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000
FXUS63 KARX 262131
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
331 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE LINGERING FREEZING DRIZZLE
CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS SURFACE LOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN MN/IA. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THIS
FRONT WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI WITH REPORTS OF SOME SLIPPERY STRETCHES ON ROADWAYS VIA
WI 511 AND FROM LOCAL ROAD CREW.

LOOK FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MAIN LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS LOW ...WHICH IS PRESENTLY CAUSING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL THEREFORE BE IN A WANING PHASE WITH ITS PASSAGE. HOWEVER...RAP
BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWS SOME LINGERING LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL WI THROUGH
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL/SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH HANGS
UP. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO CARRY FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION INTO
THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW AS WELL WITH POCKETS OF
FEEDER/SEEDER ICE. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND CURRENT ADVISORY A LITTLE
LONGER INTO THIS EVENING TO COVER FOR THIS. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
IT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR
QUIET WEATHER. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THOUGH DESPITE
HIGH BUILDING IN DUE TO MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...PLAN ON HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS. DESPITE AN INCREASE IN
STRATUS CLOUD...LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 30S WITH POSSIBLY A FEW
LOWER 40 READINGS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

A WINTRY MIX LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF ICE IN CLOUD FOR SNOW
PRODUCTION...SO LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS
TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY FOR SNOW CHANCES.

OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PATTERN SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S...COOLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT KLSE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON  AND
COULD POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS DRIZZLE AT THE
SURFACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST THEN
TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT EDGES IN. PLAN ON
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT KLSE.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP