


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
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388 FXUS63 KARX 131125 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 625 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Smokey skies today and again on Monday from Canadian wildfires. - Increased chances (40 to 60%) for widespread showers and storms Tuesday night into Wednesday. Severe potential remains uncertain at this time. - Cooler temperatures for the end of the week with highs in the 70s and low 80s from Thursday through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Today-Monday: Mostly Dry, Smokey Skies Northwest flow remains in place into early next week. As one shortwave moved through Saturday, another passes through the Upper Midwest today. Behind this wave a weak cold front will gradually shift southeastward into central Minnesota this afternoon. By the evening, it is expected to stall out just to the northwest of our CWA. As a result, can`t rule out an isolated shower or storm this evening in our northwestern portion of the CWA, roughly from Mower County, Minnesota to Clark County, Wisconsin. Depending on where exactly this boundary stalls, a stray shower or storm could form Sunday night into Monday morning along this boundary. Heading into Monday, another boundary enters the region and shifts southward. Depending on how strong and how far this boundary goes, will determine where precipitation chances exist. Recent CAM runs have the area of better theta e advection in central and northeast Wisconsin. This would be the area where showers and storms could form as the theta e advection isn`t as strong in our CWA. Smoke from Canadian wildfires will continue to impact the Upper Midwest today and again on Monday. This will result in hazy skies and some reductions in visibility. The best chances for impacts to visibilities will be tonight through this afternoon and again on Monday. With daytime mixing, the near surface smoke impacts may not be as bad. Temperatures for today will be near normal or slightly below normal due to the northwest flow, with highs generally in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Tuesday-Wednesday: Potential for Widespread Showers and Storms Upper-level flow pattern shifts from northwesterly to southwesterly allowing for a shortwave and resultant surface low to move into the region. This wave will have a surface cold front to help initiate a line of storms in central Minnesota Tuesday afternoon. These showers and storms will shift southeast during the day and if they hold together they could potentially impact northwestern parts of our CWA Tuesday night. This front will then position itself somewhere within our CWA on Wednesday. Ahead of this front more storms will initiate in northeast Iowa and southwestern Wisconsin. Severe potential with either of these rounds of storms is too early to tell at this moment, but if storms do fire, some could be on the stronger side. Thursday-Sunday: Periodic Showers and Storms, Cooler Uncertainty in the extended forecast as timing and location differences of various shortwaves impact the rain potential across the CWA. There is a slightly better signal for another system next weekend as most ensembles have a shortwave trough impacting the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes but there are discrepancies in strength, location, and timing of the trough potentially impacting the region. Regardless of rain potential, cooler weather is on the way as cooler air moves southward into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest for the latter part of the week. High temperatures are currently forecasted in the 70s with some low 80s mixing in for the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Main TAF concern is widespread wildfire smoke through the morning hours. Associated MVFR-IFR visibility reductions can be seen across the Upper Midwest at 13.12Z TAF issuance. Heaviest smoke expected to shift east, eventually dissipating locally through the afternoon into the evening. Reductions may remain through Monday along and north of Interstate 94 primarily affecting KMDZ locally. Very low precipitation chances this evening primarily along our northwestern periphery in southeast Minnesota and central Wisconsin. Low precipitation chances along eastern periphery in central Wisconsin Monday evening-night. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cecava AVIATION...JAR