Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 150441

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1140 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017


The AVIATION section has been updated below.


Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017

High pressure will depart to the east overnight as a low pressure
system moves into and through the Great Lakes region, dragging a
cold front through the area on Wednesday. This will bring showers
to the area for Wednesday. High pressure will again return,
bringing a dry period for the latter portion of the work week,
before another somewhat stronger system and front move through the
area Friday afternoon into Saturday evening, bringing additional
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to the area. The remainder
of the forecast period will be dry as broad high pressure pushes
into the southeastern US.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight and Wednesday/...
Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017

Much of tonight will be dry under the continued influence of the
departing surface high. However, will have to carry some low
chances in the far west very late tonight as the cold front begins
to approach. SREF thunder probabilities suggest thunder is an
extremely low threat, and will thus carry only showers late
tonight and through the day on Wednesday. Rain chances will likely
be done by 00Z Thursday as the cold front departs.

Consensus temperatures appeared slightly too warm with widespread
showers expected during at least a significant portion of the day
Wednesday, and bumped these down a bit nearer surface wetbulb
temperature progs.


.SHORT TERM /Wednesday Night through Thursday Night/...
Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017

Wednesday night into Thursday night will be dry and cool in the
wake of the cold front as a narrow area of surface high pressure
traverses the area. Consensus temperatures suggest lows around
freezing and highs Thursday only into the low to mid 40s, well
below normal for the time of year, and see little reason to depart
from this.


.LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017

The long term period will include the next chance for widespread
precipitation across the area, as a somewhat stronger frontal
system moves into the area Friday afternoon into Saturday evening.
Differences in model timing of the cold front will be of vital
importance to the potential for thunder, and any potential for
isolated severe weather. Dynamics accompanying the system are
relatively robust, including a 50KT low level jet, and models
depict a bit better low level moisture advection, including a
narrow prefrontal zone of dewpoints well into the 50s. Any
possible severe weather may take the form of a narrow frontal band
of showers and isolated storms with sporadic marginally severe
wind gusts mixing down, but this again will depend heavily on
frontal timing, which remains uncertain.

The remainder of the long term will be dry as broad high pressure
drops into the southeast US in the wake of the front.

Temperatures during the period will be nearer seasonal normals on
Friday and Saturday, only to again turn well below normal late in
the weekend into early next week as reinforcing cold air arrives
in the wake of the front. Highs on Sunday may be no warmer than
the 30s.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 15/06Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1140 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017

Good confidence that VFR conditions will continue through at least
12z Then, expect showers to roll in 12z-15z from northwest to
southeast. As the showers overspread the area ahead of an
approaching cold front, there is a good bet that flying conditions
will deteriorate to MVFR and IFR 15z-18z with strong support from
the SREF and GFS LAMP.

Conditions should improve to MVFR and then VFR after 23z in the wake
of the showers and cold front.

Southeast winds 5 knots or less will then veer to the south,
southwest and finally west after daybreak. Wind speeds will increase
to around 10 knots after 15z with gusts to near 20 knots possible.





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