Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 281130
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
530 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST NEW YEARS
DAY...PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE TEMPERATURES/CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
28.00Z MODEL SUITE MASS/THERMAL FIELDS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL
USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

FOR TODAY...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST ND AND
NORTHWEST MN WILL DROP SOUTH AND MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY
29.00Z. PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH. SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN
UPSTREAM OBS...BUT LIFT IS VERY WEAK AND WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTION AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 20S ACROSS THE FRESH SNOWPACK TO THE LOWER 30S FOR AREAS
THAT ARE STILL SNOW FREE.

28.00Z NAM CLIPS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT QPF ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING 500 HPA WAVE...
BUT THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM HAVE DRIED CONSIDERABLY WITH NO PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS
TONIGHT WITH ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF FLURRIES. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL TEMPER COOLING SOMEWHAT...BUT WITH PERSISTENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
NEAREST THE STRONGEST FORCING FROM WYOMING TO KANSAS. REMOVED ALL
POPS FOR MONDAY AS WELL.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MASSIVE 1050 HPA SURFACE HIGH WILL
DROP FROM CENTRAL MT TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THIS
FEATURE. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL ENSUE WITH 925 HPA TEMPERATURES
PLUMMETING TO -20 C BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...TUESDAY HIGHS
NOT LIKELY TO RISE ABOVE 10 DEGREES EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST WI. MORNING LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WILL DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WIND UP TO
10 MPH...EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 15 TO 25 BELOW ACROSS A
LARGE SWATH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TOO EARLY TO HOIST AN ADVISORY...
BUT WILL LIKELY NEED ONE BOTH MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI.

LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE
ZONAL ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SOMEWHAT. DAILY HIGHS WILL
INCREASE DAY-TO-DAY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY FRIDAY.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT BREEZY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY WITH 0.5 KM WINDS INCREASING UP TO 40 KTS. NEAR
SURFACE INVERSION WILL KEEP FULL EXTENT FROM REACHING GROUND
LEVEL...BUT GUSTS TO 25 MPH STILL POSSIBLE.

SNOW CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG FOUR
CORNERS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. GFS/ECMWF SHOW A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW
SURGING INTO MI BY MID-DAY SATURDAY WITH A LARGE PRECIP SHIELD
EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL IA INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND WESTERN
WI. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW POTENTIAL...BUT FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WITH
20 TO 30 POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...MOVING
THRU THE TAF SITES AROUND THE NOON HOUR. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOME
SCT-BKN 8-12K FT ALTO-CUMULUS CAN BE EXPECTED. BEHIND THE FRONT...A
BAND OF MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR RETURNS BY MID EVENING WITH CLOUDS AFTER 01-03Z AGAIN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. WITH DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH FOR THE AFTERNOON THEN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A SECOND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM....ROGERS
AVIATION.....RRS



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