Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KIND 240214

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1014 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 306 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

High pressure moving off to the east will give way to a more
active weather pattern for the next few days. Thunderstorm chances
will remain in the area from late tonight through early Friday
morning. An eastward shift and suppression of the upper ridge will
allow for a return of thunderstorm chances on upper waves Saturday
through Tuesday.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 921 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Remnant vorticity center tied to earlier convection over Missouri is
currently moving through southwest Illinois. This feature is expected to
move through the area later tonight. Potential for some convection associated
with this feature later tonight as warm advection increases, but short term
model data not too bullish with this potential. Appears the better forcing
will remain off to the west through sunrise Wednesday, closer to the low level
jet. Previous forecast has some PoPs after 240600Z, and this still looks OK
at this time. No updates planned.

Previous discussion follows.

Isentropic lift will increase later tonight as a warm front
approaches from the southwest. This will bring increasing clouds
and higher dew points to the area. Chances for thunderstorms will
arrive late tonight first in the west and overspreading most of
the area by morning, with the highest chances in the northwest
where upper forcing will help as well.


.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Friday/...

Issued at 306 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Forecast focus is on thunderstorm chances. Models are in pretty
good agreement and will generally use a blend. Low level jet will
come into play Wednesday through Thursday and will enhance forcing
enough that when combined with the instability could help produce
strong to isolated severe storms. The cold front will move through
late Thursday afternoon into the evening and this will usher in
cooler temperatures and bring an end to the precip chances for
most of the area Friday morning. Temperatures will climb to the
mid 80s on Wednesday and the upper 80s to around 90 on Thursday
ahead of the front. Lows will run in the upper 60s to lower 70s.


.LONG TERM (Friday night through Tuesday)...

Issued at 140 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

The blended forecast from the Regional initialization can be used
with moderate to high confidence.

The deterministic fields from various models correspond well.
However they all project a complex situation. We can be confident
about what to expect overall,but it`s too early to be sure of

Tempertures from today`s forecast could be off by 3 degrees or so.
There will be a chance of rain almost daily in this package. Later
this week it should be possible to distinguish dry or wet 12 hour
intervals in the forecast period.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 240300Z TAF Update/...
Issued at 1014 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Only minor adjustments needed to ceilings as mid level clouds
overspread the region this evening.

00Z discussion follows.

MVFR conditions possible Wednesday morning and in scattered
convection throughout the day...otherwise VFR expected.

Mid level cloud shield steadily expanding into central
Indiana early this evening ahead of a warm front. Clouds will
overspread the region overnight with ceilings steadily dropping to
3500-4000ft late tonight as the warm front moves into the area.
Most recent hi-res guidance now keeping bulk of the rain showers
west of the terminals until just prior to daybreak Wednesday and
with limited forcing present this seems reasonable. Light
southeast winds are expected tonight.

Better chances for showers Wednesday morning as the warm front
slides through the area. Have introduced tempos for showers and
MVFR conditions during the morning hours and while a few rumbles
of thunder are not out of the question...overall instability is
low. Thunder chances will increase for the afternoon as the
terminals move into the warm sector with scattered convection
developing. Southwest winds will increase above 10kts with some
gusts to near 20kts during the afternoon as well.


.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.



AVIATION...RYAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.