Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 190015

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
615 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

A mid-level cloud deck continues to cover all TAF sites this
evening, with a slightly lower deck over the northern terminals
at 5000 feet and 8000-9000 feet decks closer to the coast. These
mid-level clouds will continue to lower through the overnight
hours, as an area of low pressure approaches from the middle Texas
coast Friday morning. This system will bring showers to the area
with an isolated chance of thunderstorms along the coast.
Therefore, carrying VCSH at the coastal TAF sites beginning at
12Z with these showers spreading inland across the metro TAF
sites through the afternoon hours. Introduced VCTS at both LBX and
GLS starting 20-21Z Friday to account for the possibility of
isolated thunderstorms through the early evening hours. Wind
speeds will increase to 7-11 kts through the afternoon as this
area of low pressure moves across SE TX.

Ceilings will shift from VFR to MVFR conditions as this system
moves through the region. Went ahead and lowered visibilities
along the coast late Friday into early Saturday to account for
potential misty/foggy conditions which could develop underneath
the MVFR ceilings. Ceilings should also lower beginning in the
north late Friday afternoon into early Saturday, with borderline
MVFR to IFR conditions possible, as indicated at CLL.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/


Persistent cloud cover across central areas has kept temps in the
upper 30s so far this afternoon. Have seen some low to mid 40s across
sw and northern areas where we have seen some cloud cover thin
at times. Expect to see cloudy skies tonight as moisture depths increase
and an upper level low approaches. Will see a much warmer night tonight,
but will still likely see freezing temps near Houston and to the north.
Do not expect any areas to experience a hard freeze tonight.

A sfc trof and/or broad weak sfc low will develop just off the Texas
coast late tonight and on Friday. This feature coupled with an upper
level low that will move across on Friday and will trigger showers
areawide and possibly some thunderstorm activity near the coast and
offshore. The chance of rain will be greatest offshore and near the
southern coast around Matagorda bay and taper downward well inland.
However, most of the area will see a chance of showers tomorrow.

The chance of rain will increase again on Sunday afternoon ahead of
a large scale upper low that will be centered across the central plains.
Southerly winds will increase on Saturday and Sunday ahead of this storm
system and this will lead to much warmer temperatures. The best chance of rain
will occur on Sunday afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front that will
move through on Sunday night. A fairly transient and zonal mid-upper level
flow pattern will be present most of next week with a couple of chances for
precipitation. The first occurring on Wednesday (near the coast and offshore)
and then again at the end of next week on Friday as a large mid/upper trof
begins to amplify across the western U.S. 33


Winds will gradually veer to the southeast tomorrow as high pressure
moves to the east of the region. As an area of low pressure develops
offshore on Friday, winds will continue to veer to southerly as
seas build. Chances of rain will increase heading into the weekend.
In between periods of precipitation, expect patchy sea fog to
develop late Friday as warmer air moves over the colder shelf water.
The fog threat will persist into Sunday evening when the next cold
front is forecast to push off the coast. 22


College Station (CLL)      32  51  47  67  58 /  10  20  40  30  20
Houston (IAH)              33  54  51  69  60 /  10  30  40  40  20
Galveston (GLS)            40  56  54  65  58 /  10  50  50  30  20




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