988
FXUS63 KMPX 252032
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
332 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flash Flood Watch for much of central and southern Minnesota, and
western Wisconsin until Thursday morning.

- Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms across mainly
southern Minnesota this evening.

- Widespread rainfall continues this afternoon with and additional
1" to 3" expected. Locally higher amounts possible which could lead
to localized flash flooding.

- Hot and humid this weekend with more storms possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Heavy rainfall has spread across much of Minnesota and Wisconsin
since earlier this morning and is expected to continue into the
evening. Our first round of heavy precipitation was result of
an h850 wave that continues to move NE across central MN. This
wave as well as high pressure located over the TN Valley has
aided in providing the northern plains unseasonably high
moisture values. PWATs have ranged around 2" this afternoon
which indicates a tropical-like atmosphere. As for current rain
totals so far, interpolated rainfall totals range between 1 to 3
inches with a few locally higher amounts across western
Minnesota.

Across south-central Minnesota, a warm front continues to push its
way northward. Dew Points in the latest METARs especially along the
I-90 corridor will continue to creep into the into the upper 60s and
lower 70s. This along with some differential heating mixing in,
moderate instability ~1500 J/kg and adequate low-level shear
will aid support for convective initiation to where a few cells
could produce tornadoes. Thus, a Tornado Watch is in effect
until 10 PM tonight across southern MN and portions of western
WI.

Another round of heavy rainfall sets up Thursday morning where flash
flooding again could potentially be an issue. Especially if heavy
rain falls over areas that had seen rainfall from today. Although
the QPF maxima is more focused over eastern MN and western WI.
Regardless, most areas could expected to see an additional 1 to
3 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts possible. It
is expected that most of the rainfall tapers off from west to
east by Thursday evening. Come Friday into the weekend,
temperatures will make a run back towards the upper 80s and low
90s. Heat indices could even reach near 100 degrees across
western MN on Saturday. Our eyes will move towards our next
anticipated disturbance to track down from the NW over the
weekend. With the added heat, and instability, severe weather
continues to become increasingly likely. Still to soon to
determine specific impacts but one should make weekend plans
accordingly for the potential of stronger storms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

The heaviest band of rain has lifted northward of all of our
terminals early this afternoon. Still, most sites are MVFR/IFR
which will continue through the period. Additional rain is
expected this afternoon with a few thunderstorms possible for
KMKT/KMSP/KEAU. IFR/LIFR conditions are possible with the
heaviest showers and storms. There will likely be a brief break
in the precip overnight before another round arrives early
Thursday morning. Cigs will remain IFR overnight and through
much of tomorrow morning.

KMSP...Thunderstorm chances are highest to the south of the
terminal due to the placement of the warm front, but a few
storms are still possible late this afternoon. Have opted to
change the TEMPO to PROB30. Otherwise, mainly IFR conditions
through the period with easterly winds becoming northeast
tomorrow morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts.
SAT...VFR. Chc TSRA/MVFR late. Wind S 5-10 kts.
SUN...MVFR/RA likely, chc TSRA/IFR. Wind W to NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Anoka-Benton-Blue
     Earth-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-
     Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kandiyohi-Le Sueur-McLeod-Meeker-
     Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-
     Stearns-Steele-Swift-Waseca-Washington-Wright.
WI...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-
     Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...Dye