Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 201726
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
126 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK...ALLOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN. A WARM FRONT COULD BRING MORE
RAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

CLOUDS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WORKING FARTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THE
SAME CAN BE SAID ABOUT THE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...DO NOT SEE A NEED TO
INTRODUCE ANY POPS.

SOME MODELS TRY TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
WAVE ALOFT PUSHES THROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO OVERDO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THUS INSTABILITY SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...SREF FORECASTS KEEP RAIN
OUT OF THE AREA AS WELL.

THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST TODAY. MODEL TIME SECTIONS
SHOW SOME MOISTURE AROUND 850MB...SO STILL EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

MAV MOS HAS BEEN RUNNING WARM LATELY...AND THE CLOUDS COULD HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT AGAIN TODAY. THUS WENT AHEAD AND CUT
MAV MOS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THEN ON
TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF
MODELS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP
RAIN OUT OF THE AREA. EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE WITH THE SINKING AIR...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE. MAV MOS HAS BEEN RUNNING
WARM SO TRIMMED BACK ITS VALUES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL HAVE TO
WAIT ON THE UPPER RIDGE TO GET OUT OF THE WAY. THUS ONLY WENT LOW
POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OR SO OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

ECMWF AND GFS NOW ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPING NW
FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD...PUSHING A SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. MODELS DEPICT EXCELLENT SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WARMER
AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION. GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO SHOW PERSISTENT WEST TO NW FLOW ALOFT WITH
WEAK...UNORGANIZED SHORT WAVE APPROACHING...THUS HAVE INCLUDED CHC
POPS ON SATURDAY FOR NOW.

STILL NO 90 DEGREE TEMPS IN THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 20/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENING ALOFT. TONIGHT/S TREND WILL BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT/S...MORE MVFR/IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH DEWPOINTS.

&&


.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD

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