Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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769
FXUS63 KMPX 132100
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
300 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THIS AFTERNOON...ALL ATTENTION IS ON A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ADVANCING
EAST THROUGH MONTANA.  THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE ON SOUTHEAST
TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DECENT
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT FOCUSED SNOW EVENT...WHICH WILL MAINLY IMPACT
THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED BY THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN MN...AND IOWA.  NOT A
LOT OF CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD AS
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT
OVERNIGHT STILL LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

THE HI-RES CAMS CAME IN SUPPORT OF THE ADVISORY AREA...AND CUTTING
BACK SOMEWHAT ON THE QPF IN EASTERN MN THROUGH WESTERN WI.  THE
STRONGEST FORCING STILL LOOKS BEST ACROSS WESTERN MN THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL.  THE ADIABATIC OMEGA ON THE 285K SURFACE REFLECTS THIS AREA
WELL...BROAD LIFT THROUGH THAT AREA WITH WEAKER LIFT TO THE NORTH
AND EAST INCLUDING THE METRO.  IN TERMS OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...NOTHING TOO IMPRESSIVE HERE BUT THE SUPPORT THAT IS THERE
IS CENTERED OVER THAT SAME AREA FROM EASTERN SD THROUGH WESTERN AND
FAR SOUTHERN MN...THROUGH IOWA. IN TERMS OF TIMING...SLOWED THINGS
DOWN AN HOUR OR TWO...AS THE CAMS INDICATE THE PRECIP CROSSING INTO
WESTERN MN AFTER 00Z.  ONE CONCERN WE DO HAVE WITH THE CAMS IS THE
ARW AND NAMNEST REALLY SHUT OFF THE SNOW TOMORROW MID MORNING ACROSS
THE AREA.  WITH THE SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL FEATURE PUSHING
THROUGH...STILL EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO BE FALLING FOR THIS MORNING
PERIOD.  OVERALL...QPF IN THE WEST AND SOUTH LOOKED REMAINED MOSTLY
CONSISTENT...WHILE WE DID TRIM THE AMOUNTS IN THE EAST.

THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WHILE THIS SNOW IS
FALLING SO VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED...SIGNIFICANTLY AT
TIMES...PRIMARILY IN THE ADVISORY AREA.  WIND SPEEDS OF 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN MODERATE SNOW WILL CAUSE DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

LIGHT SNOW WILL END SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI
AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA PUSHES EAST. ANY ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.

THE THEME FOR NEXT WEEK IS WARMER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ONE DIP IN THE ROAD AND
THAT IS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR WILL GIVE THE LOCAL AREA A GLANCING BLOW. PRIOR TO
THIS...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
DAKOTAS TO IOWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY IS
MUCH BETTER WITH THIS FEATURE OVER WHAT WE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY.
ALL SOLUTIONS NOW KEEP THE BULK OF THIS SYSTEM TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE FA.

A MUCH WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ENVELOP THE AREA FROM THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY.

HIGHS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR THE FREEZING MARK...FALL
TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S FOR WEDNESDAY...THEN REBOUND INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE FAR
WESTERN MN SEES THE MVFR CIGS AND -SN DEVELOPING AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT. HI-RES CAMS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WHAT THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING SINCE YESTERDAY...THE HEAVIEST QPF SWATH
FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD IOWA...CLIPPING FAR WESTERN MN.
EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO SEE MAINLY MVFR TYPE CIGS/VIS OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. RWF LIKELY TO SEE MORE SUSTAINED IFR AND SOME
LIFR POSSIBLE WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE THERE.

KMSP...THE METRO LOOKS TO BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD...BUT STILL THINKING 1-3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. HEAVIEST SNOW
LIKELY AFTER 08Z...WEAKENING AFTER 12Z. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN NIGHT...MVFR WITH CHC -SN. WIND SSE 15 KT.
MON...MVFR/VFR CIGS. WIND W 10 KT.
TUE...MVFR/VFR WITH -SN POSSIBLE. WIND NW 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR MNZ047-054>057-064-065-067-073>076-082>085-
     091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...SPD



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