Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 140459
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1159 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

.Updated for 06Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 404 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Biggest change to the short term, was to go with a dry forecast
tonight, with only slight chance PoPs left in central MN for
Thursday afternoon. There is a stationary front stretched out from
near Ortonville off to the NNE up toward Baudette. Through
Thursday, this boundary is forecast to retreat to the northwest
slightly, remaining outside of the MPX area. All forms of guidance
show precipitation associated with this boundary remaining on the
cool side of the boundary, with the warm sided too dry and
capped. The cool side of the boundary is a side the MPX area does
not get into until Thursday night, hence the drying of the
forecast that was done.

For temperatures during the short term, we`ll continue with our
taste of summer. We have see temps today warm into the mid 80s to
lower 90s and with similar 925-850mb temps Thursday, expect
similar results to what we are seeing with temperatures this
afternoon. Going forecast was already near the top end of what we
can expect tomorrow and above any of the blended guidance. Given
the blended guidance has been a bit cool this week with highs,
stuck pretty close to the existing forecast for highs Thursday.
Looks like the best chance for topping 90 tomorrow will come west
of I-35 and south of US-12.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 404 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

The big story for the long term is the significant pattern shift
expected to take hold this weekend as longwave troughs and ridges
switch the side of the continent they are on as the ridge
west/trough east pattern we saw all of August looks to go trough
west/ridge east for the second half of September, which means
plenty more opportunities for summer-like warmth are in our
future.

Starting out in the long term, the first thing we did was continue
to reduce pops through the day Friday as models continue to limit
the amount of QPF they generate in the MPX area. The problem looks
to be the same with what we see in the short term, a warm sector
that is too dry and capped to produce much in the way of precip.
In addition, the upper jet will be up across southern energy, with
short wave energy swinging by to our north as well. It`s not
until the Friday night that the cold front finally start to
advance east out of the Dakotas that our precip chances start to
improve. The dwindling precip chances means increasing sun
potential and with the warm nose still firmly implanted across
southern MN, it could be another day where we make a run at 90 in
southern MN. Didn`t go quite that high, but did go a few degrees
above blended guidance, with highs in the mid/upper 80s outside of
west central through central MN (where the frontal boundary looks
to be hung up).

Eventually, the main upper trough will swing through northwest MN
Saturday night, which will help drive a surface low into
northwest Ontario, with it`s cold front moving across our area. We
still have likely pop along the boundary in western MN Friday
night, but the best forcing for precip looks to come Saturday
night as we see height falls with the wave passing to our
northwest. Through it all, northern MN still looks to take the
brunt of the precip with this system, with our area waiting on
activity that will be more scattered in nature along the cold
front.

We`ll see a brief cool down for Sunday into Monday has high
pressure works across the area, but next week, the trough
west/ridge east pattern looks to reload. We have pops lifting up
from the southwest to northeast Monday into Tuesday as the GFS
shows a strong warm front lift back northeast across the area,
though there is a lot of uncertainty with whether there will be
any precip to begin next work week as the Canadian keeps this
boundary and it`s rain down in Iowa, while the ECMWF has us dry
with h5 heights building as it gets ready to build better than
588dm h5 heights into the area by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

VFR conditions throughout. Could see some fog in central MN and
western WI again but it shouldn`t be as widespread as the past
few days. In addition, thin cirrus should overspread the region
later tonight which should help mitigate the fog development.
Also could see some visibility reduction from smoke in western
Minnesota. Winds will be light and out of the south.


KMSP...
VFR conditions throughout with light southerly winds. Could see
gust near 20 kts Thursday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...VFR. Chc TSRA late. Wind S S 10G20 kts.
Sat...VFR. Chc TSRA/MVFR. Winds SW 10G15 kts.
Sun...MVFR cigs possible. Winds WNW 10G15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JRB



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