Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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480
FXUS64 KHGX 302035
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
335 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Overall another nice fall day with high temperatures reaching the
low 80s this afternoon. High pressure over the area should allow
for calm winds and clear skies. Minimum temperatures should drop
back into the 50s again with 60s along the coast. Water vapor
imagery and upper air analysis still show closed upper low over
the Ohio River Valley but the upper level ridge over Texas and the
plains has flattened some in response to the upper low over the
Pacific Coast.

Upper level low over the Ohio river valley should begin to move NE
over the Great Lakes as a deep trough takes shape over the West
Coast. Surface high pressure moves east over the weekend and east
to southeast winds develop. Still min temperatures in the 60s and
max temperatures in the 80s look on track and provide at least a
hint of fall weather.

Overpeck

&&

.LONG TERM...
Relatively quiet weather is forecast to continue into next week,
with only a handful of showers in the offshore waters expected
Sunday/Monday. An upper level trough moves through the plains next
week, but there is some disagreement between the models as to how
deep it will be. ECMWF has a deeper trough and a weak cold front
passing through SE Texas on Thursday, while the GFS is keeping the
front well to the north. PoPs are in the 20-30% range Wed-Thu for
now. Highs will slowly rebound through the weekend, eventually
ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s Tuesday and Wednesday.

11

&&

.TROPICAL WEATHER...
Hurricane Matthew has strengthened into a Cat 3 system and could
possibly reach Cat 4 in the central Caribbean. Matthew is still
expected to slow down in speed and then make a turn NW and N this
weekend. The system should be affecting Jamaica by Monday.
Synoptic models still on track with a weak upper trough over the
Gulf forming Sunday and Monday which will continue to steer
Matthew northward into the Atlantic and along the East Coast.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      59  83  61  85  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              60  85  65  87  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            71  82  73  83  74 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...39
Long Term...11



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