Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 102114

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
314 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

The short term concern remains strength and timing of short wave
across the area later tonight/Monday and overall threat of mixed

Water vapor imagery showing rather vigorous short wave moving
through Saskatchewan and extending into eastern Montana. This wave
is still progged to generate lift into the northwest cwa this
evening. Mid level warmer air is working across the eastern
Dakotas and will move into western MN during the evening. There is
some threat of light freezing rain or drizzle into the west
mainly through about midnight, but models continue to trend deeper
moisture east, mainly along and east of I-94 overnight. It appear
if we do lose ice aloft, we could see a period of light freezing
precipitation into central MN toward the Twin Cities through 06z
and the roughly 06z-12z into east to south central MN after that.
At the moment we have some slight chance freezing drizzle

For snow...still looks like a general 1 to 3 inch snow with the
higher accumulations mainly along and northeast of I-94. This
still may shift some if the wave comes in stronger and slower. The
surface low tracks over the Central MN into western WI. Any
deviation in the track of the low farther east will give rise to
better chance for mixed precipitation into east central MN. Will
have to monitor these trends this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Drying treed into Monday giving cooler temperatures through
Wednesday. The next wave arrives later Wednesday lingering into
Thursday. Possibly enough warm air moving in across the Dakotas to
generate some mixed precipitation.

The pattern does continue to appear to be changing some with more
of a Pacific flow moving across the northern tier of the country
into the weekend. This may provide an above normal temperature
trend at least for the first part of the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

MVFR cigs over the eastern portion of the cwa expected to move
little during the afternoon. We may see some erosion to the
northeast and southwest during the afternoon, with KMKT on the
western fringe. Otherwise will mainly MVFR trend to IFR
overnight as area of snow moves east over the eastern areas. Some
threat of fzdz/-fzra over the western taf sites - mainly KAXN
this evening and toward KSTC/KMSP after 06z. Will maintain snow
trend for now. Still looks like accumulations of 1-2 inches over
the eastern RAF sites into Monday morning. Cold front exits to the
south during the morning with at least MVFR cigs remaining and
possible sct shsn. nw winds becoming sly overnight ahead of
clipper and gusty nw with fropa in the wake of the system.

KMSP...MVFR cigs are likely to continue through the period.
Still expect some -sn moving in after 04z with some -fzdz possible
08z-12z or so in lull as precipitation/snow area moves east.
Still MVFR cigs through much of Monday with sct -shsn possible
into the early afternoon. NW wind becoming sly into the evening
and then NW and gusty late Monday morning.

Mon...MFVR with chc IFR/-SHSN early. Wind NW 15G25 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.
Wed...MVFR with -SN. Wind SE at 10 kts.




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