Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 162251

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
551 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 320 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

Unseasonably warm weather will be the rule for the next week as a
large upper level ridge dominates the region. There will be low
chances for rain across the far south on Saturday afternoon and
evening as a weak upper wave drifts through the Tennessee Valley,
otherwise the next chance for precipitation will come next Tuesday
onward as a weak frontal boundary sags into the area.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 320 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

Another quiet night can be expected as surface high pressure
remains in place over the region. Partly cloudy skies will be
likely, particularly during the first part of the night as some
mid and high cloud passes.

Low level warm advection will start ramping up overnight and along
with the aforementioned cloud cover will keep temperatures from
dropping too significantly. Consensus numbers were generally in
the ballpark save for minor tweaks.


.SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/...
Issued at 320 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

The only chance for precipitation in the short term will come
Saturday afternoon and evening as a weak upper wave moves through
the Tennessee Valley. While some guidance does now show light QPF
across the far south, others keep all precipitation well south of
the area. Will hold onto 20/30 pops across the far south of the
area in collaboration with neighbors, but the more significant
impact of the wave will likely be keeping temps down a bit across
the south Saturday with enhanced cloud cover.

Consensus numbers were generally in the ballpark with minor
adjustments. We`re likely to get near or exceed the 60 degree
mark much of the area each day through the weekend.

The record for consecutive 60 plus degree days at Indianapolis
before March 1st is 7, and while it will be very close at times,
that record may be in jeopardy over the next week.


.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Wednesday Night/...
Issued at 238 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

The extended period will start out with a large ridge of high
pressure aloft and at the surface. As a result, dry conditions
will prevail from Sunday night through Monday night. Meanwhile,
temperatures will soar near record numbers with highs topping off
in the mid to upper 60s. The best chances for any rain will be on
Tuesday and Wednesday when two different systems affect Central
Indiana. The first will be traversing the Great Lakes Region on
Tuesday morning, triggering some light rain showers over northern
counties. After that, chances will increase from the southwest on
Tuesday night as a low pressure system tracks through the Gulf.
For now, will not deviate from latest Superblend initialization.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 170000z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 551 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

VFR through the period with an upper ridge of high pressure
building toward central Indiana. Winds should be around 4-8 kts
overnight with a southerly component. Low level wind shear with
southwesterly winds around 40 kts at 2000 ft will overspread the
sites starting 2-5z and then moving out around 9-10z. The only
clouds expected through the period will be some cirrus, and dry
air should preclude any fog development. Winds will shift to
southwesterly Friday morning and increase to around 8-13 kts.




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