Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 120503 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1203 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

A LINGERING WEAK SFC TROF HAS FINALLY WEAKENED AND SHIFTED OFF TO
THE E. WHILE SHOWERS CAME TO AN END RELATIVELY EARLY TODAY...THE
WIND DIRECTIONS SURROUNDING THIS TROUGH WERE QUITE THE CHALLENGE
TO PIN DOWN. BY LATE THIS AFTN HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE BECOME
PREVAILING NORTHWEST AND WILL REMAIN AS SUCH INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HRS. AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A LEADING WMFNT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING. AS THIS WMFNT SHIFTS ACRS THE REGION...WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO SE BY LATE THIS EVENING AND SUPPORT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
INCRG TO ARND 10 MPH. IN ADDITION...HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN
FROM THE W AS WE LOSE THE AFTN POP-UP CUMULUS CLOUDS THANKS TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE UPR LVL STRATUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AND LOWER WHILE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE FED INTO THE
APPROACHING LOW FROM THE S. STRONG INCREASES IN ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG THE 290K-300K SFCS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERY PRECIP TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...THE FIRST FEW HRS OF THE PRECIP WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS HIGH AS 25-30
DEG F. ONCE THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FILLS IN...THEN MORE STEADY
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE SAT MRNG. HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
INCRS POPS LARGELY INTO THE 60-70 PERCENT RANGE...WITH ERN
PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE. THERE
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD 0.25-0.50" QPF RANGE FOR CENTRAL AND ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SO IF CONVECTION
DEVELOPS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL STEADILY WANE LATE SAT MRNG INTO
SAT AFTN AS THE LOW PRES CENTER SHIFTS TO THE E OF THE CWFA...
POSSIBLY LEADING TO A DRY AFTN FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA.

MILD TEMPS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THRU SAT THANKS TO THE
PREVAILING LLVL SLY COMPONENT AND SW-NE FLOW ALOFT. MIN TEMPS TNGT
WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 40-50 DEG F RANGE WHILE HIGHS ON SAT WILL
CLIMB TO THE 60-70 DEG F RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHTS WX IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOWEST 1KM
ATMOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILE AND HOW MUCH ENERGY WITH A SECONDARY
SHRTWV INTERACTS WITH THE PHASING OF THE SOUTHERN/NORTHERN JETS.

CURRENT MODEL TRENDS REMAIN TOO UNCERTAIN ON HOW FAR NW THE
PRECIPITATION FIELD MOVES INTO FAR SOUTHERN MN AND PARTS OF WESTERN
WI...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-94. THIS IS DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH DRIER AIR
IS ADVECTED SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN SATURDAY MORNING...AND HOW MUCH
OVERRUNNING DEVELOPS TO OFFSET THE INITIAL DRY ATMOSPHERE ONCE THE
SECONDARY SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH THE EC PRECIPITATION FIELD HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY TO THE NW
WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUN SUNDAY MORNING...BY SUNDAY AFTN MOST OF
THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SE CWA. THEREFORE...
HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT QPF ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER...NE
TO NEAR KEAU FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY
WILL BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW...BUT BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING...IT WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH TO HAVE A MIXTURE OF SNOW/RAIN...WITH ALL SNOW BY
MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL BE WELL SE OF MPX CWA.

IT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS ANOTHER POTENT STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS...AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. IT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED IN
TERMS OF MORE ACTIVE WX...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE DIFFICULT
BASED ON TIMING AND THE INITIAL AIR MASS IN PLACE AT THE TIME THE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL BE COMMON SUNDAY/MONDAY/
TUESDAY...WITH SOME MODIFICATION WED/THU ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
E/SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AS THE COLDER AIR MASS
SETTLES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AT TAF ISSUANCE
TIME AND WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. RAIN
MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH LATE TO BRIEFLY REDUCE VIS TO MVFR LEVELS AT
TIMES. COULD ALSO SEE MVFR CIGS ACROSS WISCONSIN FOLLOWING THE
RAIN SATURDAY MORNING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO PUT THIS IN THE TAFS
ATTM.

KMSP...RAIN WILL BEGIN PUSHING IN ABOUT 09Z...PERSISTING 3 TO 4
HOURS. DESPITE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VIS IN THE RAIN...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/SHRA. WINDS N 10-15 KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

RIVERS RUNNING HIGH BUT BEHAVING THEMSELVES EXCEPT FOR THE CHIPPEWA
IN WI. COMBO OF SNOWMELT AND ABOUT .75 INCH QPF LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
TO DRIVE DURAND ABOVE FS LATER ON SAT...SO ISSUING FLW FOR THAT
REACH. EAU CLAIRE WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FS...BUT ANY EXTRA
QPF OVER FCST COULD PUSH THEM ABV FS AND WILL CONTINUE WATCH FOR
THEM AS A RESULT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WIZ025-026-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
HYDROLOGY...CCS







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