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      92  76  92  75  93 /  30  20  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              93  77  93  77  93 /  50  20  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            89  82  90  81  91 /  40  10  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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