Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 251800
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1200 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR DES MOINES WILL ROTATE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
TODAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH OF SORTS EXTENDS TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
A FEW FLURRIES ARE ABOUT THE ONLY CONSEQUENCE OF THE INVERTED
TROUGH. THE BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW IS NOW SINKING SOUTH
INTO SRN MN AND SHOULD BE GONE BY SUNRISE. REDUCED POPS THIS MORNING
AREA WIDE. DRIER AIR SHOULD ROTATE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN WI.
HOWEVER... CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM CLIMBING MUCH...IF AT
ALL TODAY DESPITE THE SUNSHINE.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PUSH OVERHEAD EARLY THIS EVENING.
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...TEMPS COULD DROP QUICKLY INTO THE MID OR
UPPER TEENS BEFORE THE RIDGE PUSHES EAST. ONCE IT DOES SO...
AGGRESSIVE WAA WILL BEGIN BEHIND AN EASTWARD MOVING WARM FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY TO NEAR
40 BY SUNRISE MONDAY ACROSS WRN MN. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT OVER WRN WI AND
FAR ERN MN. AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LONG TERM TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MIDWEEK AT LEAST...THEN HEADED COOLER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR MONDAY SHOULD EXIT EAST INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN EARLY MORNING. SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN ITS
WAKE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MEAGER WITH MOST OF
THE BETTER FORCING HEADED EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WARM SIGNIFICANTLY AS SOME WARMER AIR INTRUDES INTO WESTERN MN.
NO SNOW COVER INDICATED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
MN...ON THE NOHRSC MODELED SNOW ANALYSIS. ANY LIGHT COATING
RECEIVED OVERNIGHT WILL MELT OFF RAPIDLY. THIS SHOULD YIELD
READINGS WELL INTO THE 40S MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST. CLOUDS
AND AND REMAINING THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW WILL TEMPER READINGS A BIT
IN THE FAR EAST. THIS ALL PUSHES EAST OF THE WESTERN WISCONSIN
REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST.

THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE BACKING DOWN SOME FOR BIG WARMING
ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE AREA DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER AND DECREASE
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WARMING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
CHANCE OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE EAST WITH THE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH.

FINALLY...THE COOLING TREND IS STILL INDICATED OVER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DETAILS OF THE EAST COAST NOREASTER AND ITS ASSOCIATED
TROUGH HAVE YET TO BE DETERMINED AND THIS WILL INFLUENCE TIMING OF
MAIN ARCTIC FRONT HERE. THE ECMWF HAS CONTINUED A MORE AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS
SLOWER...MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH
LITTLE SNOW INDICATED BEFORE THEN...WITH NEARLY BARE GROUND
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA...TEMPERATURES MAY
NOT GET QUITE AS COLD AS IF THERE WAS A SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER
OVER THE REGION. THE CFSV2 HAS BEEN INDICATING THIS COLD SHOT FOR
THE LAST WEEK OR SO WITH THE EARLY PART OF FEBRUARY WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST HAS TEMPORARILY PARTED THE
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL WI AND THE TWIN CITIES.
THIS SHOULD LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE FLOW VEERS TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND BRINGS MVFR CEILINGS BACK FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTH. A CONCERN HOWEVER IS THAT THE MVFR CEILINGS
AROUND KDLH TO KCBG APPREAR TO BE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND MAY
ARRIVE BEFORE THIS EVENING AT KRNH AND KMSP. HENCE A LOW
CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST INTO THIS EVENING FOR THESE TWO SITES.
THE WESTERN TAF SITES WILL BE MAINLY MVFR WITH A FEW BREAKS
POSSIBLE. A CLIPPER MOVING BY TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY TO OUR
NORTH WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS OF MN TONIGHT AND
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS KSTC...KMSP....KRNH AND KEAU DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS. KEAU HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY WITH AMOUNTS DROPPING BACK
TO A FEW TENTHS AT KMSP. ONE PROBLEM FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING IS
THE LOSS OF ICE ALOFT FROM KAXN THROUGH KSTC TO THE TWIN CITIES.
NAM BUFKIT PROFILE DATA INDICATES A POTENTIAL FREEZING DRIZZLE
SCENARIO. HENCE...FOR THIS CYCLE...INCLUDED SNOW ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AT ALL OF THE TAFS EXCEPT KRWF.

KMSP...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF VFR CEILINGS CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH MVFR LOCATED AS CLOSE AS KCMG. MAIN CONCERN LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING IS A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. CONFIDENCE HIGHEST IN THE 11Z-14Z TIME FRAME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND LIGHT/VARIABLE.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR. WIND SE 10 KT.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH



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