Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 200439

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1239 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 309 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Upper troughing will continue to keep temperatures a bit
suppressed for the next couple of days before upper ridging
arrives to bring more warmth. This trough will also keep some low
chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for this
afternoon into early tonight for parts of the area and then again
tomorrow afternoon. After that the upper ridging should provide
mainly dry weather until Thursday evening. At that point models
show a more active pattern moving back in, with chances for
showers and thunderstorms through much of the weekend.


.NEAR TERM /This Evening and Tonight/...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Minor adjustments made to pop grids for persistent showers/embedded
thunder that will likely make it into the area before dissipating
later this evening. Previous discussion follows.

Issued at 309 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

High res guidance for the remainder of the afternoon into evening
continues to show scattered showers and storms across the
north/northeast forecast moving eastward with time. Some
disagreement on when this will come to an end, with the HRRR
moving it all out by 0z and then showing a smaller area of showers
moving into the southwestern counties in the 1-5z timeframe
before becoming dry. The RAP and NAM keep some qpf running across
the north/northeast counties until 3z or so. Plan will be to keep
at least a slight chance for showers/storms going 0-3z across the
north/northeastern counties and go dry elsewhere.

After 3z will be going dry for the remainder of the night with
lack of forcing or instability. Should see mostly clear skies to
the southwest under the influence of the surface high.

For low temperatures, went with a bias corrected consensus.


.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Another spoke of upper energy will move through the area late
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The upper wave will move in
from the northwest and could have a weak surface front moving
through as well. With a surface high still to the south/southeast
of the area, will carry some pops in the northern part of the
forecast area but not extend those from there given the more
subsident and stable atmosphere to the southeast.

Wednesday into Wednesday night there is some model disagreement
with PoPs, with the operational NAM much more aggressive with qpf.
MOS guidance is trending drier with the MAV and wetter with the
MET. Given the upper pattern shows upper ridging sliding through
the area Wednesday into Thursday, will stick with the dry PoPs
from the intialization. Given the solution variability though the
dry forecast for Wednesday through Thursday is only low to medium
confidence at best. Higher confidence of a warming trend during
the short term.


.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday/...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Active weather will occur Friday as a cold front moves southeast
across our region.  There will be lots of moisture as a tropical
system moves into the lower Mississippi valley and then northeast
across Tennessee and Kentucky.   Models indicate a cold front
will stall across southern Indiana Saturday and then moving
southeast Sunday and Monday as high pressure over the central
plains builds eastward early next week.

There is lots of uncertainty on rain chances over the weekend as
the Canadian is mostly dry...while the GFS is mostly dry Saturday
and somewhat wet Sunday.  Will carry low chance POPS some areas
over the weekend and then dry all areas Sunday night and Monday
as high pressure over the plains builds our way.

Temperatures will be near normal Friday into Saturday and below
normal early next week.   In most cases stayed close to model
initialized temperatures.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 20/06Z TAFs/...

Issued at 1238 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017

VFR through the period.

Another weak upper level impulse will skirt north of the area on
Tuesday, which may spark a few showers and perhaps a storm or two.
This is far too uncertain for inclusion at this point, and would
be more likely at LAF than the other sites.

Otherwise, some diurnal cloud cover will be possible mainly
tomorrow. Should see only partial cloud cover at any one time.

Winds will generally be west/northwesterly during the period.
Sustained winds will be as high as 8-12KT, and a few gusts to near
20KT cannot be ruled out tomorrow afternoon, but will only be
included at LAF for now.

No significant obstructions to visibility are expected during the





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