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000
FXUS63 KMPX 240952
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
352 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN/SNOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE EXITING EASTERN MN.
THIS GENERATED SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND WAS ABLE TO CONTINUE
THE LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN.  THIS MAY MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST DURING THE MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND SPREADS MORE CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE CWA.  EARLIER THE
HRRR WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH GENERATING LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS THIS WAVE MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN MN.  THE 06Z
NAM HAS ONCE AGAIN LIFTED THIS FARTHER TO THE NORTH MAINLY NORTH OF
THE AREA.  WILL HOLD ONTO SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING INTO THE
NORTH AND WEST CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY.  WARM START TO THE DAY...AND ANY SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
BUMP TEMPERATURE ABOVE GUIDANCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT NOT AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY...AS MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST DEEPENS A BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE CANADIAN TROUGH.  THIS WILL PUSH THE SNOW
BAND A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST.  BEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 2-3 INCHES
APPEARS TO BE FROM AXN-MOX SOUTHEAST TO MKT AND AEL IN SC MN. THERE
MAY BE A RAIN SNOW MIX TO THE SOUTHWEST...AS WARMER AIR RESIDES.  IT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS UPPER TROUGH BRINGS
STRONGER FORCING AND COOLING TO THE AREA.  WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW
OVER THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE CLIPPER WILL BE PUSHING AWAY FROM THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW QUICKLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS SRN MN.
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR
FALLING BY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD AT 00Z
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND WAA ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO RISE 10
TO 15 DEGREES BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WARM FRONT WILL NEARLY STALL AT THE MN/WI BORDER MONDAY WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ARROWHEAD. A BATCH OF SNOW MAY
ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN MN LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND OVER WI MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG WAA. A PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL MATERIALIZE MONDAY AFTERNOON
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS ENCOMPASSES MOST OF
THE MN COUNTIES...WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW TO THE EAST OVER WI. HIGHS
COULD APPROACH 45 OR 50 NEAR THE SODAK BORDER WHILE REMAINING IN
THE UPPER 20S EAST OF U.S. HWY 53.

ANOTHER HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...KNOCKING TEMPS DOWN A BIT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
HOWEVER...AND EVEN STRONGER SURGE OF WARM AIR IS STILL ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY PER THE MORE CONSISTENT EC SOLUTION. THICKNESSES IN
EXCESS OF 550 DM AND 925 MB TEMPS OF AT LEAST +5C OVER SRN MN
COULD BRING HIGHS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF
SNOW COVER IN PLACE...BUT WITH THE EXPECTED WARMTH FROM EARLIER IN
THE WEEK THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH LEFT IN THESE LOCATIONS. OTHER
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT WITH THE RIDGING...SO MAINTAINED A
SIMILAR FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES FOR NOW WITH THE THOUGHT
IF THE EC DOES VERIFY...WE ARE SEVERAL DEGREES TOO COOL.

A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT IS SET TO TAKE PLACE LATE NEXT WEEK AND
ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND. A COUPLE COLD FRONTS WILL BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...EACH ONE BRINGING PROGRESSIVELY COLDER
AIR. THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE POSITIONED OVER HUDSON
BAY...AND LOBES OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ROTATE AROUND IT. BOTTOM LINE
IS WE MAY SEE HIGHS RETURN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEASTERN
MN AND WESTERN WI...HOWEVER...KEAU/KRNH REALLY SHOULD BE THE ONLY
TWO TAF SITES AFFECTED BY THESE CLOUDS AND EVEN THESE SITES SHOULD
SEE A LOT OF VFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKS LIKE VFR
TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE SNOW TO FOLLOW. THE SNOW TRACK HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH MEANS MOST OF THE TAFS SHOULD GET LIFR
VISIBILITY WITH SNOW THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST IFR CONDITIONS.

KMSP...
WE STILL DON`T EXPECT ANY AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS UNTIL THE SNOW
MOVES IN THIS EVENING. STILL LOOKS LIKE 1-3" INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF MN. IF THE SYSTEM SHIFTS ANY MORE SW THAN KMSP WILL LIKELY
BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE 1-3"...BUT AS IT STANDS NOW A COUPLE
INCHES IS A REASONABLE APPROXIMATION.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUNDAY...MVFR WITH -SN/IFR POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. WIND NW 10G20
KTS.
MONDAY...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...CLF