Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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095
FXUS63 KMPX 291044
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
544 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

A PESKY UPPER LOW THAT WAS IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE EAST AND SHEAR OUT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN TO THE EAST OF OUR REGION BY SUNRISE. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...FOG HAD FORMED DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST...LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. ANY FOG THIS
MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH
MOISTURE BLW 5K TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN
AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WI. CENTRAL MN SHOULD SEE LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST.

THERE DOES REMAIN CONCERNS WITH FROST FORMING LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL MN/WESTERN WI AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
AND SKIES CLEAR. RECENT WARM TEMPERATURES HAD ALLOWED FOR
AGRICULTURAL CONCERNS IN SOUTHERN MN AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN WI.
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN WI...THERE COULD BE A FROST ADVISORY ISSUED. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CONCERNS WITH ALL OF RAINFALL HOLDING SOUTH OF MN THRU EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH TRACKING JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY DISAGREED UPON THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS WELL AS WITH
RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL
EXPAND...GIVEN THE DRYING INFLUENCE OF A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CANADA. THE ECMWF AND NAM HAVE BEEN THE FARTHEST
NORTH...BUT EVEN THEY TRENDED A TAD SOUTH WITH THE 29.00Z RUN.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS
/GFS AND GEM/...AND TRIMMED THE NORTHERN EDGES OF THE POPS. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP IS NOW CENTERED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN MN.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WE TRANSITION TO A PATTERN
WITH PREVALENT MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. OTHER
THAN A SMALL POTENTIAL FRO A FEW SHOWERS OVER EAST CENTRAL MN AND
WEST CENTRAL WI ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A TROUGH ROTATING OVER THE GREAT LAKES...A
DRY FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN STORE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

THIS PATTERN TRANSITION WILL ALSO MEAN A RETURN TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
MAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE
40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW HRS THIS
MORNING IN FAR SOUTHERN MN WITH CENTRAL MN HAVING AN HR OR TWO
PAST SUNRISE OF LIFR VSBY IN FOG. WC WI WILL ALSO SEE MVFR CIGS
FOR A FEW HRS BEFORE CIGS LIFT AFT 15Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR
CONDS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY WILL BECOME
MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS AFTN BUT REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS.

KMSP...

A FEW HRS OF MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT AFT 15Z WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
VFR CONDS AFT 18Z. LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTN BUT REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS. A MORE NORTHEAST-EAST
WIND IS EXPECTED TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT AFTN...VFR. WIND ENE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND W 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JLT



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