Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 031134
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
634 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO
SRN WI WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE
OUT OF THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WARMER AIR IN PLACE
TODAY ALONG WITH MORE SUN...SO HAVE HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE IF STILL HAVE THE HAZY CONDITIONS
WITH SMOKE AROUND FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES. THIS COULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO LESS AND CAUSE MORE OF A FILTERED
SUNSHINE/CLOUDY LOOK TO THE SKY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE
HIGH OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL THE FORECAST THINKING HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR ADDRESSING SOME SUBTLE CHANGES. ON SATURDAY ALL
MODELS PICK UP AND A SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THEN PUSHING EAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE SOME
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS IOWA...IT IS FAR BETTER OVER
MINNESOTA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SHEAR IS WEAK TO NON-
EXISTENT AND WITH NO FORCING OR BOUNDARY AROUND I CHOSE TO KEEP
SATURDAY DRY. RECALL THAT YESTERDAYS CONCERN WAS THAT THERE WOULD
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS LOW AS TO WHERE AND WHEN. THERE IS STILL VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE AND WHEN BUT NOW INSTABILITY IS LOWER AS WELL
SO POPS WERE STILL KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FAR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST IOWA ARE STILL NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS WITH
RESPECT TO A STAY SHOWER OR STORM.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY WHEN SUFFICIENT SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE WITH A BOUNDARY NEAR NW IA SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO QUITE A BIT OF FORCING OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SCENARIO IS THAT STORMS WILL FIRE IN
THIS AREA AND MAY MERGE INTO AN MCS AFFECTING NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY
ON AND ROLLING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE. WE MAY SEE SOME LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITH THE STORMS INITIALLY WITH HEAVY RAIN
AS WELL.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY AND WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ABOVE 11KFT HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS SOME SHEAR REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT THE
BEST SHEAR WILL LAG THE BOUNDARY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY SO
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT LOOKING AS GOOD MONDAY...AT LEAST FOR A
WIDESPREAD EVENT. STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED BY
AFTERNOON BUT BY THEN THE BOUNDARY IS OUT OR NEARLY OUT OF THE
AREA AND AS SUCH...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF OR
EXITING THE AREA.

LINGERING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE VERY FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EARLY
TUESDAY BUT HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY RETURNS BY LATE MORNING AND WILL
STAY WITH US THROUGH MID WEEK. AFTER THAT MODELS DIVERGE SOME WITH
THE GFS DRIVING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS IOWA AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND BEYOND WHILE THE EURO BUILDS A RIDGE OVER IA. FOR NOW I
KEPT CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL IOWA BUT DID LOWER
THE PERCENTAGES SOME. FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL COME AS MODELS COME
CLOSER TO AGREEMENT IN LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...03/12Z
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SOME
LIGHT FOG BEING REPORTED AT KFOD WITH VSBYS BOUNCING AROUND
BETWEEN IFR/MVFR AND VFR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS MAY STAY REDUCED
FOR AN HOUR AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EXPECTED WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE
REGION.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...BEERENDS


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