Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 130837
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
437 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Aviation section updated

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

High pressure will remain in control across the area through the
start of the work week, with dry and pleasant weather expected.
From Tuesday afternoon onward, precipitation chances will creep
back into the area as a slightly warmer and significantly more
humid airmass works into the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

High pressure will remain the dominant force across central
Indiana today, with pleasant weather expected. Some fair weather
cumulus clouds can be expected, leading to partly cloudy skies in
the afternoon.

Consensus temperatures appeared reasonable, and have been
performing relatively well as of late.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Models are starting to produce some spotty QPF across mainly
western portions of the area Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night,
and will reluctantly carry some very low pops as a result.
Confidence is low in this as this is a recent trend and may be
the models tendency to overproduce convective precipitation.

Otherwise, dry weather expected through at least early Tuesday
with high pressure in control.

Consensus temperatures continue to appear reasonable and were
generally accepted.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Periodic rain chances will persist through the second half of the
week. ECMWF suggest mainly zonal flow in place...however several
weak short waves are suggested to pass through the region during
this time. Meanwhile the ECMWf suggests weak cyclonic flow in
place across the region along with a lingering frontal boundary.
Thus will keep the low chance pops in place as suggested by the
forecast builder through Friday.

The best organized short wave looks to pass through on Saturday
and Saturday Night...which should bring and end to precip chances
as stronger ridging builds across the region from the west to end
next weekend. However confidence will remain low given these are
days 6 and 7 of the forecast. Given the mainly zonal
flow...seasonable temperatures are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 130900Z IND Taf Update/...

VFR conditions continue across the TAF sites as large High
pressure remains in place to the north of Central Indiana. No
significant changes to the opngoing Taf.

Previous Discussion Below...

(Discussion for the 130600Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1129 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

IFR conditions expected in fog at some sites late tonight, otherwise
VFR.

Weakening winds through the boundary layer and mostly clear skies
will lead to some fog development overnight. KIND may escape fog due
to heat island effects, but at least MVFR fog should form elsewhere.
Looks like KLAF has the best odds of seeing IFR fog with the site
being closest to the surface high. All fog will burn off quickly
after sunrise.

A few cumulus will develop Sunday.

Due to the finicky nature of radiation fog development at the sites,
confidence is medium at best in fog extent and timing.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Nield
NEAR TERM...Nield
SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...50/JP



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