Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 301121
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
621 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAF SITES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KLBX AND KGLS.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING SO
OTHER THAN KGLS...FEEL CONDS WILL BE VFR. KHGX VWP SHOWS 20-25 KT
E-NE WINDS AND FEEL MODELS MIGHT BE TOO LIGHT WITH SPEEDS SO
INCREASED SPEEDS FOR THIS MORNING ONCE MIXING BEGINS.ONLY OTHER
CHANGE TO PREV TAF PCKG WAS TO ADD VCSH FOR KCLL LATE TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. A RIBBON OF DEEPER MSTR OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL EXTEND FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW FOR SCT
SHRA/TSRA. FCST SOUNDING AT KCLL LOOKS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO GET
THUNDER BUT WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR NOW. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WERE LINGERING JUST OUTSIDE
OUR COASTAL WATERS IN AN AREA OF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG YESTERDAY/S FRONT. DRY AIR FILTERING BEHIND THE FRONT /WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES/
WAS HELPING TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...WITH ONLY ONE OR TWO AREAS
REPORTING LOWERED VISIBILITIES.

THE GENERAL UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTED OF RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST...PLACING THE INTERIOR
OF THE COUNTRY IN NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE... 08Z ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE NEXT...STRONGER FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA
STRETCHING ACROSS MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY WILL PUSH THIS FRONT TOWARDS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS FRONT TO
ENTER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 09Z TOMORROW...HAVING MADE IT TO
THE COAST BY 15Z. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP...TO ABOUT 10-15 MPH OUT
OF THE NORTH...BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW.

REMNANT GULF MOISTURE RESIDING OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE
/AROUND 850 MB/ WILL EXPERIENCE ENOUGH LIFT AS THIS FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD FOR SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO
DEVELOP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS /INCLUDING THE TTU
WRF...ARW...AND NMM/ SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE
HOW FAR EAST ANY ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT DEVELOPS...AND THIS WILL
BE LIMITED BY THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. FOR NOW...THINK
THE GREATEST CHANCES RESIDE WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR
WHERE PWAT VALUES ARE HIGHER.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE IT ACTUALLY FEEL LIKE FALL ON FRIDAY
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70/S. BY FRIDAY EVENING...
TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A GREAT HALLOWEEN EVENING. EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO DOMINATE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE 40S AT MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS. OF NOTE...BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS
WILL SEE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WE/VE SEEN AT HOUSTON
INTERCONTINENTAL THIS YEAR SINCE MAY 15.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF STILL
DISAGREE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE... BRINGING A DEEP...OPEN WAVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF TEXAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS
PATTERN ALSO ALLOWS ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
MID-WEEK. THE ECMWF INSTEAD MEANDERS A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND INTO WEST TEXAS...AND DOESN/T PUSH THE FRONT INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. BOTH SOLUTIONS STILL TAP INTO GULF AND PACIFIC
MOISTURE AND INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN
EVENT...HOWEVER THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO INSTILL
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

14/MH

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST TODAY.
A SECOND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH
SOUTH AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY.
MODERATE TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRI NITE AND A SCEC/SCA MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON
SATURDAY AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN SAT NITE. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN STRONG ONSHORE WINDS. THE ECMWF AND GFS
DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT WITH THE GFS
CONSIDERABLY FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT NORTH OF SE TX AND WASHES THE
FRONT OUT. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  73  45  65  44 /  40  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  76  47  68  45 /  20  10   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  75  56  66  57 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43



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