Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 281022 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
622 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CLEAR BUT COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH NEARER SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY AND ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST VARIABLE.

WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WEAK TO
NEUTRAL ADVECTION MUCH OF THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CONSENSUS NUMBERS OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT APPEARS
LIKELY TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...AND WILL MAXIMIZE POPS IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

SOME 12Z MODELS BROUGHT A STRANGELY POTENT COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE 00Z
RUNS HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON THIS...AND WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO BE A REASONABLE STARTING
POINT BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS...BUT DID TWEAK TO
INCREASE THE DIURNAL RANGE SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MODELS AGREE THAT THE EXTENDED SHOULD START OFF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...WEAK SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT IT DRY. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF AN EAST COAST HIGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO THE 60S PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. FINALLY...MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME IN TIMING ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WITH THE 00Z GFS AND
CANADIAN MUCH FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. WITH THE FLOW FAST AND
QUASI-ZONAL...DIFFICULTY WITH MODELS AGREEING IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF POPS. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH REGIONAL BLEND PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.

GOING WITH A REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING THEM ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY. WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM...SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT A
THUNDERSTORM MENTION  WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 622 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOULD ONLY SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS ON SUNDAY.

NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SOUTH ON SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE AFTER 15Z SUNDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

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