Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 181755
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1155 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR 5-9k ft BKN-OVC ceilings through the early Friday morning
hours...lowering into MVFR around or just after sunrise. Warm air
advection pattern will be kicking in from tonight through the next
cold frontal passage on Sunday night/Monday morning. A developing
western Gulf low and the existence of a coastal warm front moving
inland tomorrow will thicken up and lower Friday overcast and
increase southern hub showers. VCSH from metro southward Friday
morning...more widespread light precipitation transitioning
further north from tomorrow afternoon through Sunday. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Cloud cover spreading northeast across the area this morning.
Appears we will see mostly cloudy skies areawide by mid-day.
Slightly cooler max temps when compared to model guidance appears
to be the way to go this aft. Only minor adjustments are being
made to the aft temp forecast. We should see lower 40s across most
areas by mid afternoon. The far northern areas could remain in
the upper 30s depending on the degree of cloud cover. 33

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/

DISCUSSION...
The Hard Freeze Warning remains in effect until 9 AM this morning
for counties mainly along and north of Interstate 10 where 3 AM
temperatures are in the mid teens to lower 20s. To the south of
these spots, temperatures are generally ranging from the mid to
upper 20s inland to the low to mid 30s at the coast. Cloud cover
that has been making slow progress to the northeast across our
area is partly associated with the slow moving far west Texas area
mid/upper level low. These clouds will likely keep high temperatures
in the low to mid 40s across a majority of the area today, and will
probably keep tonight`s/Friday morning`s low temperatures mostly
in the 30s. Expect to see increasing rain chances mainly Friday
and Friday night as the low moves eastward across the state. Will
adjust these rain chances (and gain a little more confidence) over
the next day or two as models hopefully come into better agreement
with the location/strength/movement of the low. We are more confident
with the temperature forecast that becomes significantly warmer
(highs in the 50s Friday, in the 60s/70s Saturday and mostly in
the 70s on Sunday) as south to southeast winds return to the area
and strengthen. Look for increasing shower and possible thunderstorm
chances Sunday and Sunday night associated with the approach and
passage of a Pacific cold front. Will continue to keep the first
half of next week dry with temperatures mainly near normal.  42

MARINE...
As surface high pressure moves away, a coastal trof will develop
along the Tx coast. Winds will veer to the NE & E today and
eventually from the E to SE Friday. The pressure gradient will
tighten so wind speeds will increase and seas will build offshore.
May need small craft advisories in the 20-60nm group as early as
Friday.

The cold water temps closer to the coast will limit onshore wind
speeds, but with a warmer airmass moving overhead we do expect to
see some sea fog development by Friday evening in between periods of
precipitation going into Saturday. The sea fog will remain a threat
until the next front (and probably line of showers/tstms) Sunday
night. Moderate offshore winds in its wake may require caution/advsy
flags into Monday. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      30  52  46  67  59 /  10  30  40  20  30
Houston (IAH)              34  53  52  71  60 /  10  30  40  30  20
Galveston (GLS)            41  55  52  66  60 /  10  50  50  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...33
Aviation/Marine...31


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