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000
FXUS63 KARX 041720
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1120 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

A COLD AIR MASS PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE
ZERO. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON SO
WE SHOULD SEE SOME FLAT CUMULUS DEVELOP AND MAY SEE A COUPLE OF
FLURRIES AS WELL. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL MAKE IT
FEEL RATHER RAW TODAY WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS BELOW ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A BITTERLY COLD NIGHT
IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO AND A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE REGION STAYS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A
COUPLE OF WEEK DISTURBANCES POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND COULD PRODUCE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA. THE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM COULD MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND
BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN TO THE REGION. LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE  WITH THESE TWO FEATURES WITH FORECAST MODELS SHOWING
TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES IN THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW. HOPE IS
ON THE HORIZON FOR A POTENTIAL WARM UP NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS
EVEN HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME 50 DEGREE READINGS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

TAF SITES TO BE DOMINATED BY ONE LAST CAN/ARCTIC HIGH THRU TONIGHT/
THU...BEFORE A WARMUP STARTS FRI INTO NEXT WEEK. GOOD VFR...
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THRU NOON THU. STEEP LOWER LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND BIT OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LOOK TO RESULT IN SOME
GUSTINESS OF THE NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH FEW/
SCT STRATO-CU IN THE 3K-4K FT RANGE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM....WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RRS