Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 242011
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
410 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK
AS OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES CLOSEST TO UPPER RIDGE
AXIS. POTENTIAL LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND
ESPECIALLY FARTHER WEST...SO WILL HOLD ONTO SOME SMALL CHANCES POPS
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS ON MONDAY AS A RATHER SHARP UPPER WAVE...CURRENTLY
OVER TEXAS...EJECTS NORTH NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 45-55 KTS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FEATURE LATE TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME DECENT LIFT. APPEARS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES AND FARTHER WEST...SO WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS IN
THOSE AREAS WITH POPS TAPERING OFF FARTHER EAST.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT MAY
BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER WAVE...AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET...THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. AS WAVE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST BY
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MAY TEND TO DIMINISH AT THAT
TIME.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS SUGGEST PERIODIC WAVES WILL EJECT ACROSS THE AREA OUT OF A
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THE MODELS SEEM TO BE
KEYING IN ON TUESDAY FOR THE BEST CHANCES. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS
GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...DON/T HAVE ANY MAJOR ISSUES
WITH THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN THE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TWO WEATHER PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA DURING THIS PERIOD. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...A WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...ALONG WITH SOME
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT. MINIMAL SUPPORT APPEARS AVAILABLE ALOFT.
HOWEVER SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO INSIST ON POPS GIVEN THE WARM AIR
MASS. ALTHOUGH A CONVECTIVE DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL USE LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT SAGGING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY PROVIDING AN IDEAL SET UP FOR LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
WITH AND OVERRUNNING TYPE SET-UP IN THE LOWER LEVEL. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD HIGHER POP AT THAT TIME...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 242100Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ADDED WIND GUSTS OF 18-22 KTS THROUGH 1Z BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND
WIND DIRECTION WILL RANGE 170-190 DURING THAT TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 12-15 HOURS.
DETERIORATION TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 12Z MONDAY.

THE TAFS WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM AND MOIST SECTOR OVERNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES NE TOWARD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. A STRONG LLJ NEAR 45 KNTS AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO INDIANA OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHRA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION NEAR 12Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SHORT WAVE.

BY 18Z MONDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS AS FORCING AND DYNAMICS DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG
WITH CCL/S NEAR 2500FT...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/CP

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