Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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454
FXUS63 KARX 070548
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1148 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

WILL HOLD ONTO THE BLIZZARD WATCH FOR ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE
MAKING A DECISION ON A POSSIBLE WARNING VS ADVISORY. STRONGEST
WIND CORRIDOR (50 PLUS KTS AT 850 HPA) LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY IS ALONG THE ND/MN BORDER INTO SOUTHWEST MN WITH OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES ON THE EASTERNMOST EXTENT OF THE STRONGER WINDS
(35 TO 40 KTS AT 850 HPA). THIS ALONE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
BREAK UP CURRENT SNOW PACK WHICH DOES HAVE A BIT OF A CRUST ON
TOP. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1 TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHETHER THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND SNOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE
TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS (FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 MPH CAUSING
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BELOW 1/4 MILE) VS ADVISORY LEVEL
BLOWING SNOW. EITHER WAY FROM AN IMPACTS PERSPECTIVE...TRAVEL MAY
BE DIFFICULT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PERSONS WITH TRAVEL PLANS
SHOULD STAY UP-TO-DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS/HEADLINES AS WELL
AS ROAD CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CONCERN FOCUSED ON INCOMING STORM SYSTEM WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING POTENT MID-LEVEL/SURFACE
LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED-
BROKEN MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH SOME PATCHY LOWER STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RESPONDING NICELY TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...MAY HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS COLUMN SATURATES IN LIFT. NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING EXPECTED THOUGH. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...EXPECTING
JUST A SMALL DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER
20S/NEAR 30.

AS THE DEEP 995-1000MB LOW PROGRESSES EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. PLAN ON WINDS TO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST
INTO THE 15-25 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO 35 MPH
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI FOR AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE OPEN
AREAS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN. THE COMBINATION OF FALLING SNOW
OF AROUND 1/2 INCH AND BLOWING OF THE LOOSE SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND
MAY PRODUCE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF A
LINE FROM DODGE CENTER MN THROUGH NEW HAMPTON IA BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.

LOOK FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ALONG WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION/STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30
MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THE MORE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
MN/NORTHEAST IA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PLAN ON ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FROM
THESE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
THE FALLING SNOW/SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...WITH HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AS WELL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERELY REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND DRIFTING ACROSS ROADWAYS.

AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA FROM 3 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 6 PM
MONDAY. SEE BLIZZARD WATCH STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

LOOK FOR SNOW SHOWERS/WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW PULLS FARTHER INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S SUNDAY...FALLING INTO
THE TEENS/20S ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...COLDER/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
SETS UP ALOFT. THIS WILL TAP MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

A COUPLE WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHS DROP THROUGH THIS FLOW...BUT LOOKS
RIGHT NOW LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW REMAIN WEST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT TAF AIRFIELDS THROUGH AT LEAST
07.18Z WITH ONLY PERIODS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SNOW...WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 30 KTS OR MORE AT KRST...MAY RESULT IN
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS BELOW 1 SM AFTER 08.00Z. GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF ANY SNOW
SHOWERS...WILL ONLY INTRODUCE SOME SNOW AT 08.00Z WITH MVFR
VISIBILITY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH MULTIPLE UPDATES ARE LIKELY ONCE
DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AT
KLSE SO ANY REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DUE TO SNOW SHOULD REMAIN
WITHIN THE MVFR RANGE. CEILINGS WILL DROP BELOW 3000 FT AGL AT
BOTH SITES BEHIND THE FRONT...REMAINING MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MNZ086-094.

IA...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR IAZ008-009-018-019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS



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