National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KMPX 060942
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
342 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WAS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA...WITH A STOUT RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL ALASKA...AND A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A POWERFUL WINTER STORM WAS
TAKING SHAPE DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
US...WHERE WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ARCTIC
FRONT THAT MARCHED THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT LIES THE BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 25 DEGREES BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY DECEMBER. ASIDE FROM THE OCCASIONAL
DIAMOND DUST...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 CST FRI DEC 6 2013

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CIRCA 1040 MB STRADDLES THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. AFTER A NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW
RANGE...READINGS WILL BE PRESSED TO MODERATE MUCH ABOVE THE ZERO
DEGREE MARK. WILL SEE WINDS A TAD LIGHTER HOWEVER...SO WIND CHILLS
ON SATURDAY NIGHT ARE LOOKING TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN ADVISORY
CRITERIA /25 BELOW/. CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH WITH RESPECT
TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. EXPECT TO SEE SNOW ENTER SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MN AROUND 06Z
SUNDAY AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 275K-285K SURFACES ENSUES...AND
THEN BECOME WIDESPREAD INTO EAST CENTRAL MN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BE A FLUFFY SNOWFALL...WITH SNOW RATIOS AROUND 20-25
/ENHANCED BY A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER/. THEREFORE THINK WE
COULD SEE A SOLID SWATH OF 1-3 INCHES FROM SOUTH/EAST CENTRAL MN
INTO WEST CENTRAL...DESPITE QPF VALUES IN THE 0.10 TO 0.15 INCH
RANGE. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BRING A BRUSH WITH HIGHS IN THE DOUBLE
DIGITS...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR ON MONDAY YIELDING
A RETURN TO SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS. MONDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH A PAIR OF FAST CLIPPER SYSTEMS COULD
BRING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR QUICK COSMETIC SNOWFALLS ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AS WESTERN CONUS MID LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS TOWARD THE
AREA...AND 850MB TEMPS ATTEMPT TO SURPASS THE ZERO DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

ALL SITES EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS VFR THRU TMRW WITH ARCTIC HIGH
PRES MOVG IN FROM THE NW. FEW/SCT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
1500-2000FT RANGE. THERE IS SOME MODEL INDICATION THAT A MIDLVL
BKN LAYER...IN TEH 3-5 KFT RANGE...MAY DEVELOP MIDDAY BUT AM
THINKING THIS IS AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO ICE CRYSTALS AND NOT A TRUE
CLOUD LAYER SO WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH VFR BUT WILL MONITOR SUCH
A DEVELOPMENT. W TO WNW WINDS THROUGHOUT...WITH SPEEDS IN THE
8-10 KT RANGE.

KMSP...VFR CONDS THROUGH WITH FEW/SCT CLOUDS LINGERING ARND 2 KFT
THROUGHOUT. W TO WNW WINDS ARND 10 KT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. VARIABLE WIND 5 KTS OR LESS.
SAT NIGHT...VFR. S WIND 5 KTS OR LESS.
SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MVFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH -SN LIKELY. IFR
CONDS POSSIBLE. SE WIND 5-10 KTS SHIFTING W.
MON...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY. W WIND 10-20 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ044-045-
     051>053-059>063-066>070-074>078-082>085-091>093.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR MNZ044-045-051>053-059>063-066>070-074>078-082>085-
     091>093.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ041>043-
     047>050-054>058-064-065-073.

WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR WIZ014>016-023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC