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000
FXUS63 KARX 062054
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
254 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WY/SD BORDER. MARCH SUN WAS
WORKING ON THE STRATUS THAT WAS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT INTO TODAY. A
DIMINISHING TREND HAS BEEN OCCURRING WITH THE STRATUS ALL DAY WHILE
HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING IN FROM THE PLAINS IN WARM AIR ADVECTION.
SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH WAS
STARTING TO DRAW IN MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS AND
PARTIAL SUNSHINE WAS RESULTING IN TEMPERATURE READINGS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S.

LOOK FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE
ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY. RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY/S HIGHS IN THE 20S.
MODELS STILL AT ODDS ON WHETHER TO PRECIPITATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY. AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL/BUFKIT
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...NOT ANYMORE CONFIDENT ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/TYPES OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL
SHOWING MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WITH SATURATION OCCURRING IN THE LOWEST
3KFT. THIS WOULD INDICATE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF DRIZZLE. AIR/ROADWAY SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD PRODUCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM LATE TONIGHT NORTH OF I-94
...AND THEN OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DURING FRIDAY MORNING.
NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR DRIZZLE OCCURRING IS LACK OF ANY LIFT WITHIN THE
STRATUS CLOUD FOR COLLISION/COALESCENCE PROCESS. SO...COULD JUST END
UP BEING AN INCREASE IN STRATUS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
NOTHING PRECIPITATING. IF ANY DRIZZLE DID INDEED OCCUR...IT WOULD BE
ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE WITH GENERALLY A TRACE TO A HUNDREDTH OF AN
INCH OF ICING. DAYTIME WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 30S WOULD SHUT
OFF FREEZING DRIZZLE/ICING POTENTIAL BY LATE MORNING. BASED ON THE
UNCERTAINTY OF SATURATION AND DOUBT FOR ACTUAL PRECIPITATION WILL
KEEP LOWER-END POPS GOING. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS WARMING INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S.

AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT...A WEAK MID-LEVEL
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS CAUSING
LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF DRIZZLE/SOME SLEET/AND LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF I-90
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED ICING AS WELL. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT
WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH THE ENTIRE COLUMN CONTINUES TO
COOL. AMOUNTS WOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCHES OR LESS. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO NEAR 20 ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

COLDER AIR WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 20S.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS...STEERING THE STORM TRACK UP
INTO CANADA. THIS WILL DRAW MILDER/DOWNSLOPED AIR IN FROM THE
PLAINS...RESULTING IN HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 35-40 DEGREE RANGE AND
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.

COOLER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS
THE RESULT OF A TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 30S ON TUESDAY...AND
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS ANOTHER TROUGH INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN
THE MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW AND LOW CEILINGS. WINDS HAVE STARTED GUSTING TO AROUND
26KTS AT RST AND HAS CAUSED SOME 4SM BLOWING SNOW. WITH A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE...THIS BLOWING SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY CAUSING
SOME LOW CEILINGS AROUND 900FT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE
THIS EVENING BEFORE SOME IFR CEILINGS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ALONG
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET STREAK. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 50KTS AND CAUSE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT. AS THESE
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS COME IN...CEILINGS SHOULD ALSO DROP DOWN TO
BETWEEN 500-1000FT. AS THE WINDS SHIFT EAST TOWARD
DAYBREAK...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ANOTHER
LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL COME IN WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH APPEARS
THAT IT WILL BE IN BY LATE MORNING. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS
POSSIBLE AS WELL OVERNIGHT AND AFTER THE FRONT COMES THROUGH...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PUT IT INTO THE TAFS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....HALBACH