Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 242133

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
333 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Cold front is moving through the area, bringing an end to a
rather mild day. Not only did MSP get to 50 degrees for the first
time in November, we managed to sneak up to 60 just before the
clouds moved in. Rain is quite weak and short lived, lasting two
or so hours at any given location. Parent low is just northeast of
Lake Superior, with the front about to go through Eau Claire at
21Z. Once the front, mid clouds and light rain move through late
afternoon and early evening, skies are quite clear and will remain
so overnight and on Saturday as upper ridge moves in and
subsidence takes hold. Surface high is well to the west, and
gradient will remain overnight. Thus northwest winds will stay
around 10 mph late tonight over most areas, and this means min
temps will mostly be in the upper 20s to mid 30s. On Saturday,
high will build in. This means modest cold advection most of the
day except in the far west during the afternoon. Central MN and
west central WI will likely only see highs in the mid and upper
30s, but areas from Canby to Fairmont should have mid and upper

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

The long term portion continues to feature a rather dry pattern,
though there is some chance for a southern stream system to brush
MN/WI Wednesday. Meanwhile, a northern stream short wave will
track across Manitoba and Northwest Ontario Tuesday, and another
Wednesday night into Thursday. The Wednesday-Thursday systems
could bring some light precip to the region. Western ridge builds
in Sunday and Monday, and both the GFS and ECMWF are indicating
low level temps almost as warm as those we had this morning. So
depending on cloud cover, Monday could be warmer than currently
forecast. As it is, we have lower 50s for the MSP area, upper 40s
for Eau Claire and St Cloud, and upper 50s for west central into
south central MN. Tend to think there won`t be a whole of mid and
high clouds on Monday, as the western ridge extends well into
Canada on Sunday and thus significant moisture will either be well
north of our area or well behind to the west and southwest.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Area of light rain is moving east quickly late this morning, and
there should be a couple hours of spotty light rain from west
central MN to west central WI. Not all is reaching the ground
with some virga. South central MN will just see some broken mid
clouds and mostly aloft echoes, though a few showers may reach the
ground. After precip clears, expect mostly clear skies.

Other concern is wind. Direction will vary between west and
northwest, but should mostly be northwest this afternoon in MN,
and become northwest by mid/late afternoon at KEAU and KRPD.
Gusts over 20 knots are also expected this afternoon with gradient
and some mixing.

KMSP...Winds will mostly be west-northwest this afternoon with
some gusts over 20 knots. There may be some lesser winds at times
down to 7-8 knots, but the weaker winds shouldn`t last very long.
Also, few showers are possible but they would be light. showers
will be a little more prevalent north and east of KMSP.

Sun...VFR. Winds NW 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR. Winds S 10G20 kts.
Tue...VFR. Winds S 5-10 kts.




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