Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 252302
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
500 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 144 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Main forecast concerns in the short-term are on temperatures.

Weak high pressure moves across the region tonight into Monday
providing dry and quiet weather. High temperatures on Monday could
be a little tricky with the fresh snowpack in northern and western
areas. Have increased highs just slightly mainly over far
northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin where highs should climb
into the lower to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 144 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Main forecast concerns in the long-term on a potential winter storm
midweek and high temperatures leading to melting snow and possible
ice jamming.

Tuesday looks to be rather mild day across the region with warmer
south/southwesterly  flow in place. Highs could climb well into
the upper 40s to lower 50s over extreme northeast Iowa and
southwest into central Wisconsin. Melting snow could create rises
on area rivers and lead to the potential for ice jams. A weak
trough moves through Tuesday night and may bring some light rain
or snow to the region. Any rain or snow accumulation would be very
light.

Focus then quickly turns to a potential storm system Wednesday
into Thursday with the possibility of rain and accumulating snow.
Confidence on the storm track is very low with the GEFS showing
large spreads. The operation GFS is one of the most aggressive
solutions with snowfall and is a far outlier at this time. The 12Z
ECMWF has now taken the system much further south. Certainly a
system to keep a close eye on as there is the potential for heavy
snow and rainfall. High pressure then builds in for Friday with
quiet and dry weather returning. Milder temperatures then look to
continue into the weekend with highs mainly in the upper 30s to
lower 40s and lows in the upper teens to 20s. The next chance for
precipitation arrives Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 500 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Cigs/WX/Vsby: high pressure will be the main weather feature tonight-
Mon, keeping the TAF sites under vfr/skc conditions.

Winds: generally southwest/south through the period. Some decrease
in speeds later this evening, with diurnal bump for Mon afternoon.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 144 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Little to no precipitation is expected through Wednesday. However,
strong warming Monday into the middle of the week could cause river
ice to break up, increasing the potential for ice jams. Persons near
rivers and streams should monitor ice conditions closely and report
rapid water level rises or flooding.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wetenkamp
LONG TERM...Wetenkamp
AVIATION...Rieck
HYDROLOGY...Wetenkamp


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