Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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449
FXUS63 KMPX 220904
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
404 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY.  THE SURFACE ANTI CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
WORKS ITS WAY FURTHER EAST DURING THE DAY...AND WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES FROM ABOUT 800MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WHICH WOULD YIELD TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE QUITE LARGE
AGAIN...WITH DEW POINTS IN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY THE AFTERNOON.

CONCERN ABOUT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT HAS FADED AS MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF HOLDING OFF ANY
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS FAR NORTH FROM A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT PERSIST TONIGHT. SO...LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

QUITE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL COMMENCE FOR THE REGION STARTING
SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...MAINLY DUE IN THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE TO A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER
THE SERN CONUS. THIS WILL PROMOTE STOIC SWLY FLOW ACRS THE AREA
WHICH WILL BRING WRN GOMEX MOISTURE INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS WHILE
SEVERAL SFC AND UPR LVL DISTURBANCES RIDE NEWD ALONG THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SERN HIGH PRES DOME. AN SFC LOW PRES CENTER WILL
DEVELOP OVER ERN CO/WRN KS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT NEWD SUN-TUE. HAVE SLOWED ITS PROGRESSION AS THAT HAS BEEN
THE TREND IN THE NAM/EC COMBINATION...SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS ON
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP NOW LOOK TO BE SUN
INTO MON...SO THAT IS WHEN LIKELY POPS ARE MOST PREVALENT. THE SFC
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS AIDED BY A KICKER UPR LVL TROF COMING OUT OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. WITH PWATS
RISING TO ARND 1.50 INCHES...AND IN SOME SPOTS MORE...ALONG WITH
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER SHEAR/INSTABILITY...NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER BUT THERE MAY BE SOME HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY TUE
MRNG...LEAVING A RATHER DIFFUSE SFC PRES PATTERN FOR WED-THU. WITH
THE OCNL UPR LVL WAVE PASSING BY WITHIN A CONTINUED MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS. NOT LOOKING FOR WASHOUTS FOR ANY OF THE DAYS IN
THE EXTENDED AS THE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE OF THE HIT-AND-MISS
VARIETY BUT HIGHEST POPS DO COME OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION OVER THE
WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A QUIET PERIOD CONTINUES WITH VFR SKC AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REGION. LIGHT NW WINDS AT THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD WILL BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND THEN
SOUTHERLY 4-8 KNOTS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...NO CONCERNS THIS PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA/-TSRA LATE. WINDS S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
      WINDS S 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH



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