Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KMPX 061142
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
642 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND APPROACHING MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS SNUCK INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SEVERAL OF THE CAMS MODELS INDICATE THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SAG SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN
CONCERT WITH THE H85-H7 THICKNESS CONTOURS...AND GENERALLY AFFECT
AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...WITH SPOTTY ACTIVITY TO THE
SOUTH. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY QUITE A BIT OF
LIGHTNING...HAIL PRIMARILY DIME-SIZED OR LESS...AND OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. HAVE ALSO SEEN RAINFALL REPORTS OF AROUND ONE HALF
INCH IN AS LITTLE AS 20 MINUTES...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN PWAT
VALUES ARE RUNNING AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL /1.5+ INCHES/.
MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO WORRY
ABOUT STRATUS CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG. AFTER THIS FIRST SURGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MARCHES ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL
WI THIS MORNING...SHOULD SEE SCOURING OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS
WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MIXING POTENTIAL TO AROUND 875MB CORRELATED WITH TEMPS
CIRCA 23C. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 90 DEGREES
DOWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN ALONG INTERSTATE 90. DUE TO MORE LIMITED
DIURNAL WARMING FARTHER NORTH THIS MORNING PRIOR TO THE FROPA...HAVE
LEANED A TAD MORE TOWARD THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF TEMPS WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S FROM WILLMAR TO THE TWIN CITIES TO EAU CLAIRE...AND LOWER
80S IN THE NORTHWEST NEAR ALEXANDRIA WHERE FRONT WILL ARRIVE SOONER.

THE SECOND ROUND OF /STRONGER/ CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO THE
POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MN TO NEAR EAU
CLAIRE AT 21Z. THEREFORE IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE MPX
CWA WILL ESCAPE AN AFTERNOON/EVE ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF POINTS ALONG AND EAST OF A FAIRMONT TO RED WING AND
LADYSMITH LINE...WITH EAU CLAIRE APPEARING TO BE THE LOCALE MOST AT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN OUR AREA. SAID THREAT WOULD BE IN THE
WINDOW OF TIME GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 PM AND 7 PM...WITH
HAIL...WINDS...AND TORNADOES APPEARING POSSIBLE.

STORMS AND CLOUDS QUICKLY SCATTER OUT THIS EVE AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS DIMINISH...TO BRING A FAIRLY TRANQUIL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING WILL HAVE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER
AIR...AND ASSOCIATED SHRTWV...THAT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MORE SHRA/TSRA. THIS SHOULD BE THE BEST TIME FRAME IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR THE SFC WILL CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
A COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE. THE UPPER FLOW THRU
MIDWEEK WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE COOLER
TEMPS. BY THE LADDER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE U.S. WITH AN INCREASE CHC OF A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH...THERE IS A LESS CHANCE OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND WILL
LIKELY HOLD NEAR THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...HIGHER THICKNESS VALUES WILL SPILL OVER THE PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER TEMPS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME THE
BATTLE BETWEEN THE TWO AIR MASSES WILL LEAD TO CHC/S OF
PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION AS TEMPS INCREASE NOT ONLY AT THE
SFC...BUT ALOFT...AN INCREASING CAP WILL BE PRESENT. SO MOST OF
THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE NOCTURNAL AND ALONG THE
CAPPING INVERSION. SO CHALLENGES WILL DEVELOP ON WHERE THIS
CAPPING INVERSION DEVELOPS.

SOME OF THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND. BUT THIS IS NOT CONDUCIVE WITH THE UPPER
FLOW...UNLESS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH BUILDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

IFR LEVEL CLOUDS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WANE AS IT PROGRESSES EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SHOULD SEE SCOURING OF THE LOW CLOUDS DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS...AND THEN REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN AREAS /KRNH-KEAU/ THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES...THEN GUST TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SKIES CLEAR THIS
EVE AND WINDS DECREASE TO AOB 5 KTS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER 09Z TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG
DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT AT BAY.

KMSP...
WILL SEE A FEW-HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THERE COULD BE
A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER...BUT OVERALL JUST MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN.
IFR TO EVEN LIFR CIGS SHOULD SHOW IMPROVEMENT BETWEEN 15Z AND
18Z...WITH VFR EXPECTED AFTER THAT. AFTERNOON TS REDEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST OF KMSP. SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BY 18Z...WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 22 KTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES CLEAR AFTER 00Z AND WINDS
DECREASE BELOW 5 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY...VFR. CHC AFTERNOON SHRA/TS AND MVFR. WINDS WEST 5-15 KTS.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.