Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 300502
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1202 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED STORMS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
ACROSS SW MINNESOTA...SE SD INTO NRN NE...AND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE DMX CWA BY 00Z. DECENT CAPE IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH LITTLE SHEAR TO WORK WITH SO WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER NOT ANTICIPATED. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH ANY ACTIVITY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE INSTABILITY TO WANE TOWARD LATE
EVENING...WITH SOME POST-FRONTAL LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CWA LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ALOFT.
LOW STRATUS AND BREEZY WINDS ALSO EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND 50S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE THE DEPARTURE OF TONIGHTS
SYSTEM ALONG WITH COOL FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. OVER THE ENTIRE EXTENDED THE PATTERN REMAINS
SIMILAR WITH MORE ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC WITH AN EVENTUAL WARMING
TREND.

TONIGHTS SYSTEM WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER SATURDAY MORNING AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND SHEAR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CLOUD COVER
AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE
MID TO LATE MORNING. UPSTREAM AIRMASS RATHER INDICATIVE OF MID
SEPTEMBER OR MID MARCH WITH H850 TEMPS ONLY RECOVERING TO 4 TO 6C
BY 00Z SUNDAY. CLOUDS LIKELY TO HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...
LIMITING HIGHS TO THE 60 TO 64 DEGREE MARK...WITH A FEW AREAS
STRUGGLING TO MAKE 60. THIS IS WITHIN 5 TO 6 DEGREES OF RECORD LOW
MIN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY IN SOME CASES. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL ADD TO THE COOL CONDITIONS. FINALLY BY SATURDAY EVENING...
CLOUDS CLEAR REGION WIDE WITH RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT MINS. THOUGH
NO CHANCE FOR FROST...LOWER TO MID 40S WILL BE COMMON WITH LARGER
URBAN AREAS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. BY SUNDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. OVERALL THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
LIKELY TO BUILD AND REMAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH THE SFC FEATURES...
LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER OUR REGION UNTIL ROUGHLY MID
WEEK WHEN THE RIDGE FLATTENS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AS H500 HEIGHT/THICKNESS INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH H850
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING FROM THE 5 TO 6C FORECAST ON SUNDAY TO 12
TO 15C BY MIDWEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SOME RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE RETURN
OF MOISTURE NEXT WEEK. MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES A WEAK WAVE AND SOME
LIFT INTO OUR AREA BY LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME ADDITIONAL THUNDER FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. WILL INTRODUCE SOME POP AT THIS TIME TO COVER THE CHANCE
FOR INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AS FORCING WILL BE MAINLY
MESOSCALE IN NATURE UNTIL LATER IN THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. OUTSIDE OF PULSE STORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LOW THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MVFR TO IFR STRATUS TRAILING BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO SWITCH TO THE NORTH AT 10
TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT. MVFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY...CLEARING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL ALSO SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST
AND LESSEN TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...SKOW



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