Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS64 KHGX 171625

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1025 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Currently, the only reflectivity on radar imagery is the line of
showers located over the eastern coastal waters. These showers
have looked to have formed over a moisture plume evident in the
mid-levels and also over an area with surface speed convergence
which can be seen in the marine observations. This axis of
showers should remain underneath the strong cap at 850 mb seen in
the forecast soundings, and should continue to shift slowly

A deck of stratus clouds are continuing to build in from the
northwest this morning, which will influence our temperatures and
wind speeds today. Short term guidance keeps these mid-level
clouds over the region through late afternoon before the deck
begins to rise, while attempting to scatter out by early this
evening. High temperatures for your Friday are expected to reach
into the low 80s across the region, with upper 70s along the



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017/

IFR/MVFR ceilings are impacting most of the inland terminals this
morning (LIFR at CXO). Southerly to southeasterly winds have
remained elevated in the 5-10 knot range for most of the night,
but where winds have dropped off patchy fog has also been able to
develop. Visibilities as low as VLIFR will be possible at the more
sheltered locations of LBX and CXO, with visibilities elsewhere
in the IFR to MVFR range. Expect low stratus and fog to persist
before lifting to VFR 14-18Z with onset of daytime heating and
strengthening surface winds. Deepening lee troughing over the High
Plains today will cause southerly winds to increase into the
10-15 knot range by mid- morning with gusts in the 15-25 knot
range possible through early evening (especially where breaks in
cloud cover allow for more mixing). Expect winds to remain
elevated overnight ahead of an approaching cold front that is not
expected to reach the Southeast Texas terminals until after the
end of the TAF period. Another round of IFR/MVFR stratus will be
possible overnight as a 30-35 knot low level jet develops ahead of
the cold front.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017/

WAA strengthening this morning with abundant cloud cover/stratus
and little patchy fog but light southerly winds keeping the fog in
check. A warm day with 10-20mph south and southwesterly winds
today. Yesterday`s surface ridging tailing down into the region
has shifted to MS/AL as the Pineapple Express atmospheric river
dumps copious snow/rain over high terrain in CA thanks in large
part to the upper trough swinging through the Pacific Northwest.
This upper trough will race east swinging a cold front through
SETX Saturday afternoon. Rain chances will remain relatively low
with a strong to very strong cap in place over SETX today and
Saturday. As the front reaches the Highway 59 corridor the rain
chances will be improving getting out from underneath the capping
influence. Doubting we see more than 0.10" of rain out of this
system. Gusty northerly flow in the wake of the cold front will
usher in much drier air Saturday night/Sunday. Slightly elevated
fire weather conditions possible Sunday with RH values dipping
into the lower to mid 20 percent range but with winds gradually
dissipating in the morning and by afternoon when the driest
conditions will occur winds should be 10 knots or less.
Temperatures will drop back closer to normal Sunday and hold for a
few days. Ridging moves east and a warm front draws back north
into the area early Tuesday with a deepening upper trough over
SETX/LA/Wrn Gulf through Thanksgiving. GFS/ECMWF have been
differing on this evolution the last few days and are gradually
converging on a solution that brings back rain chances Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Greater rain chances should be over the southern
half of the area and especially over the Gulf waters. Another cold
front sweeps through Tuesday night which should set the stage for
a Thanksgiving that should be dry and cool...okay not technically
cool as temperatures should right about spot on with climatology
for the date...lows in the mid to upper 40s and highs in the
60s...but cool compared to the month of well above normal


Onshore flow will increase today through Saturday ahead of an
approaching cold front with caution to possibly advisory flags
needed tonight as winds and waves build. Expect a thin band of
showers to develop along the cold front as it pushes off the Upper
Texas Coast Saturday night. Strong offshore flow behind the cold
front will warrant Small Craft Advisories through Sunday and gusts
near gale force will be possible Saturday night before the thermal
gradient behind the cold front relaxes. Light offshore flow becomes
established by Sunday night before veering onshore by Tuesday ahead
of the next cold front.



College Station (CLL)      83  67  79  45  66 /  10  20  20   0   0
Houston (IAH)              82  69  84  48  66 /  10  10  20   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            79  71  80  55  66 /  10  10  30  10   0




Update...08 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.