Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 231729
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1129 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS ARE SKC. SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON (SOMETIMES CLOSE
TO 20 KNOTS) THEN WILL DECREASE AROUND 00Z. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT (BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z NORTHERN
SITES (CLL/UTS/CXO) AND BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z SOUTHERN SITES (IAH/HOU/SGR/
LBX/GLS). EXPECT GUSTY NW TO N WINDS UNTIL AROUND 15Z WHEN WINDS BECOME
MORE OUT OF THE N AND BECOME LESS GUSTY.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...
ONLY SOME LOW STRATUS REMAINS THIS MORNING OVER THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM YESTERDAY/S STORM SYSTEM...AND THESE
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. OTHERWISE... MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS AT
10 AM SHOWED THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TONIGHT STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A SURFACE
LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WAS RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. THIS... IN COMBINATION
WITH CLEAR SKIES TODAY ALLOWING FOR MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT... WILL RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT BREEZY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
OTHERWISE... THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A PLEASANT AND DRY
DAY WITH THE ONLY TWEAKS MADE BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
CAUTION FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES AND SWLY LLVL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD WARM-UP THIS AFTN. NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. IT`LL BE MOISTURE STARVED SO
THIS WILL BE A DRY FROPA. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
AND STICK AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK AND PROVIDE DRY AND MAINLY
SEASONABLE WX. (THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE
STATE ON TUE THAT WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON. RIGHT NOW IT JUST LOOKS TO
BRING SOME CLOUDINESS...THOUGH A FEW MODELS ARE TRYING TO SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW SHRA. WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF OFFSHORE, THIS
LOOKS FAIRLY UNLIKELY ATTM GIVEN DRY ATMOS IN PLACE.)

SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE NW GULF BY LATE WED AND LLVL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO A SWLY DIRECTION WED-FRI AND A WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE. HAVE BUMPED UP CONSENSUS TEMPS IN OUR GRIDS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...AND QUITE POSSIBLY NOT ENOUGH. HIGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY THANKSGIVING.

LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING NEXT WEEKEND`S WX AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS
ARE NOT YET ON THE SAME PAGE. ECMWF SENDS THE TAIL END OF A COLD
FRONT INTO SE TX ALONG W/ ASSOCIATED PRECIP ON SAT THEN WASHES IT
OUT NEAR THE COAST ON SUNDAY. GFS KEEPS A WARMER SLY FLOW IN PLACE
OVER THE WEEKEND. 47

MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED ALL FLAGS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE LARGE STORM COMPLEX OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT/MODERATE W/SW
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTN AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TO
THE E/NE. WINDS TO SHIFT/STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MODERATE/STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE FRONTS
WAKE TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUES...DECREASING AND BECOMING MORE W/SW BY
WEDS. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE. THESE S/SE WINDS PROGGED TO BEGIN INCREASING FRI AND
ON INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST.
SOME QUESTIONS ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT HOPEFULLY THINGS BECOME CLEARER AS MOVE AHEAD.
41

AVIATION...
FIRST 6-8HRS OF THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH LOW
CIGS (LIFR/IFR) IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE STORM COMPLEX THAT MOVED A-
CROSS OVERNIGHT. THEREAFTER GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WSW
WINDS FOR THE AFTN/EVE. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE GOING FROPA TIMES
TONIGHT (04-06Z). 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      80  45  65  40  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  49  67  42  63 /  10   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  54  65  51  62 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...42



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