Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 282022
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
222 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE FIVE TO TEN DEGREES WARMER THIS AFTERNOON THAN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME THANKS TO WARMING 850 TEMPS AND A RETURN OF
ONSHORE WINDS. THE CHANGE OF AIR MASS CAN BE SEEN VERY NICELY THIS
AFTERNOON ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE AS PATCHY CLOUDINESS OVER THE
AREA.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
DUE TO 850 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND 12C FOR THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING WHICH
MIGHT PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE (AS SUPPORTED BY DEPTH OF SATURATION ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS) BUT WILL QUICKLY WASH OUT BY SUNDAY EVENING.
ON SATURDAY A POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND HEAD OFF TO THE EAST DRAGGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WITH IT. THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOOKING MUCH BETTER FOR MONDAY THANKS TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NOW OVER THE AREA. INSTABILITY REMAINS
EXTREMELY LIMITED THOUGH SO ANY PRECIP WILL LIKELY REMAIN SHOWER
BASED. GFS OMEGA VALUES HAVE ALSO COME UP A BIT WITH PWATS
FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 1.30" AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DUE TO THE ABOVE
AVERAGE MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT HAVE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY
FOR MONDAY.

AFTER THE FRONT NEXT MONDAY MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT BUT STILL REMAIN FUZZY ON THE DETAILS. THE
CONTINUED CAUSE FOR CONFUSION WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS IS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH CALIFORNIA NEXT WEDNESDAY.
THE EURO TAKES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHEARS IT OUT WHILE PUSHING
IT INTO THE FLOW. THE GFS IS SIMILAR BUT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
SHORT WAVE. THANKS TO THE SHORT WAVE BEING FARTHER SOUTH THE GFS
PUSHES A FRONT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND STALLS IT OVER THE AREA.
EITHER WAY RAIN LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS AS IT HAS VERIFIED BETTER THAN THE
EURO AS OF LATE. 23

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MARINERS IN SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY OVER THE GULF WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A
BIT LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST ON MONDAY EVENING WITH A
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WIND WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS
THROUGH SUNDAY. 43

&&

AVIATION...
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS TREND AND KEEPS CONDS GENERALLY
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT. ADDED A GUST GROUP FOR TOMORROW AS STRONG WINDS ALOFT MIX
TO THE SURFACE. HAVE ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO THE HOUSTON TAFS
AS WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY FROM THE SFC TO 2000
FT. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  77  62  77  60 /   0  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              57  77  63  78  62 /   0   0  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  74  63  73  64 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43


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