Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 260855
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
355 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Southeast Texas looks to remain on the southern edge of mid/upper level
ridging today, and this position in combination with daytime heating
and precipitable water values rising back above 2 inches as deeper
tropical moisture levels surge into the area from the Gulf should allow
for some shower/thunderstorm development. Some models are indicating
this increasing rain probability/coverage while others are keeping
a majority of the area dry. For now, 20%-30% POPs look good, and will
adjust upward during the day if needed. Lowering pw values and slightly
stronger ridging should keep most of the area dry Thursday and Friday.
Heat and increasing heat index values are still the main weather concern
over the next several days. As noted for a while now, heat index values
in parts of our forecast area will be approaching our heat advisory
criteria of 108 degrees, and heat advisories might be needed. The weather
pattern changes over the weekend and into next week as ridging moves
westward and an eastern U.S. trough sets up. This should allow a frontal
boundary and associated increasing rain chances to enter our area over
the weekend and possibly persist on and off into next week, but initially
the western ridge might stay strong enough to keep a majority of the
rainfall off to our east as depicted by the latest WPC QPF forecasts.
Better rain chances might end up coming toward the middle to end of
next week when ridging influence moves westward and Southern Plains
troughing sets up. This pattern change is supported by CPC`s 6 to 10
day and 8 to 14 day outlooks that indicate increasing probabilities
of below normal temperatures and above normal rainfall.  42
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      99  77 100  78 101 /  20  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              95  77  97  78  98 /  20  10  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            89  82  93  82  92 /  20  10  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$



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