Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 282137
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
337 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORMING OVER NORTH AMERICA THIS
EVENING...WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
US AND A SECOND TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. THIS
NORTHERN FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT...BUT WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE AND MEDIOCRE FORCING...LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL WILL FALL IN OUR CWA DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MN
TONIGHT...LIKELY PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN
CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI.  MOST MODELS SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA DURING MID-LATE
EVENING...PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI BY EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY. A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...WITH A FEW
FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE TWIN CITIES AREA. THE PRECIP WILL END
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH QUIET CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THE SNOW AND WIND EVENT ON
TUESDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE CONSISTENT TODAY ON SPREADING WAA
SNOW ACROSS THE FA MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF AROUND AN INCH IS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE FA BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE MAIN SNOW EVENT IS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY
AS A MID LEVEL WAVE PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN WI. THE
MID LEVEL FORCING IS HIGHLIGHTED BY ALL SOLUTIONS FROM THE MN/IA
BORDER ON NORTHEAST TOWARDS GREEN BAY. THIS IS THE AREA WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES. THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE WPC 57 MEMBER ENSEMBLE AT THE
50TH PERCENTILE. THIS SAME PRODUCT SHOWS AROUND 3 INCHES FOR THE
TWIN CITIES WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM ST CLOUD ON NORTH AND WEST.
HENCE...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAIN FOR THE FA FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATION
OF NEAR 5 INCHES FROM ALBERT LEA TO EAU CLAIRE.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN ON TUESDAY IS NOT THE SNOW BUT THE INCREASE
IN WIND THAT WILL SPREAD DOWN THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY DURING
THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE. SOLUTIONS WERE UNIFIED ON
NEAR 30 KNOT SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING FROM MORRIS THROUGH
REDWOOD FALLS TO FAIRMONT AND ALBERT LEA. THE TOP OF THE MOMENTUM
CHANNEL SHOWS GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS ARE LIKELY AS WELL. THE WIND
AND THE FRESH SNOW ARE A RECIPE FOR A BLIZZARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOMETHING THAT WE WILL BE MONITORING
VERY CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BEYOND TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 5
BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO. AFTER THIS COLD PERIOD...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP THE FOLLOWING WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 CST SAT FEB 28 2015

HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES OUR AREA...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AT ALL
TERMINALS. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS,
ESPECIALLY AT AXN WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT THE
CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO LOWER...AND MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
MOST TERMINALS. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES
OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI...BUT VISIBILITY SHOULD NOT
BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL
TERMINALS SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 15-17 KTS
POSSIBLE. LOWER CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE EVENING...WITH MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT FROM THE LATE EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING
SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF MSP.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW SUNDAY MORNING...AND BECOME WESTERLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR -SN LIKELY LATE. WINDS S AT 10KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR AND SN LIKELY. WINDS S 10KTS BECOMING NW 20G30KTS.
WED...VFR LIKELY. WINDS NW 15G20KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADL
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...ADL



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