Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 292008
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW IS WITH THE CLOUDS/WINDS THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS A POTENT MID LEVEL
TROUGH RACES TO THE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL MOVE IN AS WELL AND HELP TO DROP THESE WINDS DOWN
WHICH WILL TIME WELL WITH LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6
PM.

THIS LAST BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE/MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
WELL WITH SKIES ALREADY CLEARING TO THE WEST IN MINNESOTA/IOWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH OVERNIGHT AS THERE IS NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL
ROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND WILL DROP DOWN INTO
THE REGION TOMORROW. THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
SOUTHWEST THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK. THE 29.12Z ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FURTHEST SOUTHWEST WITH HAVING THE LOW COME
THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN WHILE THE 29.12Z NAM/GFS/GEM
ALL TAKE THE LOW FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA/CENTRAL
WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS SURFACE LOW
TRACK. THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE NAM/GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT IT
SHOULD MAINLY FALL AS RAIN WITH MUCH OF THE LOW LEVELS BEING ABOVE
FREEZING. SO...WHILE MOST GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT WESTERN
WISCONSIN WOULD STAY DRY TOMORROW...HAD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ECMWF
AND BROUGHT SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO WEDNESDAY WITH HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB ALONG WITH WHEN RAIN WILL MOVE IN. THIS NEXT SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BRING A STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IN AHEAD OF IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 70F
IF THE PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE EVENING...WHICH IS WHAT
THE 29.12Z ECMWF IS SHOWING. THE 29.12Z NAM/GFS ARE FASTER WITH
DEVELOPING RAIN ALONG A BAND FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ANGLING
TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL
IOWA. 29.12Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY HIGH ON
MOISTURE CONTENT WITH A SATURATED COLUMN FROM ABOUT 800MB ON UP AS
THE BAND MOVES IN. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY SHOWING UP
IN THESE PROFILES...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A BIT OF THUNDER DUE TO
THE STRONG FORCING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THE RAIN LOOK TO OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE CORE OF THE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH.

BEYOND THIS WE ARE MAINLY LOOKING AT DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KRST AND IT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH KLSE AROUND 29.20Z. BEHIND THIS FRONT THE WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST AND ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED WINDS WIND WILL BE IN
THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
RAPIDLY WEAKEN.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN
SKIES WILL CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-
     095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
     029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...BOYNE


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