Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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419
FXUS63 KMPX 221024
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
524 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.updated for 12z aviation discussion below...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

The short term concerns are mainly temperatures the next 24 hours.

Latest satellite showing some high level cirrus still drifting
east associated with the closed circulation over the southern
stream. This will affect mainly the far south cwa early. Then the
northern stream drops some high level clouds into the northern cwa
mainly later this afternoon and tonight as a surface cold front
drops into central MN by Sunday morning. Looks dry through 12z
Sunday with a small PoP continued along the northern periphery of
the area late tonight.

Temperatures will warm through the 60s across the region today.
Should make for a pleasant afternoon. Lows tonight wont drop off
that much as the cold front and some high clouds move later in the
evening/overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

For Sunday, a cold front will settle over central MN into southern
WI. While any precipitation associated with the front is expected
to remain just to the north of the WFO MPX coverage area, this
front will create quite the north-south temperature gradient
across the area. Highs over northern tiers will remain in the
lower-mid 50s with an easterly wind while central to southern
portions will hit the mid 60s to near 70 with a continued
southwest wind.

The front will remain over the area through Monday, acting as a
pathway for a compact area of low pressure developing over the
Rockies. This low will essentially travel due east but will have
little upper air support and meager moisture. Scattered rain
showers Monday and Monday night is all that can be expected out of
this system. The low will likely nudge the front slightly further
north, allowing highs in the 60s to encompass virtually the entire
coverage area.

As the low exits to the Great Lakes Tuesday, it will drag the
front off to the southeast, allowing cooler Canadian high pressure
to drop into the region. This will be the start of a cooling trend
through the rest of the week for the region, with highs ultimately
dropping into the 40s by the end of the work week.

What is less clear is the evolution of several low pressure
systems which are progged to move through the region during the
latter half of the week. The GFS continues to be in disagreement
with the EC along with GEFS progs, thus will still throw forecast
thinking behind the consensus which spells the passage of several
panhandle-type lows across the central state into the Great Lakes
Wednesday through next weekend. The tracks of them have them
progress just to the south of MN and into lower WI, and the fairly
quick progression means periods of light showers, some potentially
as a rain/snow mix rather than just rain, with unimpressive QPF
amounts. Should this scenario come to fruition, there is a good
chance that temperatures will continue to decrease over the next
few model runs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 515 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

VFR with no concerns through the period as an axis of high
pressure pushes south across the TAF sites. Light and variable
winds becoming WSW 6-10 kts this morning. Cold front drops into
the KAXN area around 09z with some mid/high level clouds.

KMSP...VFR with no concerns through the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Sun night...VFR. Wind s at 5 to 9 kts.
Mon...VFR. Breezy with -SHRA possible late. Wind SSE at 17G28kts.
Tue...MVFR. Wind NW at 6-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...DWE



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