Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 022232
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
530 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON BREEZY AND GUSTY
WINDS ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS .

WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT MAXIMUM MIXING IN THE 2 PM TO 6 PM
TIMEFRAME AS WE MIX TO NEARLY 800 MB AND TAP THE 30 TO 35 KT WIND
CORE. WE SHOULD SEE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
WITH A TRAILING AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED STORMS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH
THE STORMS WILL BE THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE CAPE TO SUPPORT THE
STORMS. WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER WIND GUSTS NEAR ANY
STORMS...BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS  IS IN
QUESTION. HAVE LIMITED THUNDER COVERAGE TO AROUND 30
PERCENT...THINKING SHOWERS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT  WEATHER WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS . THE BULK OF THE LIGHT RAINFALL WILL BE
ACROSS WISCONSIN WHERE  THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS
PRESENT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
TOO. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL  TO WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
THE CURRENT FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME TO AN END TUESDAY NIGHT.
A BREEZY AND COOLER DAY IS IN STORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE FROST POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...WINDS ALOFT COULD ENHANCE MIXING AND LIMIT ANY FROST
POTENTIAL. HAVE NOT ADDED FROST TO THE FORECAST YET BUT IT MAY BE
NEEDED IF THESE WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT CORRECT IN THE FORECAST
MODELS. WE COULD SEE AN AREA OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS ON THURSDAY ON
THE NOSE OF WARMER AIR EDGING IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN HOW DRY THE
SUB CLOUD LAYER IS...REALLY DOUBTING THAT WE WOULD SEE ANY SHOWERS
SO HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY
AND WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH RIDING OVERHEAD AND WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.
HAVE NUDGED HIGHS ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN THE PATTERN AND
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF GUIDANCE...PRODUCING HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE INT FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

CU FIELD WILL GIVE WAY TO SKC/SCT CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH MORE CU
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING TUE. MID/HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTH. LIKELY SEE SOME SCT -SHRA/ISOLD TS MOVING IN TOWARD 00Z WED.
BETTER CHANCES BETWEEN 00-05Z TUE EVENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING
ANY MENTION FOR THIS CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE SAGGY PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS TIGHTENS TUE MORNING THOUGH...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDING
POINTING TO MIXING AND WIND GUSTS INTO THE MID 20 KTS BY THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES LOOK TO FALL INTO THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE BUT COULD FALL
INTO THE UPPER 20S OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ALSO...SHOWERS AND
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAY BE MORE
SCATTERED NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT...SO THIS LIKELY WON/T BE A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH RAIN AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10
INCH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP



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