Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 190258
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
958 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE REGION.

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMALS.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE GREAT PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

0250Z UPDATE...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. FLURRIES ARE
WANING/EXITING THE AREA BUT LEFT IN MENTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. OTHER THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO CURRENT TEMP/DEW POINT AND SKY
COVER TRENDS DID NOT NEED TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS INDIANA INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. RADAR SHOWS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA...QUICKLY MOVING TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBS FAIL TO
SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND.

MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AS SEEN ON THE 290K SURFACE WANES THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT QUICKLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTIFUL CLOUDS UPSTREAM AND THE
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS RATHER DIRTY AS MINIMAL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
ONGOING. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS AT
OR BELOW MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 217 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS SUGGEST THE
TROUGH ALOFT FLATTENS OUT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL WEAK AND UNORGANIZED SHORT WAVE ALOFT
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM REACHING THE AREA AND AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS SLOWLY TO THE EAST SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND DYNAMICS APPEAR
RATHER LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM AMID THE DIRTY HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUING TO SHOW TRAPPED LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST INTO
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH STEADY STATE TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION...WILL TREND HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE 3 HOURLY TEMPS
AS HEATING WILL BE LIMITED.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AS TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO KEEP PLENTIFUL TRAPPED
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. ADDING TO THE CHANCE FOR CLOUD COVER WILL BE
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AS SOME HIGH MOISTURE
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AGAIN...WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. GIVEN SOME CLOUDS AND STEADY TEMP ADVECTION
WILL TREND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE AND TREND HIGHS
ON SATURDAY NEAR THE 3 HOURLY VALUES.

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AMID THE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE FOUND WELL TO THE EAST...ALLOWING A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
HIGH SATURATION THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY
CLOUDY TREND ALONG WARMER LOWS THAN MAV COOLER HIGHS THAN MEX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 232 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS A CUT-OFF LOW TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...SETTLING OVER THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY...PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
FINALLY ALL SNOW BY WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 190300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 922 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

CEILINGS CONTINUE TO BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR SO WENT WITH A
TEMPO GROUP AT KIND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS INDICATING THE
VARIABILITY WITH THE UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SITES WILL START OUT WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS BUT COULD BOUNCE
BETWEEN THAT AND VFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR
TRIES TO WORK INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE BUT THE INVERSION FROM THE HIGH CONTINUES TO TRAP THE
LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL PROBABLY SEE DECKS SCATTER
HIGHER DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS EXPECT AT
LEAST A SCATTERED LOWER LEVEL DECK TO FORM AGAIN DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY BUT STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER COVERAGE WILL GO TO BROKEN SO
WILL JUST INCLUDE SCT FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 5 KTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...SMF/PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD/JP
AVIATION...CP

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