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000
FXUS63 KARX 151635
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1135 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Main impactful weather concerns are on frost potential tonight.

Low pressure continues to track northeast across Lake Michigan and
Northern Michigan early this morning. Light rain and areas of
drizzle will continue for areas mainly along and north of Interstate
90 early this morning thanks to moisture wrapping around the back
side of the low. This activity will push east of the area by noon
this morning with gradual decreasing clouds expected mainly this
afternoon. We will have an increase in cloud cover this evening
in the 6-12 kft layer as a weak upper trough moves through. We are
not expecting any precipitation with this feature with drier air
near the surface and high pressure edging in from the west.
However, this will delay cooling a bit for the evening and
overnight hours which raises some questions for low temperatures
tonight. Thinking we will cool into the 30s and possibly upper 20s
in cold favored spots, but we won`t see these cooler temperatures
until later in the night thanks to the batch of clouds moving
through. Will be holding off on a frost advisory given the
potential for this cloud cover to impact lows.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Outstanding weather expected the rest of the week.  Dry conditions
expected all the way through Friday.

Weak ridging builds across much of the northern CONUS on Tuesday
then flow aloft turns more zonal. This will bring a weak frontal
boundary through the region on Wednesday. The boundary will only
create an increasing pressure gradient with breezy south winds
expected, especially Wednesday afternoon. Friday will be a rather
mild and breezy day across the region. In fact, high temperatures
could climb into the mid 70s at many locations given the latest
forecast model trends. Will have to keep a close eye on dew points
Wednesday and Friday with the potential for them to mix lower
during the afternoon hours. Forecast soundings are hinting at
this potential too. A cold front front slides east across the
Northern Plains Saturday and moves into the Upper Mississippi
River valley by late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. This
will be the next chance for rain across the area. Saturday could
be another warmer day with good mixing ahead of the front with
breezy south/southwest winds. We should once again see highs climb
into the lower and possibly middle 70s at many locations.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Plan on MVFR stratocumulus clouds to erode from west to east
through this afternoon. A mid-level trough of low pressure will
then bring some altocumulus in later this afternoon into this
evening with bases generally above 10kft. The bulk of this cloud
is expected to pass north of the KRST/KLSE airports but will
likely see a couple brief periods of broken ceilings, then
clearing again/VFR conditions after midnight as a ridge of high
pressure builds in from the Plains. Otherwise, plan on northwest
winds to continue on a downward trend through this afternoon with
light westerly winds, generally less than 10kt, tonight into
Monday.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wetenkamp
LONG TERM...Wetenkamp
AVIATION...DAS