Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 281641
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1141 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA BY MONDAY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE
AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

SATELLITE INDICATE LOTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEAST PARTS OF OUR REGION.  MODELS SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
BREAKS MAY OCCUR ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE.  OVERALL
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FAR WEST
LATE TODAY.  HIGHS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 20S NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 304 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST DURING THIS PERIOD IS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THE
SURFACE REFLECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE DOESN/T LOOK TOO
IMPRESSIVE...BUT MODELS SUGGEST A SUSTAINED 35-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET
ACROSS THE AREA FROM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING...INDICATING A
RATHER LONG DURATION PRECIPITATION EVENT. WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS ALL
AREAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH POPS TAPERING OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE THERMAL PROFILES
DURING THIS EVENT...BUT SOME OF THE ENSEMBLES ARE STILL WARMER THAN
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. AS A RESULT...THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY
THAT THE WARMER AIR MAY GET FARTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST. AT THIS
TIME...THE MAJORITY OF THE DATA SUGGEST MIXED PRECIPITATION MAY
START WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY...PROBABLY REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE CENTRAL
ZONES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. DUE TO THE EXPECTED LONG DURATION OF
THE EVENT...LOOKS LIKE A HIGH END ADVISORY TYPE SITUATION. THE LACK
OF A GOOD SURFACE FEATURE LENDS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE OF REACHING
WARNING CRITERIA OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA AT THIS TIME. PLANNING ON A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS STARTING THIS EVENING AND
LASTING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. MODEL QPF AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS
FLOWING INTO THE SYSTEM SUGGEST 4-6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LOWER
AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH AS PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE MIXED WITH TIME.
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVE THROUGH...BEFORE LIFT/PRECIPITATION THREAT MOVES BACK INTO THE
AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM DOESN/T LOOK TOO BAD...SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENT PLANNED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A BROAD MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW PERSISTS DOWNSTREAM OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IMPACTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION
ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MODEL CONSENSUS CAPTURING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE WAVE
TRACK INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY NIGHT WELL. DIFFERENCES
HOWEVER EXIST WITH RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE
OP GFS AND BULK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OFFERING A MUCH STRONGER
FEATURE THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS. APPEARS A STRONGER INTERACTION WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY BE PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
DEEPER SURFACE WAVE. THESE DIFFERENCES NOT LIKELY TO BE IRONED OUT
FOR ANOTHER 24-48 HOURS BUT THE BIG PICTURE REMAINS THE SAME AS A
SLOPPY WINTRY MIX EARLY TUESDAY GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO RAIN FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BEFORE COLDER AIR CHANGES PRECIP BACK
TOWARDS SNOW DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THERMAL PROFILES ARE STRONGLY SUGGESTIVE THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE TUESDAY MORNING AS RAW SURFACE TEMPS ON BULK OF
THE 00Z MODELS REMAIN SUBFREEZING WHILE WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE EXPECTED SNOWPACK WILL BE A FACTOR
IN NEAR SURFACE WARMING AND AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED...MAY HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL SNOW TONIGHT/SUNDAY GETS DOWN BEFORE THE MODELS
ACCURATELY SAMPLE IMPACTS. THE ICING POTENTIAL LOOKS TO MAKE AN
ABSOLUTE MESS FOR TUESDAY MORNING WITH SURFACE TEMPS WARMING ABOVE
FREEZING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

STILL FEEL THE HEAVY RAIN OVER FROZEN GROUND AND SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ON THE GROUND PRESENT A GROWING AND INCREASINGLY SIGNIFICANT
FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAIN
EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH AND NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX FOR EARLY MARCH
BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.50 INCHES BY TUESDAY EVENING AS A STRONG 65-75KT
850MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. STILL APPEARS 1-2 INCHES OF
RAIN WILL FALL TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE
FRONT GRADUALLY SAGS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. IN ADDITION...FEEL
COMFORTABLE IN INTRODUCING AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BRING
PERIODIC HIGHER RAINFALL RATES AND ONLY EXACERBATE THE FLOODING
CONCERNS. STAY TUNED.

SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING AS COLDER AIR SPREADS SOUTH. MUCH
COLDER AND DRIER AIR THEN RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO IFR/LIFR AROUND 00Z. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.

VFR DECK WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...SNOW WILL QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AROUND 00Z LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR. AS SNOW
INCREASES LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ALL AREAS.

HOWEVER FOR THE MOMENT HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF LIFR IS AT KIND/HUF SO
ADDED A TEMPO GROUP THERE. NOTE THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LIFR MAY
EXTEND PAST THE TIME INDICATED IN THE TEMPO GROUP.

MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER SURGE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY SO KEPT IFR GOING
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD SUNDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
REMAIN LESS THAN 10KT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RAIN MAY MIX IN AT KBMG SUNDAY BUT FEEL ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN TAF AT THIS POINT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...50

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