Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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947
FXUS63 KIND 290650
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
250 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, and SHORT TERM sections have been
updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

An upper level low will continue to loiter in the area into
Saturday before finally deciding to exit. This will keep
cool temperatures around along with some showers and
thunderstorms. Drier and warmer conditions will return late
weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Today/
Issued at 250 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

The upper low across central Indiana at the moment will sink south
through the day. While showers will move across the western quarter
of the area before 12Z, after 12Z only isolated showers are expected
across most of the area as much of the rain rotates across locations
outside of central Indiana.

During the afternoon, instability will build a little with some
heating, so expect some scattered convection to develop. In
addition, some energy will begin to approach the area from the north
and east late in the period.

Thus will go mainly slight chance PoPs this morning across the area,
then chance PoPs in the afternoon. Once again, wouldn`t be surprised
to see some small hail in a couple of places this afternoon.

Generally stayed with a model blend for temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Saturday night/
Issued at 250 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Focus remains on chances for rain through the period. Models are
close enough that a blend was used.

Stronger forcing will rotate back into the area from the north and
east tonight, especially after midnight. Thus went chance PoPs
during the evening hours, with PoPs increasing to likely across most
of the area from northeast to southwest during the night.

This same energy will continue the likely PoPs Friday morning, then
PoPs will lower across the eastern forecast area during the
afternoon as forcing rotates off to the west and south.

The upper low will bring in another slug of stronger energy into the
eastern forecast area Friday night into Saturday, so will go likely
PoPs there during the periods as needed. Chance PoPs will be
elsewhere.

Finally the low leaves the area Saturday night, so only slight
chance PoPs were needed northeast.

Stuck with a model blend for temperatures through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

The upper low which will bring us cool and showery weather through
Saturday will move on to the east early next week. An upper ridge
will temporarily build across Indiana Monday and Tuesday before
another system starts to move our way later next week.

Will continue low chances of showers over northeast sections
Saturday night and Sunday.  But the rest of the long term
period will be mostly dry with high pressure in control.  An
approaching frontal system may bring a slight chance of showers
western sections late Wednesday and to all areas by Thursday.

Temperatures will become warmer by the middle of next week with
highs approaching 80 Tuesday and in the lower 80s some areas
Wednesday.   Lows ill be in the 50s most periods...and then
near 60 by the middle of next week.   Generally stayed close to
super blend temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 29/06Z TAFs/...

Issued at 1231 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Conditions will deteriorate to MVFR and periods of IFR conditions
overnight into Thursday.

Upper low will continue to spin over the region through the period
with potential for some showers and widespread cloud cover. There
will be a chance for some thunder mainly during the day on Thursday
and this is covered with prob30.

Winds throughout the period will be 10kt or less, generally with a
significant northerly component.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NIELD



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