Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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466
FXUS63 KARX 170440
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1140 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Models in lock-step with zonal/ridging in the upper level flow into
Friday. A couple weak ripples move through in the middle part of the
week, but moisture is lacking and not expecting a pcpn threat.
Mostly, its about a return to above normal temperatures. NAEFS 850
mb temp anomalies continue to hover around +1 to +2 through
Friday. Looking for highs from the mid 60s to mid 70s, with Friday
still looking like it could be the warmest of the bunch. Overall,
a nice break from the cool, wet conditions of the past many days.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Both the GFS and EC take a trough from the west coast due east,
sliding it through the Upper Mississippi River Valley Sat night/Sun.
Its associated cold front leads the system into the region with
decent low level moisture return and a little instability to play
with it. Both models develop convection along and behind the
front, focusing on Sat night-Sun morning for the higher rain
threat. The GFS is suggestive of a few ripples working their way
out of the mean trough Fri night-Sat, which could result in
pockets of showers/storms. EC more subdued with these chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

The core of the strongest low level winds should be over the area
at this time. This core of stronger winds will be shifting to the
east and away from the area through the overnight as the weak
trough aloft moves across the Upper Midwest. This will allow the
low level wind shear to end at both airports before sunrise. After
that, VFR conditions expected through Tuesday evening with little
to no cloud cover and south to southwest winds of 10 knots or
less.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rieck
LONG TERM....Rieck
AVIATION...04



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