Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 221006
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
506 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Tropical Storm Cindy has officially made landfall in southwestern
Louisiana this morning between Port Arthur Texas and Cameron
Louisiana. Tropical Storm Warnings across our area have been
cancelled as of 4 AM CDT. TS Cindy will continue to move north at
a decent clip and be over the ArkLaTex region by late tonight.
Coastal winds did briefly gust to Tropical Storm force yesterday
evening with water levels at high tide achieving 4 feet (MLLW)
that led to water run up/debris over the Brazoria and Galveston
County coastal roadways. Most areas along and east of I-45 picked
up 1 to 3 inches of overnight rainfall with eastern Chambers
County recording the highest totals at slightly over 3 inches. As
Cindy travels north up the Sabine River Valley...trailing bands
of showers with embedded thunderstorms will travel in from the
north and these may put down another 1 to 2 inches of rain...locally
2 to 3 inches across more northeastern counties such as Polk or
Trinity Counties...by tomorrow afternoon. Friday`s prog soundings
show an early day mid-level cap that will erode once surface
temperatures warm into the lower 80s. Thus this forecast calls
for just slight interior rain chances. The story turns from TS
Cindy to the heat Friday as...with high dew points in the middle
to upper 70s and a partially cloudy day...more sun will have
afternoon ambient temperatures warming into the lower to middle
90s equating to Friday`s heat indices in the 104 to 108 F range.

The weekend synoptic pattern has eastern Texas placed within a
height weakness channel...or between the Bermuda ridge and a
northwestern Mexico-centered ridge. Atmospheric column moisture
will be on the rise this weekend...from around Friday`s 1.8 to 1.9
inch values to over 2 inches Saturday...as steering flow transitions
from the northeast to southeast. An approaching weak frontal
boundary entering our very warm and humid regional environment
Saturday will kick off rounds of weekend precipitation. Precipitation
will be widespread...mainly occurring during the daytime hours
and be focused over the south(west)ern and central third of the
CWA as well as the maritime areas (or the progged location of the
highest moisture/theta e axis). The enhanced lower level focus
provided by this quasi-stationary boundary has weekend QPF forecast
to average around an inch across southeastern Texas. Mainly overcast
with an easterly wind will have diurnal temperatures ranging from
the very mild morning mid to upper 70s to afternoon upper 80s to
lower 90s.

Slightly drier weather is forecast in the extended as the daytime
inland rain focus is modeled to occur along the more localized sea
and bay breezes with overnight maritime rain clusters. Upper
ridging hangs back to the west with a broad longwave trough
positioned over the eastern CONUS. This will place Texas in that
middle ground of not being too subsident for any major
drought/excessive but just unstable enough to expect day to day
mesoscale convective behavior. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      91  76  95  77  91 /  30  10  10  30  50
Houston (IAH)              86  77  92  78  90 /  50  30  20  30  60
Galveston (GLS)            85  82  89  82  87 /  50  20  20  20  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the
     following zones: Brazoria...Chambers...Galveston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Waters from Freeport
     to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters
     from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 PM CDT this
     afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from
     Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...31/47



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