Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
FXUS63 KMPX 261637

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1137 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Issued at 1137 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Going forecast looks to be pretty much on track today. Cold front
at 11am was just clearing FRM/LJF/LXL and is expected to reach the
I-35 corridor at around 5pm. Most of the CAMS show a narrow line
of thunderstorms developing between 1pm and 2pm up around Mille
Lacs Lake that will work east into NW WI before dissipating with
the setting sun. SBCAPE is progged to build to near 1000 j/kg,
with bulk shear on the order of 30kts. Not expecting any
organized or widespread severe weather, but an angrier cell or
two capable of producing some small hail or brief wind gusts can`t
be ruled out. Greatest coverage of storms is expected north of
I-94 as elongated short wave current positioned from northeast SD
to Lake of the Woods will swing northeast into the Arrowhead,
providing some meager upper forcing for better storm coverage
across the northern half of MN.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

A rather quiet morning across the country with only some mid level
clouds streaming overhead locally. The biggest story today will be
the passage of a front this afternoon, bringing mainly a wind
shift but possibly a few storms along and east of I-35.
Instability is pretty meager, however, and models generally aren`t
too excited to break out convection other than the GFS. Some
pockets of greater instability ahead of the front may be the focus
for thunderstorm development, and think coverage should be
isolated-scattered in nature. With a fair amount of sun expected,
we should take full advantage of the encroaching thermal ridge
ahead of the front and reach the upper 70s across southern and
eastern MN.

West winds and a drier airmass will move in tonight. Clear skies
and seasonable temperatures are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

The extended forecast looks cool, cloudy, with several chances for
rain, but little in the way of rainfall amounts. On the bright side,
not expecting all day rainfall at any time during the period.
Afternoon high temperatures will be around 5 to 10 degrees below the
seasonal average for most of next week. Needless to day the rest of
the month is sure to disappoint if you like warm temperatures, lots
of sun, or strong thunderstorms.

There`s not much to say about the extended period. An upper level
trough over central Canada will send a series of shortwaves embedded
in northwest flow across the Upper Midwest. This will lead to cooler
air with limited moisture content. However, the boundary layer
moisture will be sufficient to produce a blanket of overcast skies
during the afternoon for Sunday and Monday. Couple this with some
weak forcing for a ascent and that explains the light QPF being
painted across the region by the models. Forecast soundings show a
thin layer of CAPE, so could see a few areas of deep convection with
a cool rain shower and perhaps some pea-size hail mixed in with a
few stronger cores.

Looking ahead into the middle of next week, there are stark
differences between the models with some guidance showing warmer
southwest flow while others prolong the current weather pattern. Did
not make any changes to the blended guidance, but at this time it
seems like the cooler solution should prevail since there is not a
strong signal that indicates the pattern will shift.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period, although sct-bkn
mid level clouds will persist across eastern MN/western WI until
this evening. A front will push through today with a risk of a
few weak storms along and east of I-35 during the afternoon and
early evening.

KMSP...VFR conditions expected. Winds will veer from south to west
as the front passes. If storms form today, best chance would be
between 21-00Z.




AVIATION...BORGHOFF is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.