Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 142307
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
607 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy conditions Saturday with gusts up to 40 miles per hour
  potentially.

- Colder temperatures Sunday into Monday with below normal
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

This evening into Friday

Latest 18z surface analysis shows front extending from southern
Michigan into northern Missouri. North of the front light rain is
occurring over southern Wisconsin per KARX radar. As surface front
slowly tracks south this evening...rain will push south/east of the
forecast area and end across the far southern forecast area by 04z
Friday.

Northerly flow aloft will filter in drier airmass tonight into
Friday. With mostly sunny skies and temperatures warming slightly
plus 2 to plus 7 degrees celsius at 925mb...highs Friday will climb
into the upper 40s to middle 50s.

Saturday into Sunday

Upper level trough digs over the Upper Great Lakes Region Saturday
into Sunday. Decent forcing/vertical motion is associated with the
upper level trough Saturday morning. However limited saturation
occurs across much of the forecast area late Friday night/Saturday
morning. At this time...the best saturation through the atmosphere
column is confined across northern Wisconsin and parts of north
central Wisconsin. Have kept slight/small chances of light rain or
snow showers across north central Wisconsin late Friday night into
Saturday morning. During the day...daytime heating and cooler air
aloft will produce cumulus clouds. Bufkit soundings indicates a thin
layer of saturation where the clouds form and do not expect any
precipitation to reach the surface mainly Saturday afternoon.

With passage of surface front Saturday morning...pressure gradient
tightens behind the surface front and winds will increase Saturday
morning. Latest 14.12z GFS/NAM bufkit soundings show through the
mixed layer of near 20 to 30 knots across the forecast area and at
the top of the mix layer of near 35 knots briefly during the day
Saturday. Wind speeds are expected to be 20 to 30 miles per hour
with gusts up to 40 miles per hour.

Also...with the surface front passage colder air advects into
the forecast area. Latest 14.12z GFS/NAM shows 925mb
temperatures of minus 4 to minus 8 degrees celsius by 12z
Sunday. Saturday night low temperatures will fall into the 20s
and highs are expected to rise mainly into the 30s.


Monday night through Thursday

Main forecast concerns from Monday night into Thursday are mainly
temperatures through the period. Upper level trough over northeast
United States allows northerly flow aloft over the Upper Great Lakes
Region through middle of next week. A couple of pieces of energy
embedded in the northerly flow aloft will track over the area and
possibly produce light rain/snow showers Monday night/Tuesday
morning. With the northerly flow aloft over the region...cooler
airmass filters into the forecast area Monday into Tuesday.
925mb temperatures are expected to be minus 5 to minus 10
degrees celsius by 00z Tuesday and highs will be in the 30s to
40s Monday into Tuesday. Lows will fall into the teens to lower
20s. Upper level trough breaks down and shortwave ridge builds
into the Northern Plains/Upper Great Lakes Region Wednesday into
Thursday. Differences occur with the strength of the upper
level shortwave ridge/trough over the Northern Plains/northeast
United States per ensembles members of the GEFS/ECMWF. Latest
GEFS/ECMWF suggest slightly warmer temperatures Wednesday
temperatures. Depending on placement of surface front...light
rain showers are possible Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 607 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

VFR conditions will continue with high clouds gradually clearing
overnight and diminishing winds. Westerly winds will increase
into the 10-15 kt range by Friday afternoon with a few gusts up
to 20 kts.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DTJ
AVIATION...JM


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