Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 282019
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
319 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW CONTINUES TO BE ON THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AND HOW COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE.

LONGWAVE OMEGA BLOCK IS IN PLACE ACROSS CANADA WHICH IS KEEPING
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN A COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. WITH THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL CUT OFF LOW CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC...THE MAIN FORCING FOCUS IS ON ANY SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THAT ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH.
CURRENTLY...THERE IS A WEAK 700-500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN ONTARIO WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRACK
THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH APPEARS TO
WEAKEN AS IT DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TONIGHT.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ORIENTED SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AND SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. MLCAPE STAYS ON THE WEAK SIDE AT
ABOUT 500J/KG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD WHEN THIS
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME VERY
SMALL HAIL WITH 28.12Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIS SKINNY CAPE
IN THE 0C TO -15C RANGE. HAVE UPPED POPS A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...BUT MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH IF THE SHALLOW CONVECTION
BECOMES WIDESPREAD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BEYOND TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT WE WILL STAY IN A
COOL PATTERN WITH THE OMEGA BLOCK HOLDING FIRM BUT CONFIDENCE WILL
REMAIN LOW WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THEY WILL MAINLY HANG
ONTO ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROUNDING THE CLOSED LOW. THE NEXT BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN THAT FEATURE SOME STRONGER LIFT INCLUDES FRIDAY
AS ANOTHER TROUGH WOBBLES AROUND THE CUT OFF LOW AND THEN INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS
AND BRINGS A FRONT INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. DIURNAL CUMULUS
WITH BASES 5 TO 7 KFT WILL SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING...BUT THEN A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DIP SOUTH BY 06Z. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE BUT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR TUESDAY...A MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER
18Z. THE GREATER FORCING AND DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE EAST OF KRST/KLSE
BUT A SHOWER/STORM MENTION MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE NEXT TAF
CYCLE AT KLSE.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION.....ZT


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