Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 180839
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
339 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

The compact low responsible for yesterday`s tornadoes, severe
weather, and heavy rainfall has lifted to the Great Lakes early this
morning. Light to moderate deformation rains continued across much
of the area overnight in its wake. Precipitation will taper off by
noon-time today as temporary mid level ridging builds in between the
aforementioned system and the next in the parade (which was located
near the Four Corner`s region overnight).

High temperatures today will be on the cool side of climatological
normals with relatively low heights and lingering low clouds.
Readings will top out from 50-60 degrees and be accompanied by
northerly winds.

Tonight winds do begin to decrease and skies clear briefly as
surface high pressure over northern Minnesota begins to drift south.
This is expected to allow temperatures to cool into the 30s north of
the I-94 corridor, which will mean frost concerns will heighten.
Given a bit of uncertainty with cloud trends (given clouds will be
moving back in from the west ahead of the next system), and
considering winds look to stay up around 5 knots, the extent of
frost isn`t a slam dunk. Therefore have held off on a frost advisory
until these factors are refined.

We will have rain showers creeping toward south/west central MN
during the early morning hours, but the activity currently looks to
hold off until after daybreak Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

The next storm system will begin to affect the Upper Midwest
Friday with an area of low pressure developing across the plains,
and moving northeast across the Upper Midwest over the weekend.

Overall, models have a good handle for the next storm system. The
main differences is timing of the heavier/steadier precipitation
which looks to hold south of the Iowa/Minnesota border until
Friday evening. Deeper moisture and upper level energy which will
be associated with the upper trough/low moving northeast across
the Upper Midwest late Friday night/Saturday morning. Some minor
differences on the placement of the upper trough/low is noted on
Saturday, but these differences are mainly for the displacement of
the deformation zone in western Minnesota Saturday
afternoon/evening.

Based on current model trends, late Friday night/Saturday
morning, mainly before noon, will be the best time frame of
widespread shower activity and heavier rainfall. Depending upon
where the deformation zone /precipitation/ develops, will
determine temperatures and if Saturday afternoon could be dry for
several hours. There remains enough differences to hold onto 50s
for high temperatures Saturday, but 60s are not out of the
question in south central/southeast Minnesota, and into parts of
west central Wisconsin if the upper low moves further to the west.

Due to the persistent upper trough holding across the eastern half
of the nation, and some indications of the upper low holding
across the Great Lakes region through early next week, continued
cooler than normal temperatures will remain in our region. I
wouldn`t be surprised to not see another 70 degree temperature
until next Tuesday or Wednesday based on the upper level flow and
pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1108 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Surface low will be moving across EAU and will be over northern
Lake Michigan Thursday morning. We`ll see breezy north winds
continue through the night, that will slowly decrease in strength
through the afternoon. Low clouds are starting to expand in the
deformation region to the northwest of the low and they will be
with us through the night. Biggest issue seen with guidance in the
deformation region is visibilities are not as low as what the LAMP
is showing and have improved those to VFR through the night.
HRRR/LAMP cig forecasts have been trending better, though the LAMP
may be a bit slow in clearing the MVFR clouds out tomorrow. Kept
TAFs toward the more pessimistic end of things for now, but
wouldn`t be surprised if cig heights improved faster than what we
have.

KMSP...Should see rain persist through about 10z. Clouds may
improve faster than what we Thursday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA possible late. Wind NE at 10kt
Sat...MVFR/RA with IFR possible. Wind E at 10G20kt
Sun...MVFR early. Wind WNW at 15G25kt

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG



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